The verdict may not matter to Trump's base, but I do think there is a group of people it matters to who are being overlooked: the people who were already likely to vote for Biden.
A Trump acquittal would have sapped trust in legal systems and government further. It would fueled apathy. Hopelessness and apathy can reelect Trump.
@futurebird
I heard stats this morning o people less likely to vote for hoi and thode moter likely.similar #s, so saidcto be a wash
I submit that anyone more likely was already absolutely going to vote for him so no gain
@futurebird I think there's definitely something to that. I lost track of how many social media posts I saw last night that were variations on the theme of, "Holy shit, the system worked!"
@futurebird I'm not feeling hopeless. I'm feeling ready to fight and end this streak of traitorous Trumpers betraying our nation, spoiled jerks who are as stupid as they are greedy. It will be their biggest mistake if they think we won't fight for America. 1 million who laid down their lives, lying in their graves for our freedom, didn't do so for a coward, rapist, and felon to end it with his gang of criminals, thugs, and bullies.
It's hard to express how much I needed a fair trial, a fair judge, a jury, and the full process to work itself out against Trump. Seeing that it's still possible. That the ideal of "no person is above the law" is still holding (even if by a thread) ... matters deeply.
@futurebird
Over here in the UK they are saying it may affect the votes of those who are not registered as Republicans or Democrats. That said neither candidate is popular among them. How many will just stay home?
Agreed.... but the corporatist media-infotainment complex needs to perpetuate the horse race. They will do anything, including incite violence, to get eyes on yhror advertising by making news instead of reporting news!
I still believe that Trump base is greatly over estimated. We will see.
But that great battle and the great danger is in the Supreme Court and how that “court” is handle, managed and perceived. Same as all the federal judges all over the country.
@futurebird it will have reasonably small yet important effect. This is also important effect to everyone fighting for better tomorrow. Yes, current system is shambles, it is rigged, but it is best we have now and we have to work with it to get as much further as possible.
It is VERY important moral boost for all of us.
@futurebird Good observation! I do however think it will also matter to his base - remember, no small part of the reason they adore him is his "Act like an absolute a**hole without consequences" attitude, which they feel give them license to do the same. Even just the conviction taints that image for them. They're hoping he'll make their own sh*tty behavior unpunishable, not just that he, himself, might dodge jail for his. The impunity appeal is definitely stained by this conviction.
You are exactly correct about this and I probably didn't want to think about it but now that we got the right outcome..
I have a friend who has been right about Trump's ascendance since 2015. Even 2020's win didn't shake her sense of doom because it was so close and so weird. Yesterday's verdict really, really gave her hope. Onward! Everbody keep rowing! #BidenHarris2024
“What’s the point of voting if they all still get away with everything?”
A well founded, unfortunately highly relevant but ultimately destructive question.
“What’s the point if they will just change the rules at the last minute? If even winning the most votes doesn’t really mean you win? If the people you have to vote for aren’t perfect, if even they have done some harm?”
I think there are a fair number of people alienated from voting in this way.
@futurebird@jawarajabbi Is it destructive, though? Does it drive more people to inaction than it does to actions that are more effective than voting? Legitimately open question in my opinion.
(Obviously it's best to both vote in your local elections and to organize; whether voting in state and federal elections matters for you depends a lot on your state and your district, but maybe go ahead and do it as long as you're there for your local election?)
I think it has a mostly negative impact: with the very rare exception of a kind of idealist— who is doing local organizing as their primary work in life— and for whom participation in the voting process is deeply painful: insulting. There are a few ‘principled nonvoters’ I can respect but they are rare among those who claim the mantle. And evangelists for not voting? they are often agents of the opposition (or their dupes.)
@YusufToropov The failure to hold the powerful accountable makes the case for caring who has the power to hold people accountable harder. It drives democratic partisans nuts when they encounter young people saying things like “why didn’t democrats just stop them from banning abortion?” (for example) that image of ineffectual fecklessness is deadly— Democrats worry with earnestness about being fair. That’s great. But the powerful never checked is the very essence of unfairness.
So much energy to clarify that Biden didn’t do this. (and he didn’t) but democrats did. Institutions filled with democrats did. Were they full of republicans it would not have happened.
Republicans do not think the law should even be attempted to be applied to everyone. It’s natural and good that a black kid from the Bronx has his life ruined for being at the wrong kind of party one night— while the well-connected follow no law.
@futurebird Kavanaugh gets a pass. Alito gets a pass. Thomas gets a pass. And to hear the GOP talk, it's somehow unfair to suggest that they shouldn't have gotten a pass.
Over and over again, Dems need to make case that BRAVE jurors, a BRAVE judge, his BRAVE staff, did this bcs of their belief in the RULE OF LAW. They need to be protected. (Not a metaphor, they need physical security.)The larger principle also needs to be protected BY ALL OF US WHO GET WHAT THEY JUST DID. #BidenHarris2024
The Stormy Daniels story broke in the WSJ in 2018. Cohen confesses and was sentenced to three years. Then it turns out Trump did reimburse Cohen with false business records.
It's the year of our Lord 2024. If that sexual encounter had produced a child, it would be graduating high school this year.
The legal system can be said to work, only if one outlives all the stalling and delaying. "Right to a speedy trial" , heh.
@futurebird@YusufToropov Biden’s one failure related to all this was refusing to let more witnesses testify in support of Anita Hill. Clarence Thomas was a lascivious pervert who purposely failed in his duty to administer the Office of Civil Rights and who perjured himself at his confirmation hearings in 1991. He should not have been allowed on the Supreme Court.
@futurebird I’m not certain that you are right, but I like your optimism. I’m getting to the point where I just hope that the majority of military personnel and civil servants will honor their oaths to “… support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; … and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter.” I took this oath for at least two Federal jobs and took the similar California oath when I started my career with the City of San Jose.
@futurebird Well, but then there's the "I like the ones who didn't get convicted" faction.
Authoritarian followers are drawn to "legitimate" authority. A felony conviction is, to a subset of them, a strong signifier against one being legitimate as an authority figure.
The ones claiming him to be a martyr will be much louder than the ones turning away from him, though.
... my insomnia often provokes odd thoughts. Your thoughts about the Biden base, the hopelessness, the apathy - that lies at the core of so much bad thinking.
Mine are roaming around this part of the landscape: whatever the justice system does to TFG, there's a greater-than-zero chance of making a martyr of him. Can't let that happen
@tuban_muzuru A man can only be a martyr to those whose hearts he has already won. A martyr drives fervor not popularity. I do worry about violence. But no one who doesn’t already like the guy will be moved to love by his likely minor suffering. What maybe a year in jail with 11 months time served? cry me a river, criminal.
It's a balancing act. I have no idea of your belief systems, mine being Christianity, there's this odd bit of the Crucifixion, where the Jewish leaders complain about Pilate's inscription "King of the Jews".
They wanted it to read "He said he was king of the Jews."
Pilate, exasperated, said "What I have written, I have written."
If TFG's Winged Monkeys drum up a Pity Party to overshadow the 34 Felony Convictions, (Steve Bannon, Chief Monkey) - it won't be pretty.
“The magnitude of this decision is not lost on me but at the end of the day I have a job to do,” Marchan added. “So as much as I don’t want to impose a jail sanction … I want you to understand that I will if necessary and appropriate.”
Kid gloves, right up to the second his fat ass passes from the jurisdiction of the Secret Service to the Bureau of Prisons.
@jack_of_sandwich@tuban_muzuru
Are we trying to learn something from a story about what happened that has been told many times with some aspects highlighted more over time to make the story more instructive— or are we doing research on the most contentious bit of human history and trying to learn from what “really happened” I thought this was an exercise in the former your comment suggests the latter— which didn’t even occur to me. That’s neat. I don’t know.
@futurebird@tuban_muzuru pointing at a fiction and saying "See, this happened in fiction so that supports the idea it could happen now" seems to be of limited value to me.
Using a Biblical story to support a prediction of what will happen for real today seems very tenuous.
Then what is the point of reading stories at all? Of course you can learn things from myths, from stories, from fiction and fictionalized history. Especially if it’s a story told many time with vast influence on how people view the world and thus act.
@futurebird@jack_of_sandwich@tuban_muzuru Bringing up this particular story, albeit in a bizarrely incoherent manner, isn’t some neutral choice. This is a story which has literally gotten countless Jews killed historically. What insight could it possibly give us into the current situation with the criminal and aspiring dictator known as Trump?