A blowout wouldn’t look like the landslide reelection of President Ronald Reagan over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984. But it could mean Trump winning more Electoral College votes than expected by flipping most if not all of the states Biden won in 2020 — and even expanding the map by turning some unexpected states, like Minnesota or Virginia, red.
Emerson College Polling/The Hill surveys from April and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll last month both had Trump leading Biden in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden won each of those states except for North Carolina in 2020 en route to 306 electoral votes.
Candidates need 270 electoral votes to win. Biden won in 2020 with 306; Trump won in 2016 with 304; former President Obama won in 2012 with 332 and in 2008 with 365, winning states like Indiana, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio in the process.
In a Quinnipiac survey before the verdict, 6 percent of Trump voters said they’d be less likely to vote for the former president if he was convicted.
A YouGov poll taken after the verdict found that 27 percent of independent voters were less likely to vote for Trump — but 21 percent were made more likely.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll found 50 percent of Americans thought Trump’s guilty verdict was correct, and 49 percent said he should end his presidential campaign as a result.
A presidential forecast model from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ currently predicts Trump has a 56 percent chance of winning the election, and national polling averages put the former president up by around 1 point.
At the same time, wars in Gaza and Ukraine are showing no end in sight, and developments on the international stage could roil things for Biden in the coming months.
I dont beleive that most police forces would take an armed MAGA uprising lightly. The cops have some serious problems but that would be a direct threat to their authority and they REALLY dont like that.
Gravy seals will make an appearance and then wobble on home after they are done with the cosplay event. Standard procedure for those losers. Lots of chest beating and posturing so long as they think there won't be retaliation.
An effective offensive? Let's hope not, but they don't have to actually achieve their goals to seriously fuck things up for a generation or two.
The 9/11 hijackers were precision weapons next to most of these morons, but they are legion here, and the majority are self-funded. Nevermind that they also encompass the majority of cops and others entrusted with protecting our critical infrastructure.
Even when the system is running as intended or built to do, people on the ground and in your community are still trying to help out your fellow humans, baby steps!
Join local groups and help out when you have the time, at least you know your improving your community!
In a column published Saturday, Dowd said after the guilty verdict, she called her brother and her sister — both of whom, she said, are Republicans who had hoped for a Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley victory — to gauge whether Trump’s conviction had been a final straw for them.
“I wasn’t going to vote for Trump,” Maureen Dowd’s sister, Peggy, told her, according to Dowd’s column. “But now I am because I thought this whole thing was a sham.”
“I couldn’t get to sleep,” Dowd recounted her sister telling her. “I was dreaming that I was in jail after a sham court trial. I was thinking that if they arrest me, I’d be out of luck. My father’s dead and two of my brothers are dead. Who else would save me?”
“They want to put him in jail three days before our convention?” Dowd’s sister asked her, according to the column. “The man is surrounded by Secret Service. What will they do? Put him in a cell with four Secret Service guys around him?”
What I take away from this story is the pretty depressing realization that a corrupted political system in Georgia, and the tactic of delaying the two federal cases until he can maybe win the election and cancel them, means that this one might be the only chance to punish him for anything.
I know the talking heads are saying that because DJT is a first time offender, he will likely not be incarcerated. But then the sentencing judge is Merchan, the same one who handed Trump $10,000 in fines for violating his gag order. And what he said when doing so is the interesting part:
"Because this is now the 10th time that this Court has found Defendant in criminal contempt, spanning three separate motions, it is apparent that monetary fines have not and will not, suffice to deter Defendant from violating this Court's lawful orders."
Given that the judge is cognizant that fines mean nothing to DJT, perhaps he will wish to sanction him by other means. That could mean imprisonment. But not before the election. Trump will surely appeal the verdict, avoiding any immediate consequences until well after November 5th. If there's one thing Trump is good at, it's delaying tactics. Thankfully, he will not be able to pardon himself if elected. Only the Governor of NY can do that.
Assuming that the current Democrat holding the office (Kathy Hochul) is not replaced by a Republican (fat chance), I doubt any amount of coercion would result in a pardon. Coercing a public official is also a felony, and sitting Presidents can be tried for state crimes. Never happened before, but DJT has been busting that mold.
Pardoning is done at their sole discretion. There is nothing illegal about bribing for a pardon. Trump could easily have a SPAC say "hey, here's $500m, pardon him and retire." Political suicide for sure. But not illegal, there is precedent, and if there's life changing money (maybe a fraction of that) there's a possibility.
Keeping a political donation for personal use is illegal, as is bribing a public official. They might offer a highly paid position to get around it. But as you say, it's political suicide, and if the money went to the Democrat party, as it did with Marc Rich, the party risks a big black eye as well.
Under NYS law he could still send him to jail even before sentencing as retroactive punishment for the gag order violations too. It's not either a fine or jail, it can be both. And he can chose to do it at anytime during proceedings like at the end if it meant the conviction stage would be expedited. This cannot be appealed as it's a bench judgement for being out of order. It would likely just be for a day or something.
"This was intentional. You don't accidentally kill massive amounts of children and their families over and over again and get to say, 'It was a mistake,'" U.S. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) said in a social media post to President Joe Biden. "Genocidal maniac Netanyahu told us he wants to ethically cleanse Palestinians. When are you going to believe him, POTUS?"
Despite these staggering casualties—and Israel's forced displacement, starvation, and deprivation of millions of Gazans—the United States continues to support its top Middle Eastern ally with billions of dollars in arms and with diplomatic and political support including United Nations Security Council vetoes and genocide denial.
"How many times are we going to hear, it was a 'mistake' before we take serious action against Netanyahu?" U.S. Congresswoman Delia Ramirez (D-Ill.) asked. "How does anyone justify his administration? Every single moment that we supply arms, send money, and make excuses makes us absolutely complicit in his barbaric war of death against Palestinians. Enough!"
"Biden's backing of Netanyahu's war is rooted in a hierarchy of human value, an empathy gap that perpetuates suffering, violence, and distrust," he added. "Cutting off American weapons is the only way to isolate Netanyahu to prevent further killing of women and children in what has become the largest slaughter of Palestinian civilians since Israel's founding in 1948."
She got more votes than Trump. She lost because she didn't get the votes where she needed them to win. Sure seems to me like a strategic failure rather than sexism. Call me a chauvinist if you want, but she should shut the fuck up.
I don't really understand why immigrants that are victims of crime in the US get preferential treatment for immigration VISAs. Can someone explain that to me?
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