Megapost! Michigan Primary, 2/27!

Tonight is the Michigan primary and unlike previous primaries where we were specifically paying attention to the REPUBLICAN side, this one has an interest on the DEMOCRATIC side as well!

Michigan has a significant population of people with Middle Eastern or North African heritage:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/palestinian-advocates-michigan-voters-pick-uncommitted-biden/story?id=107547068

"Biden narrowly won Michigan in 2020 by some 150,000 votes -- less than half of the amount of people in the state who cited Middle Eastern or North African ancestry in the 2020 census."

Going into this primary, there is a movement to convince these folks to vote "Uncommitted" rather than for Biden in order to send a message over his policies for Gaza and Israel.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68409546

Of course, the last time we saw a similar move was in the Nevada Republican primary where Nikki Haley was running effectively unopposed. Trump supporters, voting in the caucus rather than the primary, were encouraged to vote "None of these candidates" in the primary.

That result?

None of These Candidates - 50,763 - 63.3%
Nikki Haley - 24,583 - 30.6%
Mike Pence - 3,091 - 3.9%
Tim Scott - 1,081 - 1.4%
John Castro - 270 - 0.3%

Will the "Uncommitted" push in Michigan be as successful as the 2:1 showing for "None of the Above" in Nevada?

Stay tuned!

Edit 99% Democrats reporting, Biden and Trump projected as the winners, no surprise.

Uncommitted Democrats - 101,100 - 13.3%

99% Republican ballots counted.

Uncommitted - 33,404 votes - 3%

So across both parties, around 134,000 or so "uncommitted".

Atyno ,
@Atyno@dmv.social avatar

Pretty weak showing for the uncommitted campaign. Marginally better performance so far than in 2012, making it indistinguishable from generic discontent even though it was supposed to be over a specific issue.

Reptorian ,

There still can be protest votes outside of uncommitted. But, it's hard to say, really.

jordanlund OP Mod ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Not sure where you're getting that idea. Both the numbers and the percentage is (so far) significantly higher than 2020 and 2016.

Atyno , (edited )
@Atyno@dmv.social avatar

The percentage is more important, and it's basically the same size as 2012 which is the appropriate comparison (2016 and 2020 had other, viable candidates to vote for).

Numbers are higher... But that's the issue isn't it? Seems to me an even larger portion of voters came out to "anti-protest" the protest voters too.

jordanlund OP Mod ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

The percentage is also significantly higher than 2012, but again, it's not more important.

Here are the numbers for 2012:

Uncommitted - 20,833 - 10.69%

The point being that election after election the number of uncommitted Democrats hovers around 20,000... Until this year...

100,960 - 13.3%
(95% counted)

5x the number of votes, +3% at the poll.

You have to go back to 2008 to see a similar result, which was another protest vote due to DNC shenanigans removing just about anyone not Hillary from the ballot.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

2000 - 0 - 0% (Caucus, not primary)
2004 - 497 - 0.30% (Caucus, not primary)
2008 - 238,168 - 39.61%
2012 - 20,833 - 10.69%
2016 - 21,601 - 1.79%
2020 - 19,106 - 1.20%
2024 - 100,960 - 13.3%

Atyno ,
@Atyno@dmv.social avatar

You can't honestly tell me 39% is closer to 13% than 10%. 3% is not significant, it's an error margin on a poll.

The significant part is the absolute numbers, but that comes with caveat that the Biden vote was 3x Obama's in 2012 (and is 80% of the vote, which is a little less because of unviable candidates so unfortunately there's a little muddying).

Honestly, the whole thing is kinda proving to me the pro-palestine movement still isn't really big in the US despite the optics. Or, at the very least, there's still a large pro-Israel contingent that dwarfs them. And probably why Biden's been ignoring them.

jordanlund OP Mod ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

We aren't talking about 2008 because that's an anomaly due to DNC asshattery.

From 2012 forward, the numbers are consistent... until this year.

Atyno ,
@Atyno@dmv.social avatar

But you did say 2008, you said it was a "similar" result. I'm not going to contest the anomalous nature, but the result itself is not similar at all!

My point is that I don't agree, the numbers are only consistent for 2016/2020 (because turns out most people won't waste time with an uncommitted vote when there's a viable opposition candidate: Bernie). 2012 is a deviation and in the same way this primary did. The only thing different is the absolute number of votes altogether (in a state that has had insignificant population growth mind).

jordanlund OP Mod ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Similar in that the electorate was driven to protest, but for different reasons.

return2ozma ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/b309fea8-fb3f-4f81-bde3-14b4e2931aea.jpeg

Unofficial Dearborn count showing 75% uncommitted.

jordanlund OP Mod , (edited )
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Combined Democratic and Republican closing in on 70,000 now.

edit Combined uncommitted is around 130,000, still counting!

Reptorian ,

Seems that uncommitted votes drop, but Biden seems to be reaching around 80%. I do have to wonder whether other candidates vote can be added to uncommitted vote to count as a protest vote. I think I will add them to the bucket of protest votes.

For the Democratic Party, I don't think that's bad news, actually. Most of them will still vote for President Biden, and this is a way to send a message without ruining it in the general, which I'm all for.

Some questions, how many voted uncommitted just to spite Biden, and others voted just to signal that they don't like his Middle East policies? I'm pretty sure a lot of people who don't like his middle east policies will vote for Biden because it's not about him, but democracy in the end.

return2ozma ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/a643f21b-b7f4-47d5-9291-05ff75ad2ff7.jpeg

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/28a30359-f81b-4f9e-96a5-02bae796aa87.jpeg

CNN calls it. Now we're waiting for the protest vote count.

return2ozma ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

CNN Kaitlan Collins: "We could easily see over 100,000 uncommitted votes by the end of the night at this rate."

Ensign_Crab ,

She wasn't wrong. Uncommitted cleared 100,000.

return2ozma ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

With only 85% reporting still.

return2ozma ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

CNN's John King: "Michigan typically gets 10k-20k uncommitted and we're already at 14k with only 8% reporting."

return2ozma ,
@return2ozma@lemmy.world avatar

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/41f6f178-6ddf-40a5-9c7a-47b0b3723bb4.jpeg

A college county with 21% reporting in. Uncommitted 25.2%

Reptorian ,

Looking at the votes, it appears there's quite some uncommited votes out there. Personally, I think primary votes where it's clear who's the general and that's uncontested, it's fine to place a protest vote. I'd vote uncommitted too, but voting for Biden regardless in the general because it's not about Biden, but democracy.

jordanlund OP Mod ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Yeah, it looks like 20-30K per party is "normal", so it will be interesting to see where this one comes at.

tiredofsametab ,

My primary had no such option, nor one for write-ins (not in mich) or I would have entered that. I will vote for biden because the alternative is worse, but the whole US political/voting system needs a do-over.

jordanlund OP Mod ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

Just watched an interesting interview with the secretary of state. Around a million people have already voted, around another million are expected to vote today.

In the 2020 primary, without a push to vote "Uncommitted", about 5% of the total vote did so. 19,106 on the Democratic side:

Joe Biden - 840,360 - 52.93%
Bernie Sanders - 576,926 - 36.34%
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) - 73,464 - 4.63%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) - 26,148 - 1.65%
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) - 22,462 - 1.41%
Uncommitted - 19,106 - 1.20%

32,743 on the Republican side:

Donald Trump - 640,552 - 93.7%
Uncommitted - 32,743 - 4.8%
Bill Weld - 6,099 - 0.9%
Mark Sanford (withdrawn) - 4,258 - 0.6%
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) - 4,067 - 0.6%

2016 was about the same:

Democratic Uncommitted - 21,601
Republican Uncommitted - 22,824

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