Lauchs

@Lauchs@lemmy.world

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Lauchs ,

Capitalism. For all the awfulness goodness gracious, quality of life has skyrocketed as we've figured it out. Parents almost never bury their children anymore, disabled folks who aren't royalty have better lives than almost ever before, if you break a bone you can get it taken care of rather than have it heal poorly and cause pain for the rest of your life, almost no one gets literally crucified and most have access to clean drinking water _in their house!!!_

Yeah, we maybe don't have it as good as our parents generation but goddamn we have it so much better than their parents and grandparents etc.

(I'd argue climate change is more a political problem than capitalism. A sane society would've put a carbon tax in place decades ago and let the free market sort it out. But we get into stupid political fights and the youth, who are most affected, don't vote in primaries when it really matters.)

Lauchs ,

What services do you think people had for free earlier?

And you misunderstanding how capitalism works doesn't mean a carbon tax is against a free market any more than rules againat pouring nuclear waste into rivers goes against a free market. A free market had all sorts of rules to protect us from the excesses of capitalism, that's literally the entire point of anti-trust law, because the correct capitalist move for a company is to become a monopoly, which would be bad for consumers. Thus, we tame the excesses of capitalism.

Lauchs ,

What? Wait... So when parents were burying most of their children back in the day and now don't, that is somehow despite capitalism giving us the goods, services, hospitals, nurses, doctors, ample nutritional supplements etc?

Biden’s populist budget marks the overdue end of trickle-down economics ( thehill.com )

A president’s budget proposal is seldom passed into law. Instead, it’s an expression of the priorities the president promises to fight for, often coming on the heels of an agenda laid out in the State of the Union address....

Lauchs ,

Can't wait for the Republicans to hold the Senate, block every part of this budget and have everyone blame Biden because politics are too complicated.

Lauchs ,

My cynical answer is that much of the public doesn't want a multi hour intellectual exercise. Same reason books don't sell particularly well.

Lauchs ,

Came to make sure someone had posted Pratchett.

I think it particularly suits OP as the prose is astoundingly good. I'd never been impressed by sentence structure until reading Pratchett.

Also, for someone into non-fiction, there's so much real world brilliance that it crosses over pretty well. (Sociology, science, politics, religion, damnit, everything. The whole human experience can be found in Pratchett's writing.)

Lauchs ,

I'm not young but I still missed out!

Lauchs ,

The one upside of trump beating a deeply unpopular Biden would be it might give JT the impetus to acknowledge reality and move on.

Lauchs ,

What isn't true, specifically? I'm curious to hear what you think is "never true."

Have you uhhh, looked at the article headline? There's a pretty obvious and specific claim. That, as OP pointed out, has been claimed for many presidencies including the last time trump won.

Lauchs ,

As long as almost every pollster is wrong, sure you've got a point.

Lauchs ,

If you read the article, how were you possibly confused as to what OP was talking about?

Anyway, like OP said, people have said they were going to leave if W won, if trump won in 2016 etc. Guess what? No real surge in migration either of those times. But sure maybe THIS time they mean it.

Lauchs ,

For all I care, they're being manipulated by Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.

This is the silliest MAGA style conspiracy nonsense...

You not understanding polling doesn't mean they are disinformation, that's a ridiculous thing to say. Or, maybe just like now, you dismissed information that you disliked and as such had another misinformed understanding of things.

Polling aggregators like 538 said that trump had a 1/3 chance of winning and the thing about 1/3 chances is that they happen about 1/3 times!

And then trump damn near won 2020 and lost by under 12,000 votes in one state. You can't get much closer than that!

What a goof.

Lauchs ,

?

Lauchs ,

This is like when conservatives deny climate change because it is unpleasant.

Why do you think the polls were pretty much dead on for the 2022 midterms? Just blind luck?

Lauchs ,

This sounds like a you problem.

If you got your news from non social media and looked at polls, not punditry, you'd have known the most likely outcome was pretty much what happened, the Republicans won a narrow majority.

Don't blame polling for your ignorance.

Edit: If you want an interesting (okay, interesting to nerds like me) recounting of the polling in 2022:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/

Lauchs ,

You should try stomping around the room and yelling at the screen.

?

Polls are shit. Only one poll counts.

If Clinton had paid attention to them, trump might not have won.

Even the article you posted has a self-inserted bias.

With what part do you disagree? They post all the methodology and results. Or are you just "this person works in polling so I can't trust them despite them laying out everything for me to see!"

You haven't presented a logical thought just "I DISLIKE POLLS" which is pretty silly.

You may not like what the polls say but that doesn't mean they aren't valid kiddo. As you grow up, you'll realize that lots of things that are unpleasant are still true no matter how much we wish otherwise. Throwing a tantrum doesn't change the validity of polling.

Lauchs ,

I've read they've been dropped, haven't seen a response from Silver. Is this a social media thing?

Edit: Though if your trying to argue that polling is inaccurate because Nate Silver has an issue with what his former outfit is doing, ooooooooh boy.

That'd be as dumb as saying rockets don't actually wor because, most of the scientists who did the pioneering work were working for the literal Nazis!

Lauchs ,

Yeah but deciding not to vote for Biden just feels like a good trendy way to express my sympathies with Palestineans... /s

Lauchs ,

Holding us hostage by... progressive voters choosing not to show up in the primaries.

Admittedly, bitching online is much easier and doesn't involve leaving the house but still...

Lauchs ,

From most polls I've seen, the US public still generally backs Israel. Crucially, the voting public who, unlike our loud and demonstrative progressive wing, actually shows up to vote, tend to support Israel.

And we had options to help, it just required us to vote in the primaries (2016, 2020) despite not being a tik tok trend or whatever. Sanders wanted to cut military spending but the online and very vocal progressive wing didn't show up and vote for him.

It's sort of like not staying fit, eating poorly and not sleeping well and then wondering why you got hurt when you tried to play a sport with your healthier friends. These things take work/showing up well before they become a critical issue.

Lauchs ,

Sometimes, you can guess who posted the joke before finishing it.

Lauchs ,

Julie Andrews is generally fabulous.

That's part of the joke (I don't think it works as well if the subject is lecherous scum, or Frank from accounting) but to each their own!

Lauchs ,

I mean, if you get into business with a renowned fraudster, him trying to commit fraud and steal from you seems pretty par for the course...

Lauchs ,

I doubt you're going to love the answer but it's basically "you just know."

It super depends on the person, the moment and the vibe. If it's been a date or two, maybe we'll be talking, turn face to face, the conversation fades, we're looking at each other and we both know we're gonna kiss, so we do. If we're all dancing, maybe you lock eyes and kind of slide into each other. Maybe you're at a party and jokes lead to childish bumping with your shoulder on the couch or whatever and you see how they respond.

If I had to boil it down for non drunk dancy events (those are just raw physical chemistry) as simple as I can it'd be something like (also, I'm just assuming genders etc, adjust as necessary):

  1. Is she laughing at your jokes? Is she actively engaging in the conversation or just being polite while you talk at her?

  2. Sounds dumb but is she playing with her hair? Looking into your eyes? Leaning in?

  3. If this is all fairly new to you, then I'd play it safe and at some point in the conversation find something you both enjoy and could do together (maybe you like the same terrible dive bar, maybe there's a nice walk nearby, maybe somewhere fun for tapas) and then later on, when you think things have clicked, say something like "it's been amazing meeting you, but I really shouldn't abandon my friend Bill, even if you are way funnier and probably better looking. But maybe next week, can I buy you a drink at that dive bar/walk/tapas?"

  4. Be prepared for rejection. It happens. It's not the end of the world, though you might feel it is at the time.

Lauchs ,

Haven't watched but the conventional wisdom is that with prep time, Batman could kill God, so I wouldn't be too worried about Black Panther.

Lauchs ,

Onhockey.tv

All the hockey.

[Thread, post or comment was deleted by the author]

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    Lauchs ,

    There are a lot of great paying shitty jobs. Working on pipelines, any remote construction etc.

    Lauchs ,

    Which is insane given that the man to whom he'd lose would be far worse for Palestineans...

    The only way it makes sense is if the people who'd not vote over Israel don't actually care about Palestineans so much as being on the "right"/socially cool side of the issue. Otherwise not voting for Biden over trump because of Israel is like refusing to ride home with your friend because they had a beer and instead hopping in the car with the guy who was slamming tequila all night.

    Lauchs ,

    It's either online purity politics or damn near zero understanding of consequences.

    "I don't like what Biden didn't do for Palestinias, I'm going to help someone who would be way worse for Palestinians! Yay!"

    Lauchs ,

    So, they're going to help someone who would make it worse for the remaining relatives? That makes sense.

    Lauchs ,

    To be clear, you're choosing the guy who'd shoot both?

    Lauchs ,

    Unfortunately, failing to choose means choosing the worse option.

    Though, had all the young pro Palestine leftists bothered to show up during the 2020 or 2016 primaries, there might be a more progressive president and thus a better set of choices. Unfortunately, showing up to the primaries seems anathema to the under 30 crowd, hence, two terrible choices.

    Lauchs ,

    And that's their right!

    BUT, to complain about the effects of their own choices is absurd.

    "I made a conscious decision to not vote progressive and now a centrist politician is enacting centrist policies with entirely predictable outcomes! How could this have happened?!?"

    Lauchs ,

    Luckily the people in this article are making their voices heard

    And if they'd done so in the primaries, that change might have done some good for Palestineans.

    But I don’t know that people who are voting against Biden because of Palestine will wish he had won if trump wins, I think they might wish Biden had taken this hint and acted differently, but that’s not the same thing.

    Not the same thing to us rich westerners, no. And it's not the same to the Palestineans who would suffer worse with a trump presidency.

    This position makes zero sense. If you give a damn about Palestineans and the worse option wins, how could you not wish the better option had won?

    The folks considering not voting either don't actually give a damn about Palestinean well being or are mind bogglingly counter productive.

    There is no universe in which someone is simultabeously: a) genuinely concerned about Palestineans B) considering not voting Biden because of Palestine and C) has at least the intelligence of a turnip.

    Lauchs ,

    This is the primary.

    Against an incumbent. The meaningful primaries were 2020, 2016.

    would you actually vote for someone under whose approval your relative thirsted to death?

    "My relative died, who cares if my choices actively make things worse for those who are still alive?"

    Sucks to have that sociopath as a relative I guess.

    Lauchs ,

    I know! It is, at best, sociopathic to deliberately make things worse for people you claim to care about.

    Lauchs ,

    You're infantalizing these people.

    We both agree on these two facts right:

    1. Trump would be worse for Palestineans.
    2. Not voting helps trump.

    So, the question really is do you think so little of these folks that you think they can't comprehend those basic facts? Do you believe they are incapable of simple logic? Or do you think they are sociopaths? Or do you actually think they are disingenuous about their feelings for Palestineans?

    Out of the two of us, I'm the only one dignifying these people as functional, albeit grieving, adults. If you'd ever had to deal with the mountains of paperwork following an unexpected death you'd know that grief doesn't turn you into a child.

    Lauchs ,

    Oh boy, those are some pretty silly arguments. I can see why you're supporting this nonsense then.

    1. Some 30,000 Palestineans are estimated to have died since October. You could have double that number die _every month _until January and there would be 4+ million Palestineans.

    Unless what, you think Bibbi is going to start dropping nukes? Really?

    1. Come on, that's just the dumbest idea. Explain how an otherwise democratic voter, the type of voter whom the damn article is about, not voting somehow helps Biden.
    Lauchs ,

    Except, Dresden had a population of 600,000 and lost ~ 25000 people and many folks lived there throughout and after the war. Just like Palestinians will. And of course, if you read the news you'd know that Israel aims to have the bulk of their boots on the ground phase before the summer.

    Biden but may have voted in this primary could absolutely help him by not voting for a third party candidate.

    This is just silly. You might as well say Biden is actually helping Palestinians by not having the American military bomb Gaza.

    I think at this point, you know how nonsensical your position is, you just don't have the maturity to admit it. At least, I hope that's what's up. Because these are truly childish arguments and if this nonsense is what we on the left have to offer then we deserve to lose elections.

    Lauchs ,

    Dubious methodology says trump in trouble -> upvote

    Dubious methodology says Biden in trouble -> downvote to oblivion.

    Lauchs ,

    Man, I remember reading lists that were pretty much the same about why people would obviously vote for Clinton in 2016.

    Don't remember how that went, can you remind me?

    Lauchs ,

    Should unite us but somehow about half of America insists they are going to vote for trump.

    So it does matter who runs against trump because, believe it or not, people disagree with us. And I would rather not see another trump term.

    Lauchs ,

    No, but the age thing certainly is sticking. An overwhelming majority of Americans ate concerned about his age.

    Like, Taylor Swift only has 60% or so approval in America whereas I think it was some 70 or 80% of Americans are concerned about Biden's age/mental acuity.

    Lauchs ,

    It's not the media, it is an overwhelming majority of Americans that are concerned.

    Covering your eyes doesn't actually keep away the boogeyman or reality.

    Lauchs ,

    I mean, the Right is going full force on Biden's age and Biden/Biden's staff seem unable or unwilling to forcefully rebut this by putting him out in unscripted moments.

    And frankly, Biden's age was a concern in 2020. Regardless of how much I want him to win, it would be an absolute dereliction of journalistic duty to not cover it.

    Especially because if Biden is fully with it, a good hard interview (or even an absolute softball like the Superbowl interview) should be the easiest thing in the world.

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