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Atyno

@Atyno@dmv.social

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Atyno ,
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It kinda makes them look even more short sighted tbh. Like yeah, you can look at "there's a few polls where he takes from Biden" and call it a day, but it's kinda missing the fact he's lost a lot of relevance already with no signs of stopping.

It's kind of a catch 22: he's stealing votes from the low-info pool, but at the same time if he's not defined at all he'll make no impact by election day. Elevating him can fix that, but that risks those low info voters realizing what they're getting into and then start biting into Trump's numbers as expected.

Atyno ,
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I'm not sure those numbers are as rosy for your argument as you'd think. You're not considering the possibility of someone that does think it's genocide and wholy approves of it. Which does exist, the "glass em all" types like my father.

I'm pretty sure it all balances out, because other polls are showing it's still Israel with the popularity advantage even with the downturn.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx

It's especially telling that desire to pressure the Palestinians to compromise is dropping faster than the increase to pressure Israel: it's either people just becoming wishy washy or intentionally wanting the conflict to continue until Israel wipes them out. (Kinda wish Gallup didn't nix the differentiation between those options tbh).

Why Gaza Won’t Cost Biden the Presidency ( newrepublic.com )

"Despite these polls and the passions raised by the war with Hamas, it is easy to exaggerate the power of Gaza as a motivating issue for voters eight months from no-win November. History suggests that foreign policy issues end up as a minor motif in presidential politics unless American soldiers are dying in combat as they were...

Atyno ,
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The polls are wrong as long as they keep clashing with electoral reality. Nate Copper's article is heavy on poll data but flimsy on electoral anecdotes: a county election in 2020 and New York Elections with inconvenient data lopped off (The recent elections to replace George Santos).

The shift the polls are claiming are so seismic that it begs the question why this unprecedented shift is non-existent in basically every post-dobbs election. And let's not forget the fact that these polls present other, nonsensical trends to like the elderly shifting hard to Democrats too: a shift that can't easily be waved off by the usual "The shift is only in voters that only vote in presidential elections" excuse.

Atyno ,
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A lot of folks here are rightfully pessimistic about this being the actual end, considering the past history of articles like this.

I'd like to present the possibility that the GOP is crumbling BECAUSE of why those years weren't the end for the GOP like articles predicted: Trump is inflicting the same institutional damage to the RNC Obama inflicted on the DNC. The same kind of damage that gave an opening for Republicans to revitalize themselves.

The only problem is whether if there will be enough rot by this year's election: the biggest evidence of the DNC's shrivelling under Obama's shadow was the 2016 election where Hillary basically saved them from death in exchange for fealty. It's not entirely clear if the 2010 losses were from early damage or just the upswell of reactionary outrage to Obama's presidency.

Atyno ,
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Question: what party is Sinema in now?

It's pretty evident now Sinema could not be bullied if she was willing to immolate her career over even the soft demands made of her.

Atyno ,
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There was actually some news recently that these polls might actually be wrong here: apparently there's a large amount of people lying that they're Hispanic/young in online polls. This was discovered both because: 1. The "20% of youth are Holocaust deniers!" Poll that made the waves wasn't reproducible and 2. There's some BIG inconsistencies being found in many polls too, like some polls somehow managing to have a cohort of Hispanics that are 20% nuclear submarine engineers.

Basically, we might have a vicious cycle making polls wildly inaccurate here: youth (and Hispanics?) are harder to poll -> pollsters value the data more vs other demographics-> people lie to obtain the rewards being offered to get this data -> youth/Hispanics become harder to poll.

Polls usually can handle some "lizard man's constant", but everything falls apart if there's significant lying.

Atyno ,
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I think the biggest lesson tonight is it'll be political malpractice if Biden doesn't pour a bunch of resources into NC. For a closed primary, those exit polls are suggesting a huge amount of Haley voters are persuadable.

Atyno , (edited )
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I was reading exactly that actually: 81% of them refuse to vote for Trump if Haley isn't the nominee. It's surprisingly doable just from the primary numbers.

Edit: Also, Republicans nominated a literal Holocaust denier for the governor candidate. That's gonna make that race A LOT easier and maybe effect the entire ballot there.

Atyno ,
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They won't, but Colorado should still keep him off the ballot. The ruling was clearly made in fear of chaos instead of what was correct, so they deserve chaos irregardless.

Or at least make a show about it, like all those states did when Texas was told to let the fed agents cut the razor wire.

Atyno ,
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That is admittedly why I also said "or make a show about it"...

I'm actually not sure if Texas actually did stop the Feds from cutting the razor wire. I actually checked and it seems like the entire story just disappeared from all news after they made a lot of noise on it.

Atyno ,
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I feel like it was that gunning down incident with the humanitarian aid that ultimately tipped the scales.

I know I've been going on defense for Israel a lot recently, but I am kinda playing messenger boy as a neutral for being both here and some pro-Israel groups. The Michigan vote didn't really phase them, that incident did. Seen them even sharing more info about how ridiculously strict Bibi is with aid in general.

The longer Biden enables Netanyahu, the more his presidency is at risk | Mohamad Bazzi ( www.theguardian.com )

Biden, a supposed foreign policy pragmatist, doesn’t seem bothered that the US is one of the few states that continues to wholeheartedly sustain Israel’s war on Gaza. In fact, Biden has staked his political future on his support for Netanyahu and Israel – and Biden is losing. In this year’s presidential election, where...

Atyno ,
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Hell, people don't want to admit it but he can end up losing Michigan too for taking up an anti-Israel stand. There's very clearly an "anti-protest" vote that kept uncommitted at only 10% of the vote despite getting 100k of them. About 400k voters that are at risk if Biden changes course.

Atyno ,
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Pretty weak showing for the uncommitted campaign. Marginally better performance so far than in 2012, making it indistinguishable from generic discontent even though it was supposed to be over a specific issue.

Atyno , (edited )
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The percentage is more important, and it's basically the same size as 2012 which is the appropriate comparison (2016 and 2020 had other, viable candidates to vote for).

Numbers are higher... But that's the issue isn't it? Seems to me an even larger portion of voters came out to "anti-protest" the protest voters too.

Atyno ,
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You can't honestly tell me 39% is closer to 13% than 10%. 3% is not significant, it's an error margin on a poll.

The significant part is the absolute numbers, but that comes with caveat that the Biden vote was 3x Obama's in 2012 (and is 80% of the vote, which is a little less because of unviable candidates so unfortunately there's a little muddying).

Honestly, the whole thing is kinda proving to me the pro-palestine movement still isn't really big in the US despite the optics. Or, at the very least, there's still a large pro-Israel contingent that dwarfs them. And probably why Biden's been ignoring them.

Atyno ,
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But you did say 2008, you said it was a "similar" result. I'm not going to contest the anomalous nature, but the result itself is not similar at all!

My point is that I don't agree, the numbers are only consistent for 2016/2020 (because turns out most people won't waste time with an uncommitted vote when there's a viable opposition candidate: Bernie). 2012 is a deviation and in the same way this primary did. The only thing different is the absolute number of votes altogether (in a state that has had insignificant population growth mind).

Atyno ,
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This sounds like a pretty dead bill, just barely making it over the finish line (To what's basically a party line vote).

I don't know what change they could make to peel off even a single Dem, much less overcome the governor's veto.

Reddit is licensing its content to Google to help train its AI models ( www.engadget.com )

Google has struck a deal with Reddit that will allow the search engine maker to train its AI models on Reddit’s vast catalog of user-generated content, the two companies announced. Under the arrangement, Google will get access to Reddit’s Data API, which will help the company “better understand” content from the site....

Atyno ,
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Hello fellow recent AI refugee!

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