I mean, Lichtman himself will tell you he's not infallible, and his system is not without controversy, but he seems to have had a pretty good track record up to this point.
Yeah, he did kind of fudge that, it's true (IIRC he said that Trump would win the popular vote rather than the electoral vote, whereas it was of course the other way round). Although I think I remember before the election he said that Trump would "win," but he didn't say exactly what he meant by that.
His model was previously based entirely on predicting the popular vote. Now he's switched it to just predict the winner based on EC delegates. I think we'll all be thrilled if Trump loses in November (or ideally, just plain dies), but a statistical model that doesn't factor in things like Republicans trying to pull fake or rogue elector hijinks doesn't fill me with confidence. And who knows what SCOTUS will do if it's thrown to them (Lichtman also predicted Al Gore's 'win').
Also, looking at the list, I'm pretty sure more than 6 are false:
Debatable. He did push a lot of changes, but the number of rightward-changes that happened under his watch (like Roe being overturned, MQD being bolstered, etc) have overshadowed basically everything else)
False. This entire year has been non-stop protests, and not just over Gaza (1)
False. Whether it was a bullshit thing to prosecute or not (it was), Hunter's conviction is a major talking point on the Right to attack Biden (and specifically, to push independents towards viewing Biden and Trump as equally criminal). (2)
False. Between the Afghanistan withdrawl and Gaza, he's got military and foreign policy failures in both flanks' eyes. (3)
False. I think that if Republicans had not been paid by the Kremlin to sandbag aid to Ukraine, he might have had one, but as of now Ukraine is not a success, and I can't think of any others that are known to voters. (4)
False. He was never considered charismatic like Obama, or a "National Hero". (5)
False. Trump's charisma among his base is a trademark of his populist campaign. It's why Trump can dominate the Right and DeSantis falls flat. (6)
It's possible that the Dems would have held the House, barely, if the New York Democratic party hadn't completely screwed up redistricting, so that's maybe a "soft false." I think what he means by "charismatic" is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers. I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it's the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least. Anyway, I wonder if that is considered a foreign policy failure; I don't, but others might. Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains. I think it ends up sort of being how Lichtman himself interprets the keys a month or two before election day.
EDIT: Rereading key #1, "After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections," I guess that even if the NY Dems hadn't screwed up there probably would have been a smaller majoirty than before, ergo false.
I think what he means by “charismatic” is someone like Reagan who appeals to the other side of the aisle (Reagan Democrats in this case); Trump is only charismatic to his own followers.
I don't think working "across the aisle" is really what this is about; I think this is purely about voters' perceptions of them as people. But in either case, Biden sure isn't winning anyone over with his personality who wasn't already firmly center-right Neoliberal.
I consider the Afghanistan withdrawal to be, overall, a highly positive thing; yes, it was handled badly, but it’s the easiest thing in the world to keep a forever war going, and at least there Biden put a stop to it, so I give him high marks for that at least.
Gaza and Afghanistan are polar opposite reactions, depending on what flank of the Democratic party you're on:
Gaza is an unmitigated disaster to the anti-war/anti-genocide/anti-SetCol Left flank, and a moderate success to the pro-Israel/ pro-war Neoliberal Right flank.
Afghanistan is an unmitigated disaster to the pro-war Neoliberal Right flank, and a moderate success to the anti-war Left flank.
Not trying to blindly defend Lichtman or anything, just trying to cling to whatever shred of hope remains.
Understood. I guess for me my anger is more important right now, because this was so avoidable, and Trump feels like he's close to coming back because of the DNC's endless hubris (again). And I've already seen people trying to somehow blame the anti-genocide/ pro-Palestinian protesters for this over on Reddit, since they reflexively scapegoat any and all centrist Dem failures, and they don't have a Bernie or Nader to scapegoat this time.
I'm shocked that the guy who has handlers to make sure he doesn't wander off had a sub-par debate. /s
These two candidates are there because they're useful idiots for the billionaire class. Neither of them give a damn about anyone, and it's probably past time to stop pretending Trump 2.0 isn't happening and have an exit strategy.
Generally speaking, if the oligarchs don't think you'll be useful to them, you don't make it far enough up in the food chain to be considered a candidate. They don't play the game of "Maybe this person will do what I tell them once they're in office," they play of the game of "Only people I know will do what I say will get onto the ballot."
Unfortunately for a lot of us there isn't an exit strategy. No country worth moving to wants an almost 40 year old, single, uneducated, factory schmuck :/
Most Americans don't care a fig about debates, or even watch them, but Joe's performance was certainly less than stellar, it's true. Um, early days, still? My fondest wish is that Joe would step aside for J.B. Pritzker.
Biden has been losing the whole time, pretty badly. I listened to Pod Save America to get their read, and one of them pointed out that predicted election outcomes can change in one of two ways: a major event can force a big shift, or you can rise or fall slowly over time. Tonight showed that neither is coming for Biden. At his best possible opportunity, he didn't under perform, he made it far worse. The theory that he could slowly gain ground with media appearances is now popped.
Biden is a nice guy, but he's experiencing a pretty normal cognitive decline, and voters aren't going to magically come around to him when they've been telling pollsters for months that he's going to lose.
That isn't going to change unless the nominee changes. You're right that this isn't the end for Biden. But sadly, that's because it's actually been over for a long time. It's time to pick up the pieces and begin the overdue work of fielding a competitive nominee.
I am not looking forward to this very much. If Trump gets into power, our local politicians are going to crank it into overdrive. They already pander to that demographic, so it's just going to get worse. Not nearly as bad as in America, but nobody wants to live under bad leadership and have their safety taken from them.
I don't really understand how we got to this point. But it just seems like all these grifters came out from the woodwork and are just being crazy in plain sight with no consequences now.
I'm sure they were always there, but I don't feel like it was nearly as bad as it has been. Maybe it's just recency bias clouding my memory, but like... dang.
I would love to see some sort of ranked ballot voting or other method of voting come into place for every democracy. No vote should go to waste because of having to pick between the lesser of two crappy choices.
It has gotten worse. The steady decline of decency in political discourse took a precipitous dive with Trump. Canada is always out of sync with the US political pendulum, PP is our inevitable swing and it's fucking depressing to watch ignorance and bigotry be celebrated so confidently.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but it's easy to choose the better of two choices here. Debate or not, how is it even a question who to vote for when one guy is openly a fascist?
I think you might be misunderstanding my intent.
I agree lol there really is no question, which is the better option.
Some people still might vote independent, or they might want to vote independent, but rather vote Democrat because they feel if they don't, they're not helping to fix the problem.
This is common in Canada as well. Having a ranked ballot or some sort of choice voting system would allow people to pick a primary or secondary choice in the event that their first pick doesn't have enough votes. That way, a vote wouldn't be left out, and everyone gets a say regardless of their first pick.
A choice voting system would allow me to vote against Biden, but also capture my choice of Biden over Trump. The lies surrounding election integrity would not resolve with a choice voting system.
Fascism isn't unpopular. It's very popular when people are feeling desperate.
I keep hearing people say stuff like this: He can't win! He's so fascist! He can't win, Biden did such a good job if you actually look at the facts!
That's not how elections work. People vote based on what they think will satisfy their interests, and a lot voters don't see any reason to vote for Biden, and so they'll stay home. People don't need to vote for Trump for Trump to win. They just need to give in, and Biden is a "give in" machine. He's poison to voter hope or enthusiasm, and he's going to lose if he doesn't get off the ticket.
If we want to take the threat of Trump seriously, no more hiding our heads in the sand.
Sorry, I think I did misread your comment, apologies.
I do realize it's growing in popularity, I am not suggesting anyone hide their head in the sand, though.
I was trying to say that this narrative of "were doomed" and "theyre both bad choices" feeds into this problem. Its more false equivalency, and discourages voting. I realize you weren't saying this, and that this IS what people are saying. But I still find it gobsmacking that people are seriously saying it's hard to choose.
Not the person you were replying to, but the "doom" spouter here. I realize you are 100% right that my post might make people less inspired to vote. I'm sorry for that. I was very distressed at the time. My intent was to emphasize that: while a rational person might complain about either candidate, one is substantially worse and we MUST vote in favor of democracy when the other choice (and his advisors) are openly saying they want to dismantle the institutional expertise that understand how stuff works (which materials are suitable for building roads on various substructures, or where groundwater migrates and how to prevent contamination, and yes, how to figure out how a virus works). They call these people "the deep state", which minimizes the reason we want them to keep their apolitical jobs. Of course the experts -- like everyone --will likely have political opinions, but that doesn't mean they are partisan. As long as they look at data and derive truthful results regardless of their personal politics, it doesn't matter. Obviously we should fire those who can't do their job or hide/ignore/promote information such that their results are distorted to favor a personal agenda (also knowing that some data SHOULD be rejected if acquired by dubious means, isn't reproduced in other trials, etc.).
Anyway, I apologize for the negativity. Thank you for calling me out! :-)
I really hate being right about the worst fucking stuff.
Biden should never have been put up again, and his performance is gonna enthuse absolutely zero non-political-junkie normies to vote for him.
With states being as voter-suppressed/gerrymandered (or however you prefer to describe the electoral college bullshit) as they are, Dems cannot afford to be slightly ahead. Hillary was slightly ahead. You have to be WAY ahead, and Biden's not.
Before, people said that Biden was fine. Now, they're saying, "There's just no way to change, so we have to accept it."
Bullshit. This is supposed to be a democracy, and every volunteer and staffer and voter and activist and voter needs to rattle the bars of the cage that the Democratic party is trying to put us in. Do. Not. Let. Biden. Do this to us.
Do I honestly have any hope as a trans woman. I feel beyond doomed. I'm in a liberal area of a liberal state but like will that even matter at this point. Am I fucked 😔
I think if you're in a Blue state, you'll be safe. It's the folks in Blue enclaves in Red states, like Austin, El Paso, Atlanta, that I'm really worried for.
My wife and ai keep talking about this. We plan to flee our deep south red state, but it fills us with survivor's guilt knowing we have the means to do so, and so so many just do not.
I do not believe you are fucked. I also know the feelings of doom. I have been expressing gallows humor to my peers about how I will probably end up on some train to some camp.
Times will be hard. Now is a good time to develop survival skills and community. We need all the horizontal power we can get to overcome hierarchical power.
We don't have much control over this, frankly. But if we have any, I say we use it.
My personal attitude is that although I will concede that it is possible for Biden to win, if we don't want to have to hope for a prayer, the only way things get better is if we all pop the bubble that Biden and his supporters are in that they can just ignore reality and hope for the best.
It has to be so clear to the Democratic party that not only are they likely to lose this election (and obviously with it, democracy), but they're going to lose their jobs. No one who works in the election industrial complex is going to keep getting invited to cocktail parties and get hired on for whatever Potempkin election follows this one if Trump wins. No LARPing that they're "the resistance!" in their endless fundraising emails while they enjoy being in the minority FOREVER. Rattle the fucking cage. Make it clear we blame them for this nonsense, and will continue to assign them the blame for choosing to run a failing candidate in a time of crisis because no one wanted to be the one to speak up and suggest doing anything else.
People keep getting mad when I criticize Biden, as if doing so is helping Trump win. My take: NOT doing so is helping Trump win. Protest this guy like our lives depend on him dropping out of the race at the convention. (They might).
In 2020, people believed they were voting for healthcare, defunding the police, emptying the migrant concentration camps, protecting Roe v Wade, etc.
When you fail to do the things that brought people to the polls, and do the things the opposition wants instead, the opposition's voters still won't vote for you and your own voters just don't vote.
Trying to appeal to moderate republicans just lowers your own voter turnout. The republicans will always vote for fascism over diet-fascism.
But no, pointing out these very obvious mechanisms just gets me labeled as an evil conservative Chinese Putin-bot trying to disrupt the election.
dropping out of the race at the convention
The face of the party is infinitely less important than the impact the policies have on people's lives. It doesn't matter if it's Biden or Pete Buttigeig at the front, the dems only shot in hell is to use every power at their disposal short of drone striking Trump and the SCOTUS (maybe) to demonstrate to voters that 1. They want the same thing the voters want (eg, not genocide) and 2. They will actually do those things (no blaming the parliamentarian or norms or some rules you set or fear the SCOTUS might ask you to stop).
That's true, but I don't think they can do that with Biden at the top of the ticket. He's spoiled goods.
I'm not a Democrat. I left and joined the Green Party. I'm that crazy lefty. But even I can readily concede that I'd like democrats to win, and I think they could with someone like Elizabeth Warren. Or Cory Booker.
I'm not demanding Bernie or AOC or that Ro Khana be the nominee. But don't act like there aren't a few Democrats who have credibly taken a stand once or twice in their career for the greater good. They aren't the majority, but they're not so rare as you couldn't find one.
I also want Cornel West, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, etc. I was sold in 2020 that we could move Democrats left. Democrats moved right. I do not want milquetoast neoliberals.
Selling a Democrat is harder in 2024, but I could be convinced to vote for a different Democrat candidate. The outcome is better than fascism.
It annoys me that we can understand this issue, but yet the people in power just don't seem to get it? Maybe they just don't care. It kinda feels like it's a game to them. Will high-ranking democrats really feel the pain from losing? I feel like people with money always seem to not be burdened nearly as much.
I lived and worked inside the DC beltway for ten years. They don't care. The stuff they worry about is so far removed from our everyday lives it doesn't even register.
We care about stuff like getting to work on time, covering rent, and not yelling "This is all bullshit!" during daily standup. They care about getting a position paper from a lobbyist summarized to read in the car on their way to a meeting (they tend to be one or two hundred papers in length and can serve as general anesthetic) and making sure that some other person on the same committee will vote the way they agreed ("You back my $foo, I'll back your $bar").
As a rule, if you have Money you can hire folks that do all of the drudgework for you. For example, a secretary fields all of the requests for meetings, looks at your calendar, comes up with a couple of possible time slots, and negotiates the time and place.
It's not just the people in power, though. When I look at primaries, where people actually have some hope of affecting outcomes, they consistently vote for the worst people. I mean, it's hard for normal-ish people to even get to through the party structure to get on the ballot, and then they just get crushed. In 2020, Dems could have had Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, even Klobuchar, but Biden won pretty handily. That's on people people.
Dems could have had Bernie, Warren, Buttigieg, even Klobuchar, but Biden won pretty handily. That’s on people people.
Is it though? The media confusing people by claiming Biden is more electable because his policies are closer to what republicans want isn't on people, nor is every conservative candidate dropping out at once to endorse Biden, while Warren remained in to keep Bernie's share divided (ensuring that none of the popular policies the former Reagan campaigner ran on were actually implemented), nor is the DNC giving Biden debate questions before hand.
Keep it up! In fact, if you get criticized, you can point out that you'd rather have a leader you CAN criticize than one that gets treated like a God-ling. Point out that one of the differences in the generic liberal versus conservative thought is the idea that a leader might be flawed but generally good at leading versus the idea that everyone needs to support the leader (or the cause) no matter what -- until their transgressions become too extreme and gets them ostracized. Please. Let's criticize early and be ready to replace them sooner rather than later.
We could've watched Biden collapse months ago while figuring out who is actually fit to run a good campaign. Now we're going to have to go through it the hard way, because they tried to hide from the obvious for about the last 8 months.
Don’t know if that helps you - here in Europe it doesn’t look better. In all countries you can choose between the crazy, the stupid and the as-always. I‘m afraid the politics machine transforms you in one of those or scares away the motivated.
I hear you. A few years back I was rooting for Jeremy Corbin to be Prime Minister and could not understand how the populace didn't choose him. More than that, I sympathize with people who dislike illegal immigration into their respective countries because, well, I can see how it FEELS like, "We built this country to be good and prosperous, and these folks want what WE built while they never built anything like it for themselves" -- but that is a false perception for so many reasons (Was their home a colony or otherwise oppressed? Our ancestors built our countries, but we're just born to them. Climate change is driving equatorial people to Northen climes -- to countries complicit in the climate change that has made their homelands dry and cropless, etc.)
So I don't have a solution for immigration (which Trump harped on constantly). Fixing the climate might help for the long term, but for the short term it won't fix that immediate complaint.
I look at U.S. history and I don't see a strong track record for austerity helping. More the reverse. In The Great Depression, one of the things that seemed to work was letting the government take on debt to give a bunch of people 'stupid' jobs so they could put that money into the economy. Of course, that came with stepp progressive tax rates, too. It was much harder to get rich when the highest brackets were up to/over 90% of income. I doubt the current crop of rich people would allow that to happen in the modern world, but I'd vote for it.
We have to vote for the people who will admit to that and get rid of them. The U.S. is going to have to choose between a leader who tries to install good people to run the government and one who intends to install people bent on dismantling the government and giving loyalty to the leader alone.
I largely share your thoughts. I honestly expected Biden to at least be prepared enough to counter the usual Trump tactics of making things up and using strong words to impress his base while deflecting blame or critical questions.
Instead, we got Trump basically having free rein to appear strong with simple (and wrong) answers to complex questions, twisting the truth to support his positions and straight up lying and deflecting when finally confronted with something.
I'm not a big fan of Biden, but IMO he's the obvious, rational choice out of two candidates way past their prime - if you're into rationality over the antics of a con artist.
But this isn't a fair fight, and Biden isn't the showman Trump managed to be today. Biden was barely audible and mostly on the defensive while appearing weak, Trump was the opposite of that.
I can't imagine any Trump voter switching teams after the debate, but I can image more than a few more emotionally motivated democrats second guessing their choice.
I don't really think one debate decides who people vote for. Plus you have the electoral college. So you were fucked since forever, you just never noticed. But please vote against Trump because you probably don't get to vote again if he wins, that has a big influence on the world too
I largely share your thoughts. I honestly expected Biden to at least be prepared enough to counter the usual Trump tactics of making things up and using strong words to impress his base while deflecting blame or critical questions.
He can't because he's 2637361873 years old and can't think fast enough to have actual replies. The rules of the debate were no notes and no communication with staff so Biden had to rely on what little working brain cells he has left to form responses and recall history. I also wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to learn both him and Trump have been using stimulants, but only Biden stopped talking them for the debate since there was so much talking about that beforehand.
It was an absolute travesty that there was no fact checking from the completely useless moderators.
I’m sick to my stomach. My healthy labrador died suddenly on Saturday. He was fine Friday afternoon, got nauseous Friday night, and I was waiting for the vet to open at 8am Saturday to get him in there. He got unresponsive and barely breathing around 6am and I rushed him to the vet ER, and he didn’t make it. The vet said he had a “torsioned spleen” or something like that.
I’ve got an absolutely soul crushing amount of guilt that I didn’t get him to the ER on Friday night. My dog trusted me to protect him and take care of him, and I completely betrayed that trust. I’m in such a place of deep sorrow that it’s impossible to explain with words. Every time I start to fall asleep, I’m suddenly wide awake trying to figure out why I decided not to act sooner.
Not sure why I’m sharing this, I guess I just had to get it off my chest.
I'm so sorry for your loss and what you're going through 🫂
It might not be possible right now but please give yourself some grace. You were attentive to his condition and when it worsened you acted immediately. I can't imagine a better kind of human to place trust in, and I can't imagine him not knowing how hard you tried, how much you cared, or that he would ever blame you.
Hey thanks, I appreciate you. What you’re saying is all probably true, but I can’t shake this horrible feeling that I failed him. I like my dog more than I like most people I meet, and he was with me all day every day. I hope this feeling lessens with time.
I'll tell you that it does - or at least, the remembering becomes slightly less painful as time goes on. The lessons really stick, but it becomes easier to remember all the good stuff, and those are the things you should hold on to the hardest during those difficult times.
And I'm glad you shared with us, if for no other reason than helping you process your grief. I'm sure we're all sending our love, hoping to lighten the load in some small way.
Hey just came across this and I hope you’re doing alright today. Losing a pet is never easy. It’s easy to second-guess yourself after the fact but there’s no way you could’ve known what was happening. What you saw was pretty standard “my dog got into something they probably shouldn’t have“ territory and any vet worth their salt would’ve probably told you “just wait to bring them in tomorrow unless you see lots of blood.”
I did talk to my dog’s usual vet and he basically said the same thing - there probably wasn’t anything I could have done. There wasn’t any blood and he wasn’t crying at all, he just laid there. I’m doing better than I was when I posted, but its still painful. He was only 6 and acted like a big puppy up til the last 12 hours he was with us.
Choked up just thinking of how you are feeling. Losing a pet, and so suddenly is the worst.
Please be gentle with yourself. Hesitant to suggest much, as you sound so vulnerable just now.
What kind of things do you think might be distracting or soothing when you notice your mind has drifted into the self-blame stuff? Are there any friends who live nearby that you could visit?
Just following up because it seems like you’re interested. It’s been two weeks now, and after talking to his usual vet about what happened, he convincingly reassured me that I didn’t do anything wrong, and after opening up to other people I know, I’m in a much better place now. I’m still heartbroken, but at least I’m not blaming myself anymore.
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