Loving how every UK independent polling analyst I follow has got completely bored with the actual UK election result, and has now moved on to focus on pretty much two issues:
transparency / assumptions to allow unpicking of the MRP model per polling company post-election 📈
formally modeling the probability of Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition (LOTO) 🥰
EDIT: I say probably because it's never happened before, so... 🤷♂️
Although technically LOTO is the largest parliamentary group, rather than single party, so if it comes to it expect Reform to back the Tories (and drag them even further to the right). In response the LibDems might seek backing from the Greens and Alliance, if the numbers add up.
So yes, ultimately the Speaker, based on ‘numerical strength’
Unlike PM though, which is generically ‘support of the House’, it does specifically mention party, but never defines what that means — so ‘is a coalition a party?’ could be a fun 'lil constitutional crisis to kick off the new session with
that aside though, I'm not totally sure how Greens or others would really be enticed to form an opposition alliance — what would they get?
@Natasha_Jay@jen@zbrown It's one of these things where just a slight fall in the Tory vote and/or rise in the LibDem numbers could see a large number of seats fall. First Past The Post and Gerrymandering is generally very good for the Tories, right up until the tipping point is reached and suddenly it isn't any more.
@A_C_McGregor
I suspect a lot about Reform too
Yes, there's a tipping point where the Tories fall apart and 50-60 seats becomes a reality, especially with tactical voting