andrewrgross

andrewrgross , 1 day ago

This is very sensible. Especially when people think of pollution as a local problem that harms their kids' health.

andrewrgross , 1 day ago

I think this article omitted important further context by not describing the target selection approach the IDF was using: they had an AI tool make guesses as to who was part of Hamas, then suggest bombing runs of their homes when they were believed to be inside around meal times or sleeping. They reserved precision weapons for commanders, and used dumb bombs to kill low-ranking suspected combatants.

This approach is inherently designed to create a pretense to carpet bomb neighborhood full of families based on a process with little to know human oversight it discretion.

For details, look up "lavender" and "where's Daddy".

andrewrgross , 4 days ago

This is so, so fucked up.

It's hard to grieve effectively in the face of so many tragedies. Here is another one.

andrewrgross , 4 days ago

Yeah, and more importantly, Biden needs to learn the public component of diplomacy.

I read his interview in Time, and it's weird, because it at least gave me some aspect into what he's thinking.

He's old as fuck. He has learned decades of procedures and standard practice in diplomacy, and he does NOT understand that a lot of it happens in the open now. Biden thinks he's playing chess with all the diplomatic messages he sends along backchannels, and he has no idea that this is just an arm wrestling match now. People judge you by what you say and do transparently.

Biden legit thinks he and Bibi are like cousins who grew up together who are having a tough fight, and Bibi is all fucking politics. He'd slit any throat he has to get what he wants, and he will bury Biden in a heartbeat.

Biden should go to Israel, and in a public address announce that the country is turning a corner: it will be safer than ever, and America is going to assist with a long term peace process, which they won't lead but will provide security guarantees for. And don't tell Bibi any of this in advance. And when Bibi reacts, say that Bibi has lost his trust and that of the elected public, and they need to hold new elections before getting any new weapons. Get some 'nads, man!

I wouldn't mind a complete cut-off in weapons, but I also wouldn't mind if they continue to supply rocket defenses or something if its part of a pressure campaign to send Netanyahu packing. I want Israeli prosecutors and the Hague to argue over who gets to lock his ass up first.

andrewrgross , 4 days ago (edited 4 days ago)

That is very true. Joey Ayoub of The Fire These Times coined a phrase months ago for describing the mainstreaming of genocidal ideation among the public, which I keep returning to: "The Smotrich-ization of the Israeli public". It's real, and it's terrifying.

Still, my impression is that Israelis are in a weird, weird, weird place:

• They are largely supportive of the war, but most want a ceasefire deal that would bring home the hostages.
• They are largely furious at Netanyahu, though his support has recently started to go back up.
• There has been enormous pro-democracy anti-government protests before the war, then there were demonstrations demanding negotiations for a hostage release that were supposed to be explicitly distinct from anti-government demonstrators, and there are also pro-ceasefire, pro-hostage demonstrations that are explicitly NOT distinct from the pro-democracy anti-government demonstrations.
• Most Israelis don't believe the war has "gone too far", but also many Israelis feel that the war has been mishandled (largely due to the cost on Israeli troops, the economy, and international standing).
• There is support for the IDF, but also fury and blame at the IDF for failing so catastrophically during Oct. 7.
• There is also widespread anger at the far right for insisting on exempting the ultraorthodox from conscription, while troop shortages force middle-age reservists back into service, but there's no clear indication that anyone has any leverage to impose on the far and ULTRA FAR right, who have been essentially governing Israel with smug impunity for months now.
• And, overall, Israelis seem to like Biden a lot.

I apologize that i don't have sources for each of these, these are just a collection of insights I recall reading in the last few months.

Ultimately, I think they're largely out of answers AND being herded aggressively by a well-tuned state propaganda machine, which means that I think their attitudes are in flux. I think they could be led in many directions, and many futures are possible. Right now though, the most successful shepherds are Smotrich and Ben-Givir.

Lastly, there are a few very small Palestinian-Jewish unity groups. These may look irrelevant considering their numbers are so few, but when people ask where we could find leaders capable of negotiating peace (considering most of the Palestinian ones have been killed to prevent any peace process), I think this would be where we'd find them. Despite their numbers, they terrify the far right. They face extreme threats of violence, and I think that reaction belies the threat they pose to Jewish Supremacy.

andrewrgross , 4 days ago

Absolutely. Analog is retro. That's low tech for sure.

andrewrgross , 4 days ago

Anyone watch attoparsec on YouTube?

I saw him at open sauce last year, and got to type out a tweet using his typesetter's keyboard:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vdP_sTMOWYo&t=7s

andrewrgross , 2 days ago

Yeah, he's got some dope stuff, and seemed nice. He made a fuse-triggered mechanical thumper from Dune. This was before the movie, so I don't know how it compares, but it's quite clever.

andrewrgross , 8 days ago

As far as I can tell, that's de rigeur for these now. It's largely the same on both sides in the other war too.

I think international pressure needs to be brought to bear. I can appreciate that the end of the war will likely require unpopular concessions. But I think humanitarian concerns as well as the need to halt the advance of authoritarian nationalism around the world requires an end to the two big wars.

If we can't find an end, the US should withdraw from both. Our role is prolonging them.

andrewrgross , 8 days ago (edited 8 days ago)

This is a good question.

I think I would support their defense more assertively if I was presented with a compelling case of what the options are, and what outcomes each might lead to.

Currently, I feel like I'm only really presented with the demand that we continue to send enough weapons with restrictions that we keep the war going, as a way to weaken Russia geopolitically and to give money to the military industrial complex without a clear plan beyond that, or any sign that a victory is on its way. And then eventually, Biden loses in part because his foreign policy is broadly unpopular, and most likely Trump cuts off all aid and the Russia conquers Ukraine.

I don't see a coherent strategy to improve Ukraine's negotiating position from where it is. Just a lot of jingoism. If there's an actual plan to win, lay it out. Otherwise, it feels like the alternative is just the same outcomes currently on the table (or worse), but after more people are dead.

andrewrgross , 8 days ago

I don't really get how this analogy is useful. I'm not of the opinion that anything Russia is doing is justifiable or just.

Putin's was of aggression is very bad. We agree on that.

andrewrgross , 7 days ago

I appreciate that this is a little closer to an objective, but it doesn't seem serious or coherent.

For instance, why not fully commit? Why not give Zalinsky full permission to do whatever he wants? Why not let him strike Moscow? Why not threaten Moscow with a direct American attack?

Are we willing to collapse the country or not? Are we committed to doing whatever it takes to ensure a complete victory for Ukraine or not?

People act as though anyone who discusses limits to assistance is a traitor to our ally like we haven't already been placing huge limits on our assistance, and like they themselves aren't all opposed to actually doing the things I think it would take to win.

Why are my limits a traitorous betrayal and Joe Biden's limits courageous support of an ally when it's not clear that there's a meaningful difference in the outcome of the war?

andrewrgross , 7 days ago

Is this based on anything? I don't know if this is meant to be taken literally, or if this is some kind of coded reference.

I feel like that would garner headlines.

andrewrgross , 5 days ago

That is very, very interesting. I thought you were just being cryptic, but I'm really glad I asked for clarity, because this was super informative. Thank you.

andrewrgross , 8 days ago

It's got real Dr.Strangelove vibes.

"Mr. President! We cannot allow a mineshaft gap!"

These fucking clowns. If you assume the absolute worst of them, you'll rarely be surprised.

andrewrgross OP , 4 days ago

The game's core manual is on Itch (https://fully-automated-rpg.itch.io/fully-automated-solarpunk-rpg). I haven't uploaded the playable adventures yet, though they're available on our website, where you can download them for free without an account.

I'll add them to itch eventually.

Also, we just released the third adventure of the four-part starter campaign: https://slrpnk.net/post/10660226

I'll cross post it here, but I need to wait until Wednesday to keep it under 1 per week.

andrewrgross OP , 2 days ago

Thanks. I hope you get some use from it!

Ultimately, I really hope this just clicks with some people. I feel like there is a huge well of potential here, and if some better game developer took this idea and ran with it, I'd be thrilled just to have these ideas seeing larger audiences. I really think this is a fantastically fun setting to play in.

andrewrgross OP , 9 days ago

I encourage anyone with the power to keep fascists out of office to do what they can.

I also think, though, that if there is one thing that might save us, it would be Jill Stein breaking into the mainstream. I think Bernie's campaign in 2020 created the conditions that moved Biden and organized what become his turnout operation, and he needs a lefty foil or he's gonna fall flat on his face.

andrewrgross , 8 days ago

When I see these comments, I wonder if you understand that this isn't effective politicking.

Will this bring you comfort when Trump wins? Explaining why you think Biden should have won?

You can't logic the electoral outcome you want, matter how many links you include. It doesn't matter that Trump is worse. We know. It's not working.

Also: Biden needs a turnout operation. In 2020, it was all the Bernie lefties who actually knocked on doors. Biden supporters write checks, but ultimately you need folks to remind their neighbors to vote, and give people rides. I think most lefties will still turn out and vote for Biden. But they aren't going to pull him across the finish line like they did last time.

Biden has to change course. I think he'll have a very, very, hard time winning if he stays on the current course.

andrewrgross , 9 days ago

I think that any coverage should simply ask organizers to comment.

This is such a propaganda tactic: no one can stop someone from showing up with any flag they want. If the organizers embrace it? Then the criticism is fair game.

But if they say something like 'out of thousands of protesters who share our demand for peace, several brought inflammatory messages that don't represent us', then media has a duty to report that.

andrewrgross , 9 days ago

They're not "just" freedom fighters: they ARE freedom fighters, but they are also conservative religious freedom fighters who utilize indiscriminate violence to advance their cause of by any means necessary.

They are not morally upright heroes. I can't support what they did. They are, however, also still freedom fighters. And it makes me very, very angry that their tactics have been successful after non-violence failed in 2018. It shouldn't have come to this.

As Kennedy astutely observed, “Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable”.

I cannot endorse the violence Hamas employs, but I also understand in such a context why others do. This was an inevitable outcome of extreme political disenfranchisement, and that makes me equally furious at the joint responsibility I see for the atrocities that have resulted.

andrewrgross , 9 days ago

Oh, that's cool! I'm excited to check this out. I like their content. I don't love it enough to keep up with it (especially because they're a little long) but I'm interested to hear their take.

andrewrgross , 9 days ago

First, for supporters of Palestinian liberation who are unclear: @chakan2 is correct. Palestinians largely endorse Hamas at this point, and believe that the attack on Oct. 7 was a justified response to their treatment by Israel. I understand that this is inconvenient for those of us who support Palestinian liberation but do not approve of Hamas' tactics, but it's a reality that we need to accept and move forward on. I don't believe that the endorsement of genocide by Palestinian civilians robs them of their right to life any more than I believe the widespread endorsement of genocide within Israeli public life after Oct. 7 robs them of their right to life and dignity as well.

As for your question, the short answer is that people aren't good at crafting a nuanced stance on multi-axis conflicts with no clear Galactic Empire style baddy and a plucky, ethical resistance. Ultimately, many people have concluded that the Israeli government has more blood on their hands and a greater responsibility for Hamas' use of violence than Hamas does. And so they're inclined to view pro-Israeli stances skeptically in a blanket way.

As for the article: I think this is always distraction. I want Hamas and Israel to accept the terms of the current ceasefire, and return the hostages, withdraw from Gaza, and begin a peace process. I want Biden to use leverage to make that happen, and to stop financing and arming the genocide, regardless of what flags people carry in the streets.

If you live in NY, well then this matters. Figure out your communities. But for the rest of this, it's just a smear job on Palestinian rights activism.

andrewrgross OP Mod , 11 days ago

This is a cool idea I wanted to save before it for lost in my Discord history.

andrewrgross OP Mod , 11 days ago

I like that!

andrewrgross Mod , 12 days ago

I love the sound of this. An ecological rescue is a great premise.

andrewrgross OP , 13 days ago

I relate to this, but I keep trying to tell people that we need to get a clear diagnosis of the problem and figure out how we're going to get out of this bind.

Ultimately, Biden is currently on track to lose. He's been losing in the polls all year, and alarmingly, he's insisted that he isn't going to make changes. He's staying the course.

Those of us who want to avoid a Trump dictatorship need to find a way to change this dynamic, and I don't see any way that complaining about Biden's disaffected base fixes this. I don't think complaining about Biden fixes it either. I think he's made peace with losing. So what will?

The Democratic establishment -- the campaign managers and staff in particular -- can largely tolerate a Trump dictatorship more than the loss of status. "Leaders of the Resistance" is okay with them. "Collaborators" or "nobodies" isn't. If Jill Stein hits 15% in the polls and starts drawing major crowds, I thik this would be such a painful shock to the self-image of Democratic campaigners that I think this could dislodge the race and force Biden to reconsider his approach, and hopefully campaign for president the way he did in 2020.

If you don't want Trump, don't blame the left. They aren't the primary source of his polling collapse. That's coming from moderates who see no vision or benefit. And the Democratic party's most popular agenda items are all leftist anti-corporate stuff. So criticism is all that I see saving us from Biden's terrible judgement.

andrewrgross OP , 13 days ago

That's brilliant. I'm going to save this.

andrewrgross OP , 12 days ago (edited 12 days ago)

Bruh.

Your arguments are totally wasted on me. I'm not saying he hasn't done good stuff. I'm saying that he's running a losing campaign, and so far has been totally unwilling to change.

Regarding polling: I don't know how to get through to you that he's losing. If you're not accepting reality, then we're fucked. Are you going to reject the election results too? It's not really even in the margin of error most weeks, he isn't even close to having the votes he needs in the states he needs to win. I can't believe we're replaying 2016 when we've already been through it. Wake up: we're on a collision course and need to change direction NOW.

Regarding his achievements:
These are largely great. Which just makes it so much more painful that no one knows about them. He's never been a skilled candidate, and unfortunately getting older has not done him favors. If he had a really strong campaign, he could certainly win, but if you give a guy who isn't good at the fundamentals of running bad support and bad guidance and a muddled, poorly delivered message, we're going to wake up under President-for-life Donald Fucking Trump.

Did people forget that he was president? He won. It's like I'm in groundhog's day, and no one knows that we already ran this simulation, and the result was terrible.

If Jill Stein hits 15% in polls we’ve wandered into bizzarro world and all bets are off anyway.

We are already in bizzarro world! The leading candidate is a known fascist/rapist/felon, and the current incumbent is the most unpopular president in contemporary history.

People don't even remember that Trump was found guilty of rape last year, because it's not even newsworthy because he keeps quoting Hitler. And he is CURRENTLY IN THE LEAD.

Smash the glass and pull the alarms! All bets ARE off! This is a god-damned crisis, and repeating why BIden SHOULD be winning is pure copium. Put down the pipe and put on a pair of comfortable shoes, because saving America is going to need actual organizing work! And that starts with accepting that we have a problem.

I'm not saying that we need to make Jill Stein president, but we need something to convince Biden to either let someone else take the nomination or start running like he means it. He (and you) need the loudest possible wake-up call or mark my words: Trump WILL win.

andrewrgross OP , 12 days ago (edited 11 days ago)

You know, Bertrand Russell might say that in the present moment, you're the one who needs to demonstrate some facts, but I'll oblige.

National polls: Losing, consistently.

Key state polls: Biden is losing, in some states by shocking margins.

The midterms: The polls were dead on. A red wave was predicted by pundits who ignored the polls. This was easier to do because a lot of elections were close, and hundreds of close elections make predicting the overall breakdown in seats very hard, but the specific polls were all historically accurate. Polling the presidential outcome in key states is much less unclear. In all the most important states, he's either losing badly or it's a toss-up, favoring Trump. I don't know of any precedent for a polling error massive enough to explain polls like this without Biden being significantly behind. That could change, but it won't as long as Biden and his enablers keep denying the reality of our dire situation.

The effect of Roe: the polls already capture this. It isn't like people answer polls without factoring in Roe, and then suddenly remember it at the voting booth. Biden IS already getting the benefit of Roe, and the current terrible poll numbers are how he performs WITH this benefit. He's historically unpopular. If he were running in 2016 against a conventional candidate, he'd be getting Carter or Bush numbers. These numbers are WITH his advantages.

Here is a question for you: WHY??? Obama had a tough election because he had a brutal economy. HOW is Biden not a runaway favorite to win? Why in a time of low unemployment, following the passage of highly popular bills, against a reviled opponent is Biden even struggling? Even if you don't think he's losing (again: it's really not subjective, he's objectively losing right now), explain to me why it is even close? What story do we tell ourselves to make sense of the obvious wrongness of all of this? He is doing worse than Hillary in 2016 by a lot. I don't know how anyone can claim that this is not an absolute catastrophe in the making. Expecting Trump to implode is crazy. He just went through a primary, and he mopped the floor with everyone. Everyone already knows that he's a monster. What do folks think there is to learn? He's a historically despised fascist who tried to seize a second term by violence on live TV. If that were going to work, it would have worked by now. That isn't a strategy that is going to work without Biden either reinventing himself or stepping aside.

This should be a five-alarm fire. Please don't get mad at me for trying to sound that alarm. Wake UP and figure out what we're going to do about it (suggestion: demand a new candidate).

andrewrgross OP , 11 days ago

This is out of touch with the problem.

The long term problem is that we don't have a political economy that actually represents the public.

But the short term problem is that Trump is currently on track to win, and the people who don't want that to happen are sticking their heads in the sand.

We need to (1) reengage the Democratic base. Biden's victory in key swing states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia in particular -- was built on the backs of grass-roots door knocking campaigns by Bernie supporters. His campaign was absolutely reliant on the support of people who didn't really like HIM, but really wanted to get Trump out of office. Those people will probably still hold their nose and vote for him, but that turnout operation is shattered, and I don't see a way he can match his close victory in 2020 without it.

If progressives find a champion in Jill Stein, it's possible that they start dreaming of something better, and if Biden turns things around, they'll have the drive to rebuild that critical lefty turnout machine.

(2) Biden needs a metaphorical slap in the face. He won last time because Bernie's team wrote half his platform in a reconciliation committee. This time, there was no primary, so Biden has reverted to all his instincts, and they are TERRIBLE. He's trying to win Haley voters as if that's not like Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy's football. If Stein gets momentum, maybe it'll knock sense into him.

This is all aside from the fact that voting Green builds party infrastructure and ballot access for a meaningful third party. There are lots of complicated reasons why voting Green has long-term strategic benefits, but I'm not even getting into those. I'm just talking about how we save Biden from himself. Sorry if it sounds like 4D chess, but polls already show Biden losing and he's not taking note, so I think seeing popularity for a left alternative is the only thing I can think of that will rescue this thing.

andrewrgross OP , 11 days ago

Mojofrododojo isn't going to see this, because he won an argument so hard he had to block me.

But if anyone else is reading this, I just want to state that being a dick to political allies because they're upset by a cold hard reality that you reject is not only a shitty way to build successful political movements, it's just a straight up a shitty way to treat people.

Oh well.

andrewrgross OP , 11 days ago

This is absolutely a myth.

Green party candidates can run and win many tickets other than President, but it's very, very hard to get ballot access, public funding, or voter awareness. In any state that isn't a swing state, voting Green most likely has more actual consequence than voting for one of the two major parties. This builds infrastructure that lets Greens organize the way parties do in other countries: doing actual outreach between elections instead of just threatening people every time they need votes.

The Green party is also often the only way to actually challenge the duopoly when both parties are taking the same pro-corporate position. What they do in a race is break a cartel dynamic, which forces Democrats to actually adopt popular positions which they can then be pressured to act on.

Vote strategically: if you're in PA, MI, or NC, by all means stick with a Democrat, but in about 40 states, you actually have a lot more voice and potential impact voting Green than you do otherwise.

andrewrgross , 15 days ago

To add to this: Netanyahu has been on trial for corruption for years, and he's been using the war as an excuse to avoid holding elections, which he would lose.

When the war ends, Bibi is going to jail. And would you look at that? He's in a permanent war! What are the odds.

andrewrgross , 17 days ago

Can you give any examples, either good or bad?

andrewrgross , 18 days ago

I think a polite congratulation and a continued offer to cooperate is fine. I was just disappointed that Biden through Modi a state dinner. That's kind of crazy.

I believe he did it because everyone in Washington worries about the big recently industrialized countries embracing China more than the US, but I don't think that's ultimately a good use of our influence in the long-term.

andrewrgross , 8 days ago

Ok, I saw that.