Loving how every UK independent polling analyst I follow has got completely bored with the actual UK election result, and has now moved on to focus on pretty much two issues:
transparency / assumptions to allow unpicking of the MRP model per polling company post-election 📈
formally modeling the probability of Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition (LOTO) 🥰
There have been multiple constituency opinion polls this election and multiple MRP polls. To try to tell which MRP's are more accurate, I've compared the constituency opinion poll results with the equivalent MRP seat projections, and the results are very interesting.
Thread below, but the TLDR version is that the #Ipsos and #WeThink MRPs seem to be the closest match to the constituency polling we've seen.
VOTERS IN BRITAIN: Please be aware that today is the last day (deadline at 5pm) to apply for Voter ID if you don't already have a form of valid ID.
And please make sure that you do have a form of valid ID. Actually, I'm sure that all of you for whom this is relevant do indeed have valid ID already. So please check that your friends and relatives do too! Especially those who aren't particularly engaged in politics.
When you do follow politics closely, it's easy to forget that there are a lot of people out there for whom this is a big surprise. Help them to make sure they have valid ID if you can, help them to check not assume.
FocalData MRP analysis is worth a detailed read eg. ...
:ms_eyes: "The other potential source of error is our fieldwork dates. Interviewing people from the 3rd June - 20th we will miss the late political movement ... They (Conservatives) could face the prospect of going well below 100 seats, and towards 70 and face their own 1931 super-defeat.
Labour 450 seats
Conservatives 110
Lib Dems 50
SNP 16
Plaid Cymru 2
Reform 1
Green 1
Other 19
The Telegraph lies and lies and lies and whips up bigotry - a total rag for it's aging tory members
The DRAFT and non-statutory schools guidance was going to be reviewed anyway. but they don't say this. They're upset ofc the review will now be Labour-led ...
What they originally wanted was reported to be found to be illegal by their own Attorney General, so this was endlessly delayed ...
The draft they finally issued is imo vile, and very likely still violates the "gender reassignment" protected characteristic (protects trans kids not only adults) in the Equality Act 2010, which is not limited by age
Our local Labour candidate just dropped off ANOTHER leaflet.
I swear, I'm honestly considering emailing his team and inviting him (plus any Scottish-accented team members) to do my experiment as a way of learning about the valuable research happening at his city's universities, and demonstrating his commitment to supporting higher education.
(And maybe he could encourage his supporters to do it too!)
For UK political types interested in the big scale /modelled MRP constituency level polls (becoming a feature of the 2024 GE) Peter Inglesby is consolidating them, so you can get a snapshot. Both by poll, and by electorate and well worth a look
iNews UK: "Rishi Sunak’s public humiliation is as mortifying as it is satisfying" (by Ian Dunt)
"In each case, Sunak could have attempted to do something about the problem... He could have shown a desire to address the conditions that gave rise to food banks. He could have tried hard to secure an agreement in the various NHS disputes... He could have provided a functional asylum policy... He could have thought about how to help young people rather than providing policy punishments in a bid to placate the jealousies of the old"
"He had done none of these things. At best, as with NHS waiting times, his policy solutions were non-existent. At worst, as with Rwanda, they were actively harmful. And today, he faced the music"
"It is amusing and satisfying. But it is also something else: it is democratically necessary. The public humiliation of the Prime Minister is a demonstration of the free society working"
In lighter news, GB News' pet pollster, #PeoplePolling has come out with a corking outlier of a poll showing Labour on 35% and Reform UK on 24% of the vote (mindblowingly out of step with every other pollster), which would make Nigel Farage the leader of the opposition with over 100 seats in parliament.
I am feeling very vindicated about my decision to not report seriously the findings of this 'pollster'...
Sunak would be the first PM in history to lose their seat. Most of the cabinet would too. The Tories would have their worst result ever. Labour would win the biggest victory in Parliamentary history.
Stonehenge is literally just some old stones yet you will sincerely get people who care more about that than the lives of millions of currently existing people.
Just Stop Oil today sprayed a couple of the stones with harmless orange cornflour which will wash off without any damage at the first rain but there are people genuinely apoplectic about it.
We are a totally fucked species. Totally gone. Dead.