TropicalDingdong

@TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world

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TropicalDingdong ,

i wonder why this isn’t on lemmy

Because, a significant portion of lemmy are fascist apologists. They are fine with fascism as policy as long it comes with the support of their team.

In a sane world this would never get past the supreme court. Its a clear violation of the first amendment and no Democrat should have ever voted for it. We don't live in a sane world.

TropicalDingdong ,

Here's the thing, you can't sit idle and let the fascists or their apologists take the space.

Live isn't easy, its pure competition, all of the time. If you and I don't have a conversation about this bill, how its in direct opposition to like, everything that the left should stand for, and how it impacts the jewish diaspora, then it just doesn't happen.

Lemmings like @Jake_Farm are scared. They are scared shitless, and it shows every step of the way. Their candidate is floundering. They can't imagine an alternative. They can't see a way out of the corner they've painted themselves into and they're lashing out in every direction possible, even if that means ushering fascism in under a blue banner.

You and I can make a difference.

We can show people that there is a third way, a way in which we can have a dialogue, a conversation that shows that a third way is possible.

Whats most important is that we not give up the space. This is the biggest mis-step we could make. What we should not do is cede the ground. We should keep talking. We should point out how this fascist bill, that Democrats overwhelmingly supported, hurts jews across the nation and across the world, and is a direct encroachment of fascism.

You and I can make the difference.

TropicalDingdong ,

Once.

It was in gmail (I think gmail used to have text ads?), for a local job, in my field, right when I was about to quit.

I got the job.

TropicalDingdong ,

Perturbed Putin Pals Pause, Perplexed, Pending Perp's Penalization

TropicalDingdong ,

got it! thanks.

TropicalDingdong ,

There is a recursive aspect to polling, which is that 'electability' which polling performance is a part of, impacts polling.

I'm putting my called shot that by mid June when its time to run the numbers, I expect Trump to drop to a rage of about 35-40, probably coming in at a clean 37. I also expect Biden's polling to drop in that time period, from around 40 where he is now to maybe 38, 39.

The next two weeks might be the first time in the last 400 days were Trump lags Biden in overall polling.

Interestingly, this would also be in a period where both candidates are trending downward in overall polling numbers. Trumps numbers have been dropping consistently over the course of the trial, while Biden's has effectively abandoned the youth and progressive vote for (???).

Trump, at least as of last week, enjoyed a significantly higher approval rating than Biden; Biden's approval rating is still lower than any one-term president at this equivalent point in their presidency. In a sane world this would put Biden at a no-brainer, mortgage your house and put it all on "L" for Biden in the betting markets, but with Trump doing.. whatever this all is, its a race to the bottom in terms of who can be the least popular candidate(s) in electoral history.

Statisitcally, no candidate has won a second term with an approval rating as low as either Joe Biden or Donald Trump currently enjoys (although, the Trump comparison is a bit weird because of the three one term president that ever ran again, only Grover Cleveland was successful (only president to ever serve two non-consecutive terms).

TropicalDingdong ,

Big milk is a headline I usually expect to see coming from lemmynsfw.com

TropicalDingdong ,

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/9f6abb0f-0d30-47fb-9e6a-a54ef79ad7e6.png

Does Trump being found guilty actually matter?

Since he can still run for office and become president while in prison, is this actually going to do anything to stop him from being president? Obviously it's not gonna sway anyone who's gonna vote for him, so is there any actual way this keeps him from office, or at least has some positive effect for us? I wanna join the...

TropicalDingdong ,

Yeah. It definitely matters. Republicans and voters who voted for him in 2016 or 2020 aren't a monolith. They are on a spectrum.

People change. People move on. People use lots of factors to decide what they think the best strategy is going to be.

There is a kind of recursive/ circular reasoning people use to determine who they support, which is specifically "how likely is this person to be elected?", their electability. People aren't willing to support a candidate if they don't see them as 'viable' (which itself is determined in-part by how much support a candidate has).

Being a felon is just, straight-up, a hit to electability. A felon Trump is fundamentally less electable than non-felon Trump.

There is some cohort of republican voters that will never move on from Trump. There is some cohort of republican voters that are barely attached to Trump. Most lay some where in between. I would guess that maybe 10-15% of Republican voters won't ever vote for anyone but Trump. Maybe the same percentage are barely attached to Trump (again 10-15%). If even 3-5% of Republican voters move away from Trump, heck if even 1% of Republican voters can be moved on this, that has big impacts because of the self-feeding nature of 'electability'. A 3% drop in polling for Trump can very quickly turn into a 5-10% drop in polling.

This ruling makes it just that much harder for Trump to grow his base.

TropicalDingdong ,

That is a grim but valid point.

I still think it's a spectrum and I put it at a 2-8% drop in polling by June, and a 6-12 point drop by July.

Keep in mind that's not a probability of victory. Biden also working to lower his polling numbers.

TropicalDingdong ,

Lotta Newsom being pushed out there.

TropicalDingdong ,

I haven't watched the video, but I want to address your rhetoric, because it has several issues.

What you are engaging in is a form of projection.

No one is obligated to give you a solution to a problem, or does their identification of a problem imply they have some kind of ulterior motive. You are projecting what you wish their motivation was onto them, and then attacking them what you imagine their motivation to be.

Saying that Joe Biden's electoral chances are weak and he has little chance of getting elected doesn't mean I support Trump. Before we can have a conversation about alternatives, we need to be honest with ourselves about what the facts are. Being clear eyed about facts doesn't mean I support your perceived opposing interpretation of what those facts mean.

When and if you do this thing, you are projecting a false narrative onto people. In projecting that false narrative, you shut down the legitimate criticism they are bringing forward, which is a kind of gaslighting.

There are two primary fallacies at work here, the red hearing fallacy and the false choice fallacy.

The red hearing fallacy is that instead of addressing the premise of the argument the interlocutor is making, you are projecting onto them a perceived motivation (your perception), identifying that as the issue, and attacking that. Its way of distracting from their premise and making the argument about something it isn't or didn't' start as.

The false dichotomy fallacy is that this is a binary between Trump and Biden, which has nothing to do with the arguers premise. Its not clear to me that the video even mentions Trump (I'll check it out once I get this response written), which isn't at all what they were arguing. Its another form of gaslighting, that if you are bringing these criticisms forward, you must support Trump.

The original interlocutor owes you answers to neither of those. I bring this criticism of your rhetoric to your attention because I've been seeing the identical sequence of fallacies, in almost the exact same order, being used across lemmy in an attempt to shut down criticism of Biden, to ignore his realistic chances of re-election, and in-general, to gaslight people as if they were Trump supporters because they are bringing forward legitimate criticism of Biden.

Suppose I tell you your house is flooding. Your current response would have two components: "Flooding is far less damaging than fire", and "You must be a fan of fire if you aren't telling me how to put stop the flooding".

Neither of those have anything to do with the original premise of if the house is, in-fact, flooding.

No one owes you a solution to your problems. Them bringing up that you have a problem doesn't make them a proponent of some other problem.

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean, do you recognize the kind of gaslighting you are engaged in?

Like I really tried to make the structure of what you are doing clear for you.

TropicalDingdong ,

Lemmy: What you've never heard the legal term justifiable genocide?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EoHMo3sHvM8

TropicalDingdong ,

“Saying that Joe Biden’s electoral chances are weak and he has little chance of getting elected doesn’t mean I support Trump.”

That's just an example of the kind same kind of fallacy I'm outlining for you. Its fine that you don't want to respond. I'll be posting a similar analysis of this kind of rhetoric wherever I see it, so don't expect it to go away.

Its important because what you are doing is an extremely disingenuous/ deceptive type of rhetorical slight of hand, that I think many people have a 'sense' of being present, but if they don't see it broken out in specific terms, can't quite put their finger on exactly what you are doing. I'm using you as a test to see where the gaps are, so thanks for the feed back. I'll tune up paragraph four in the future to draw directly upon the particulars of the demonstrated gaslighting.

TropicalDingdong ,

Craigslist forums.

TropicalDingdong ,

JFC I didn't even notice the x axis at first glance.

TropicalDingdong ,

There is no excuse for this kind of ungodly travesty of a lie made with data.

They are awarded no points and may God have mercy on their soul.

TropicalDingdong ,

MILF Manor?

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/d6091e5f-3992-4d88-aa4f-1877433c4f44.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

*clicks link *

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/43c2d92e-e650-4fcf-a38d-bd15bb44f342.png

Edit:

From the wikipedia:

The show currently has a 14% rating on Rotten Tomatoes,[41] where critics describe it as "psychological torture" and "Freudian Horror".

TropicalDingdong , (edited )

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/03f18a4b-ae8d-4f53-8c74-847dd698ff32.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

If the Biden campaign knew up from down they wouldn't be polling in the thirties.

I think we see Niki Haley restart her campaign, and I think there is a real possibility we see Mitt Romney throw his hat into the ring.

Guarantee the Haley camp is discussing this right now.

TropicalDingdong ,

Trumpers ain't leaving Trump. 100%.

But Trump voters aren't all Trumpers. The RNC isn't a monolith. Plenty of them went with Trump as the most likely to win.

But now there is blood in the water. My guess is that there is between 10-15% of Trump voters who are die hard Trumpers who won't move on from Trump, maybe ever. The rest are on a spectrum that can be moved. There is at least a non-zero percent of voters that for them, but if he's seen as no longer viable... well that does change things. Perception matters a lot here. Its the electability aspect, that a felon just can't become elected.

If its 3-10% of Republican likelies, that's a huge difference.

TropicalDingdong ,

I think you misunderstand me or I wasnt clear enough.

I meant that there will be a 10-15% cohort still voting Trump in 2040 after he's dead and buried because that was a 'false' flag and actually Trump was JFK and actually his robot soul was captured by Neuralink and if you write his name enough times on a mirror backwards then he'll become president Jesus again. Like there are 10-15% of people who will be voting for Trump, regardless of who the nominee is, and may never vote for anyone ever again.

I also think there are gradations within the RNC. I don't think its a monolith. I think some, probably about as many those who can-not, can be moved away from Trump, not for moral or any kind of 'good' reasons, other than voting for him seems like a less strategic vote.

He might still end up being the nominee. But like the DNC, the RNC has no commitment to follow the will of their voters. If he is in jail and can't directly influence things, who knows.

TropicalDingdong ,

I'm not watching this debate.

TropicalDingdong ,

Well shit that was fast.

TropicalDingdong ,

Meidas touch live stream:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkRFl-zQbK4

Meidas touch is a YT channel composed mostly of lawyers who take a particularly 'legal' take on the news and days events. They have MIchael Cohen as a contributor. They have former prosecutors from the NY Attorney Generals office as contributers.

These are the guys to be watching for this.

TropicalDingdong ,

So fast it makes the head spin.

TropicalDingdong ,

Trumps poll numbers after this:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/5aa5b062-e2b1-4343-a7c7-4c132a56c341.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

GUILTY ON ALL 34 COUNTS!

ABSOLUTE CONSENSUS FROM JURY!!!

TropicalDingdong ,

GUILTY GUILTY GUILTY GUILTY!!!!

GUILTY ON ALL 34 COUNTS!!! FUCK YOU DJT!!!

TropicalDingdong ,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkRFl-zQbK4

TropicalDingdong ,

💯

Same vibe.

TropicalDingdong ,

Tef-FELON-don!

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean his die hards aren't going any where.

How I think this impacts things is the 'perceived' electability. Trump as a 'convicted' felon is far less electable than not-a-convicted-felon Trump.

There is a self-selection bias in poles based on if people think someone "can" win. Trump easily loses 5-10% in the polls because of this, which puts him back to nose-to-nose with Biden.

I think we see Romney maybe throw his hat in the ring. This is a referendum of the entire MAGA approach to politics which is basically utter disregard for the law. All of a sudden the door is WIDE open for challengers from within the Republican party.

TropicalDingdong ,

Well I have been considering a FOSS/ fediverse app for better organizing my memes. I just have a big folder with key tags that I can search within right now.

TropicalDingdong ,

You can bet on whatever you want. I think you should.

I'm betting a 5-10% drop in his poll numbers by July.

TropicalDingdong ,

Totally counts. Tell me about your business. There, now you are working.

TropicalDingdong ,

FOSS: "Free and open source"

TropicalDingdong ,

I mean, the timing is all wrong. J6 had a series of dependencies associated with it.

Like, they are fucked for timing right now. Couldn't be a worse time this could have happened electorally. I guess he can campaign from prison?

TropicalDingdong ,

Yeah I don't know either. I'll watch MeidasTouch for the analysis on that. They've called pretty much every aspect of this trial correctly. Its a YT channel of all attorneys, trial lawyers, former prosecutors, etc. When it comes to law, not much better. They have former members of the NY AG office as contributors. None better.

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/77806e84-582e-47ac-bf63-5d553aca9eef.gif

TropicalDingdong ,

Yeah its not like sentencing waits for appeal right?

People who have been in prison for years are still going for appeals.

TropicalDingdong ,

Its pretty far to the right (liberal/conservative), and they spam your feed constantly with click baity ass shit. Most of its not worth clicking on. Ragebait, clickbait, wishcasting, nothing burgers.

The two reasons to have been watching it until now have been Karen Friedman Agnifilo, and Michael Cohen. Both are contributors to the channel.

Karen Friedman Agnfilo is a former prosecutor in the office (30 years) that was prosecuting Trump. And Micheal Cohen is.. well.. he's Michael Cohen.

These two figures are particularly informative in regards to this trial, and so are worth watching. Once this trial is well behind us, I'm not going to be watching the channel, unless its specifically regarding a legal matter.

And that's the divide for me. This channel is great for legal analysis. But their political analysis is just, myopic, to say the least. I don't go to them for political analysis. They don't know up from down in this regard.

If you want great legal analysis, they are the best.

If you want recommendations for political analysis lmk.

TropicalDingdong ,

Yeah its very much nitty gritty, wonk++ level analysis.

TropicalDingdong ,

Even 1:12 or 1:24 would make a huge difference this election cycle.

Its not even June and I'm already excited for July's polling.

I wonder if both Trump and Biden can poll below 40% at some point before November.

TropicalDingdong ,

So this was from a live-stream last night: https://www.youtube.com/live/Wr9HHQYyKeg?si=PtXqucMtls3BJR8C&t=1920

It seems like the jury is taking the process at least fairly seriously, and that the "We the jury" line, makes a clear statement that they themselves see themselves as "on the same team".

If guilty, whats your over-under on # of counts? I think if I'm the defense, this gives me extreme pause. I think Trumps out was getting at least one renegade juror who intended to hang the whole thing. The note implies to me that this isn't the case.

State Department official resigns after Biden administration says Israel not blocking Gaza aid ( www.middleeasteye.net )

A career State Department official resigned from her post on Tuesday, saying she could no longer work for the Biden administration after it released a report concluding that Israel was not preventing the flow of aid to Gaza....

TropicalDingdong ,

Its not a false premise whatsoever that Biden will not be the next president.
Its the constant theme in all the data we have available to us on the matter.

First approval polls:

On this date of Trumps presidency, he was dick deep in covid and maybe the most uncertain period of time in recent history.

Even with all that, he had five points on Biden: 42.6 to 37.8. Trump remained a one term president.

Same date of George H.W. Bush's presidency, Bush had 3 points on Biden, at 40.

Jimmy Carter, another one term president. 40.7 on today's date in his presidency.

Literally every single one term President of the last 60 years was polling higher than Joe Biden is currently polling, at this exact point in their presidency.

Presidents that won a second term? ALL of them were beating Bidens currently approval by 10 points or better on this date of their presidency. And more importantly, their polling percentage over time was rising, as in, going up and to the right. Bidens polling isn't going up and to the right. Its going down. He's not gaining traction, he's losing it.

Now onto head to head polls:

Biden over-polls by about 4%, Trump under-polls by about 8% when compared to real election results:

How is Biden polling in a head to head? He's losing to Trump, and has been losing to Trump in head to head polling for over 400 days. Out of the last 50 polls, Biden has lost 47 of them in a head to head with Trump. Thats not accounting for differential sampling error. If you account for the typical pattern of sampling error we would associate with a Biden v Trump head to head, Biden has won precisely 0 polls against Trump in the last 400 days.

If the election were tomorrow, it wouldn't even be close. Trump would win in a blow out.

You need to pull your head out of the sand.

TropicalDingdong ,

Bro you are completely delusional if you think I'm for Trump.

And our bets still stands yeah?

Because I'm feeling better than ever about it.

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