Ranvier

@Ranvier@sopuli.xyz

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Ranvier ,

The Moores were backed by anti-regulatory and business groups.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/06/20/supreme-court-decision-trump-tax-on-foreign-earnings/73793041007/

So they weren't really paying for the case most likely. I've also seen some articles mention that the facts of the case as presented to the court may not have been entirely accurate, possible the Moores or their lawyers lied or misrepresented some things in the case. I haven't been able to find more details on what exactly they're referencing though.

NYC’s AI chatbot created to help small business owners was caught telling them to break the law. The city isn’t taking it down. ( apnews.com )

An artificial intelligence-powered chatbot created by New York City to help small business owners is under criticism for dispensing bizarre advice that misstates local policies and advises companies to violate the law....

Ranvier ,

Since everyone is so obsessed with AI and won't listen to real people talking about problems, I asked chat gpt if the new york city Ai should remain online:

If a chatbot AI consistently provides incorrect information about New York laws, it could potentially mislead people and cause harm or legal issues. It would be advisable to either improve the chatbot's accuracy and reliability and suspend its operation until it can provide correct and reliable information. Providing accurate legal information is crucial, especially for those who may rely on it for important decisions.

There, now since AI has said suspend the AI, they can suspend the AI.

US aircraft carrier counters false Houthi claims with 'Taco Tuesdays' as deployment stretches on - AP ( apnews.com )

“I think it’s been about two or three times in the past six months we’ve allegedly been sunk, which we have not been,” Hill told The Associated Press during a recent visit to the carrier. “It is almost comical at this point. They’re attempting to maybe inspire themselves through misinformation, but it doesn’t work...

Ranvier ,

Person above you either didn't read the article they posted or is hoping other people won't. Not that Al Jazeera doesn't have its own biases and blind spots like any news source, but I don't see anything incorrect in that article. They even put quotes around the word attack and then say only that Houthis claim they attacked them. It only mentions a sunk ship when it talks about the Houthi attacks on merchant vessels, which is true, they they sunk a Belize flagged ship containing fertilizer and fuel that was on its way from the UAE to Bulgaria.

https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-rebels-rubymar-sinks-red-sea-fb64a490ce935756337ee3606e15d093

Ranvier ,

Churches should be required to have supervising drag queens, would help prevent abuse. Priest you need to meet one on one with a kid? Fine, but only if this fabulous queen here sits in the room with you both.

Ranvier ,

So same as always?

Ranvier , (edited )

France, Germany and the ECB worry about Russian retaliation targeting European assets, and also the potential impact on financial stability and the euro’s status as a reserve currency. There’s concern that depositors from emerging economies may be encouraged to pull money out of western banks, fragmenting the global financial system.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen downplayed such risks in February, arguing that “there are not alternatives to the dollar, euro, yen.” She said that if the G-7 acted together then the group would be representing half of the global economy and all of the currencies that really have the capacity at this point to serve as reserve currencies.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/why-seizing-russian-assets-to-fund-ukraine-is-fraught/ar-BB1jHeKz

I agree with you, they should just be able to tap the assets directly. Basically some European countries are worried about the effects seizing assets could have on the Euro. Most of these assets are held in Europe as euros. The loan is actually an improvement over the original proposal though. Originally France Germany, etc were pushing only for the 3 billion in interest a year on the assets to be given to Ukraine. The loan solution was pushed by other countries who wanted to give them more cash from the Russian assets as a way to give $50 billion in cash immediately, with those yearly interest payments from Russian assets being used to pay off the loan.

Registering as an "Independent" party member doesn't mean you have no party affiliation; most states have an Independent party who has a platform that you may or may not agree with!

It’s a common misconception, but if you registered "Independent Party" you aren’t “independent” you are a member of your state’s Independent party, who has a platform and agenda you may or may not agree with. What you actually want is called an "unaffiliated" voter status. The good news is, all you have to do...

Ranvier ,

Some states have open primaries, you just vote in whatever one you want. Not every state requires registering with a party to vote in the primary.

Ranvier ,

I get the impression there is not model for why sometimes thousands of base pairs can fuck off with no impact, and sometimes it changes the organism unrecognizably.

No there's many known reasons that can happen. Here's just some of them, but in the end it all comes down to understanding that genes code for proteins, little molecular machines. Sometimes there are multiple copies of genes that code for similar proteins or even the same protein, so losing one or even more doesn't really do anything as there's more where that came from. Sometimes there are genes that used to be important but no longer have a role or were made redundant, and are free to sedit. If a gene codes for a protein called an enzyme, sometimes a change in the active site that binds the chemicals for the reaction it assists might be catastrophic, but a change elsewhere doesn't do much because it's not as necessary to the function of the protein. Sometimes changes even result in the a similar amino acid or the exact same amino acid getting put at thag spot (since the genetic code has some redundancies, a different combo might still end up being the same).

Many genes code for proteins called transcription factors. Transcription factors help control expression of many other genes, some of which might also be transcription factors that in turn affect other genes, etc. This can create huge cascades. For instance there are things called hox genes that are very important for creating a cascade that leads to the formation of different body segments, and differentiating the different body segments. Mutations in these genes can be devastating, in some animals leading to the dissappearance or redundant addition of whole body segments.

There is tons more to learn of course on specifics in terms of evolution, genetics, and molecular biology of course. I don't think it's comparable to gravity though, which we seem to have a fundamental gap and irreconcilable theories.

At least coming from a background of life sciences personally, it seems to me evolution is probably better understood than gravity. I think a better comparison to gravity in the life sciences might be abiogenesis (how pre life conditions give rise to life to begin with). Once life is going, evolution, that we have a ton on. Not that we know nothing about abiogenesis, but that it's a difficult outstanding problem.

US will send Ukraine another Patriot missile system after Kyiv's desperate calls for air defenses ( apnews.com )

The United States will send Ukraine another Patriot missile system, two U.S. officials said Tuesday, answering Kyiv’s desperate calls for more air defenses as it battles an intense Russian assault on the northeastern Kharkiv region....

Ranvier , (edited )

https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2023/11/13/u-s-ramps-up-patriot-missile-production-after-ukraine-war-success/

Good news, production was ramped up. Looks like Ukraine also is getting five more straight from the company this year, in addition to more coming from the US and Germany. I think the Netherlands sent one as well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/us/politics/patriot-missiles-ukraine-war.html

US has 14 of them (well soon to be 13 I guess)

By my count, with the three Ukraine has, the two more being given now, five more from the company, should bring them up to 10 batteries by the end of the year?

Ranvier ,

They cost a billion each to manufacture... Only 280 have ever been made...

100k a month would be 100 trillion dollars a year, might be a bit overkill for just one weapon type.

And that's not even getting to all the people needed to staff a battery.

Anyways they did ramp up production, Ukraine is getting five more from the company of the 12 they can now build in a year. Should bring Ukraine up to ten batteries total by the end of the year including the gifted ones from the US and Germany.

https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2023/11/13/u-s-ramps-up-patriot-missile-production-after-ukraine-war-success/

Ranvier , (edited )

Sure there's economies of scale, but that is an absolutely ridiculous mind boggling number of a single surface to air missile system. Even Ukraine at it's highest ask says 25 (though they estimate all major cities would be covered by 7), and you think they should make 100,000 batteries?! Every year?! What would be the point of that? Who on earth would buy that many and why?

Even if they were manufactured at 20% of their current cost, a massive markdown, that would be $20 trillion a year dedicated to a single kind of a single weapon type, nearly as much as the entire gdp of the United States, and you still need the entire rest of your military paid for! They going to make 100,000 f35s and train 50,000 pilots too or something?

I'm gonna stop, this must be trolling.

Ranvier , (edited )

It is not hard to find tons of unequivocal statements of support, approval from major organizations like planned parenthood themselves of his policies and budgets, and many different executive department orders and initiatives begining early in his term. I agree with you he and democrats should continue to hammer that though, I'm just confused by comments acting like Biden hasn't expressed his support for abortion rights many times already, in both actions and words. He immediately took actions to help Planned Parenthood back in 2021 as some of the first things he did in office. Guess the dems just need better messengers if people are really missing all of this. But did any of you even watch the state of the union? He hammered on this pretty hard.

https://time.com/6173002/joe-biden-abortion-fundamental-right/

“I believe that a woman’s right to choose is fundamental, Roe has been the law of the land for almost fifty years, and basic fairness and the stability of our law demand that it not be overturned,” Biden said

https://time.com/6898688/biden-ivf-abortion-state-of-the-union/

“Her own life and ability to have children in the future were at risk,” Biden said. “It’s happening to too many others.” He warned that many Republicans in the room were promising voters that they would pass a national abortion ban. “My God what freedom else will you take away?” Biden said

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4706610-biden-urges-congress-restore-roe-v-wade-protections-senate-gop-blocks-contraception-bill/

“We’ll continue to fight to protect access to reproductive health care and we urge Congress to restore the protections of Roe v. Wade in federal law,” Biden continued.

Summary of more recent executive department actions:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/07/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-continues-the-fight-for-reproductive-freedom/

https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/pressroom/planned-parenthood-action-fund-responds-to-biden-harris-administrations-fy25-budget

While more funding is urgently needed to fully support sexual and reproductive health care across the country and around the world, this budget is a strong indicator of the administration’s priorities

https://www.plannedparenthood.org/about-us/newsroom/press-releases/planned-parenthood-welcomes-biden-commitment-to-sexual-and-reproductive-health-and-looks-forward-to-full-fiscal-year-2024-budget

Planned Parenthood Welcomes Biden Commitment to Sexual and Reproductive Health

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-04-16/biden-planned-parenthood

Column: A Trump-era attack on Planned Parenthood and women’s health comes to an end

https://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/pressroom/planned-parenthood-action-fund-endorses-joe-biden-for-president

Ranvier ,

Did you look at any of the links? That's exactly what he said, multiple times in the past, and continues to do so, like in the state of the union... I linked tons of things his administration has done over multiple years, endorsements of his policies and budgets from abortion right groups for multiple years. I don't know what else I can tell you, I don't know how he could be any more clear in his statements.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-biden-promises-to-restore-roe-v-wade-as-the-law-of-the-land-in-his-2024-state-of-the-union

“If Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose, I promise you: I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again,” the president said, with Supreme Court justices in attendance for this address to Congress.

So I guess grab ten friends who aren't registered and get to voting.

Ranvier ,

The house did pass a bill codifying Roe v Wade with Biden's support during his first two years when dems still controlled the house. Biden tried to get the senate to overturn the filibuster to get the bill through. The first president to support overturning the filibuster for something in over 100 years to the best of my knowledge (I think Wilson was the last one to make an attack on the filibuster, but that was just to get it to our present day rules from an even worse version). And I already linked many active ways his administration has supported abortion rights and reproductive rights more generally throughout the first term. Sorry but I don't think there's any point in continuing the discussion any longer, because I think your mind is made up and no matter what I point out the goal posts will be shifted again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-says-he-supports-exception-to-filibuster-to-codify-roe-v-wade-into-law-11656596123

Ranvier ,

Thank you, and to be clear I totally agree with you, this needs to be shouted from the rooftops as a central part of his and many other democrats campaign

Ranvier ,

Holy crap you're awesome! A president supportive of abortion rights isn't a guarantee of getting something through, but it's definitely a whole lot easier than trying to get something through with a president that doesn't support them.

Ranvier ,

I think that's a misreading of one statement, I think in context he's communicating, the president cannot pass laws. He's done everything he can within the powers of the executive branch to support reproductive rights. Without a congress that is willing to pass a law he can sign (including senators willing to overturn the filibuster), there is not much more he can do at this point.

I guess you could say maybe he could veto all legislation unless they pass something codifying Roe v Wade? But I think that would backfire, as people begin suffering from massive government shutdowns and a few people just splinter to start voting with Republicans to over ride the vetos and effectively the Republicans are in control now and Roe v Wade still isn't codified.

In the end Biden is right, at least with this form of government and this Supreme Court, a pro choice president isn't enough no matter how ferverent (though I would argue Biden has been the most ardent pro choice president there's ever been). We need a pro choice congress too, and senators with the courage to scrap the filibuster to protect a fundamental right and pass a law. Or a congress that is willing to pass a bill to expand the supreme court. It's just not something the president can do on his/her own.

Ranvier ,

Millions even, we haven't been this warm in millions of years! And same for our co2 concentrations. All done in the blink of an eye geologically speaking. We've reversed a natural Co2 trend in only 0.004% of the time!

The commenter above you and anyone in doubt desperately needs to see these graphs:

https://earth.org/data_visualization/a-brief-history-of-co2/

If we follow projections and do nothing to change our behavior we'll get to levels and temperatures not seen in hundreds of millions of years, all bascially instantly when compared to the the ability of life to evolve and adapt. Earth will survive, it's been through worse. Gonna be rough on the humans though. We were 10c temperature above where we were then, but it would be even worse now of we got back to those co2 levels, becaue of differences in orbit and solar activity.

Ranvier ,

Usually the people screaming what about China also forget that per capita the US is still producing more greenhouses gases, and that much of the greenhouse gases emitted in China are to manufacture things used in other countries or arguments about historical emissions burden.

China has work to do too, but per capita there are a whole bunch of countries that emit more per capita.

US is at 256% global average emissions per capita, China is at 157% global average. So China is still above average, but not as bad as the US, Russia, Australia, Canada, or many Middle eastern countries right now. Though also should be noted the US is on an improving trend whereas China is on a worsening trend, though looks like hopefully China may be reversing this trend soon, they seem to be at least plateauing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_greenhouse_gas_emissions_per_capita

Ranvier , (edited )

FTA:

At first blush, Ms. Lindenbaum would seem a surprising apostate for the left. She once marched with Code Pink, the left-wing antiwar group, and later served as a top lawyer for Stacey Abrams, the progressive former candidate for Georgia governor, and her voting-rights group.

“She came from the progressive community, so I think everyone was caught by surprise,” said Craig Holman, a lobbyist for Public Citizen, a consumer-advocacy group.

Pretty surprising, wasn't like some staffer for a more conservative dem or something, all public indicators were pointing to a progressive person. She also had the support of Bernie Sanders and other progressives, so the people in this comment thread implying omg Biden snuck a conservative onto the FEC are seriously misguided here or didn't read the article.

Ranvier ,

Sorry, from the article

Ranvier ,

Alito made these remarks in conversation at the Supreme Court Historical Society’s annual dinner on June 3, a function that is known to right-wing activists as an opportunity to buttonhole Supreme Court justices. His comments were recorded by Lauren Windsor, a liberal documentary filmmaker. Windsor attended the dinner as a dues-paying member of the society under her real name, along with a colleague. She asked questions of the justice as though she were a religious conservative. 

Great reporting job by Lauren Windsor.

Ranvier , (edited )

They're comparing a 45 mpg car to a 65 mpg car I believe, I think they're just re reporting this press release. Still sounds a little low though, some back of the napkin math assuming gas is $3/gallon would still suggest you'd save that much after only like 30,000 miles. Savings would be more if you drove your car further than that over its life or if gas was more expensive.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/new-fuel-economy-standards-model-years-2027-2031

The Washington post article and the nhsta press release are confusing, 50 mpg isn't the standard, that's just the average mpg for the mix of cars and trucks they expect to be sold in 2031.

The standards are increasing to 65 mpg for cars over time (there are yearly increases that gradually get there) and 45 mpg for light trucks/suvs. Heavy trucks and vans are also getting higher percent increases in required mpg average, though begining from a lower floor. The mix of all of the vehicle classes bring sold together will average to 50 mpg, which is where the Washington post gets that number.

Nyt article and the actual rule draft both have a lot more details.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/07/climate/biden-mileage-electric-vehicles.html

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2024-06/CAFE-2027-2031-HDPUV-2030-2035_Final-Rule_web_0.pdf

Biden Administration Tightens Mileage Standards to Buoy E.V.s | The new rule requires automakers to achieve an average of 65 miles per gallon across all models by 2031. ( www.nytimes.com )

The new standards require American automakers to increase fuel economy so that, across their product lines, their passenger vehicles would average 65 miles per gallon by 2031, up from 48.7 miles today. The average mileage for light trucks, including pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles, would have to reach 45 miles per...

Ranvier ,

Yes it's a little ridiculous. At least the "light truck" mpg requirement is getting increased too, though not as much as the car one:

The new standards require American automakers to increase fuel economy so that, across their product lines, their passenger cars would average 65 miles per gallon by 2031, up from 48.7 miles today. The average mileage for light trucks, including pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles, would have to reach 45 miles per gallon, up from 35.1 miles per gallon.

Ranvier ,

The last time there were co2 levels like this was about three million years ago, but humans have gotten back there in less then two centuries, basically instantly in geologic terms. What could go wrong?

Ranvier ,

Yeah, par for the course for Hannity and anything fox news related, misleading headline and quote, from a misleading non-answer by Trump that's so all over the place it's hard to follow. Even the tiny little portion they clipped out, he goes on to say he has "every right" to go after Biden if elected.

Look, when this election is over, based on what they’ve done, I would have every right to go after them, and it’s easy, because it’s Joe Biden and you see all the criminality, all of the money that’s going into the family and him, all of this money from China, from Russia, from Ukraine

And his accusations that Biden is directing his prosecution (especially ridiculous when two of the cases are state cases) are all projection anyways to distract from the fact that he's already tried to interfere at the justice department many times when he was president.

"Trump ratchets up call for DOJ to investigate Hillary Clinton"
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/03/trump-doj-investigate-hillary-clinton-244505

"Trump ups pressure on Barr to probe Bidens as election nears"
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-william-barr-elections-20fd56b64801dd83b1657c630a1ebdfa

"Trump breaches boundaries by saying DOJ should be ‘going after’ Democrats"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-breaches-boundaries-by-saying-doj-should-be-going-after-democrats/2017/11/03/1c157c08-c0aa-11e7-97d9-bdab5a0ab381_story.html

"‘Where are all of the arrests?’: Trump demands Barr lock up his foes"
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/07/trump-demands-barr-arrest-foes-427389

"Report: Trump wanted to prosecute Comey, Hillary Clinton"
https://apnews.com/article/060ca2399a744b4a9554dbd2ec276a90

Such a short memory Trump has. So yes, it is very true, and he's already tried to do it many times. I know you're probably a troll posting misinformation, this comment is for anyone else reading.

Ranvier ,

Geeze dude, half of the shit in there is out of Trump's own mouth. The first quote I listed was from the interview you posted! From Sean Hannity! If you're not just a troll, you really need to take a step back and at least listen to some of the things your own god king is saying.

And yeah I'll be sure not to vote for Hunter Biden or his laptop for president, thanks.

Ranvier , (edited )

They do leave the body over time, but the half life is very long, like 3-10 years depending on the specific one.

Blood levels of many of them have fallen a lot since the year 2000ish as some were phased out, though of course there's dangers of more being made.

https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/pfas/health-effects/us-population.html

There's also new rules going in effect 2025 to require them to be removed from tap water if present, using a different process called ion exchange. The method described in the article is a way of destroying them once they're removed, so a way to treat high pfa level waste basically.

https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/pfas/health-effects/us-population.html

Horrible how multiple companies like 3M and Dupont were covering up their dangers for years. $10 billion doesn't seem like nearly enough in damages.

https://time.com/6289893/3m-forever-chemical-pfas-settlement/

Especially when the costs of keeping it out of affected drinking water systems alone is expected to be $1.5 billion, per year.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2024/04/10/1243775736/epa-pfas-forever-chemicals-drinking-water-limits

Ranvier ,

Yes. By all means primary one of those democrats who voted for this out if you can, but if you got to the general election and the choice was between a pro Israel Republican and pro Israel Democrat, it would still be way better to pick the dem.

100% of house Republicans voted for this, while only 20% of house Democrats did. Right now the Republicans control what bills come to the floor for a vote since they have a majority. If Democrats had the majority and controlled the speakership, this bill never would have even come up for a vote in the first place since so few in their caucus support it overall. A pro Israel dem is not ideal, but at least helps ensure the 100% pro Israel (and a bajillion other reasons for being horrible besides this issue) Republicans don't control the agenda for what bills come up in the house and senate.

Ranvier ,

Yes it's using a shaky interpretation of an older law from the 50s to derive its authority, good chance a court challenge would be successful against the order, if the order is able to even change much on its own at all with the lack of funding as you pointed out.

Importantly one of the Republican arguments against attempts at any immigration reform has been, "Biden could just do what we want right now with existing laws, so we refuse to compromise with the democrats on anything or pass a new immigration law, Biden can just shut everything down right now with no action on congress's part." So if a court strikes this order down would undercut that argument at least. Would also make me happy, since I don't support this order.

Improving access to legal immigration and improving thoroughput of asylum claims processing are what's necessary.

Ranvier ,

Just to be clear, this was a primary election within the pro state hood party (PNP), who tend a little toward the republican side, ironically given the national Republican's party obstruction of consideration of Puerto Rico state hood. So even the democrats within that party will tend toward the conservative side. The other major party PPD is in general in favor of continuing the status quo as a US territory, or some advocating for independence with a free association with the US. This party tends to lean a little more toward the democrats.

Both of the two major parties have Democrats and Republicans in them though, and are more defined based on views of Puerto Rico's status in regards to the rest of the US. There are also some significant larger additional parties.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Puerto_Rico

Anyways, that was why both candidates are pro state hood, it's the primary for the pro state hood party. And as someone else pointed out, Democrat vs Republican is too simple of a way to view the political situation.

Ranvier ,

I know it's a shit post, but for anyone not aware the FBI used to assist in the persecution of lgbt people and engage in all sorts of surveillance including infiltrating lgbt rights organizations.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/xg8dzn/-the-fbi-secretly-tracked-gay-activists-in-the-60s

https://outhistory.org/exhibits/show/fbi-history/2010-2019

So it's not only a shit post, but a shit post pointing out some very important recent history.

Ranvier ,

mulling use of a 1952 law that allows access to the American asylum system to be restricted.

Someday givessomefucks will learn the difference between a law and executive order. Today is not this day though.

Ranvier ,

I have this other weird idea. What if like, politicians don't commit crimes instead? And if they do commit a crime, they go to jail. How about that?

Ranvier ,

I wouldn't be surprised if the Trump campaign released an ad campaign tomorrow that looked like this with no hint of irony:

https://sopuli.xyz/pictrs/image/a78732b2-7558-4818-b63a-dc368f499a07.webp

Ranvier ,

Who even had his charity shut down for fraud. Too many scams to keep track of.

Ranvier ,

Apparently, assuming he's voting in Florida, for an out of state felony they use the other state's rules to determine if he can vote. For New York, you can vote unless you are in prison for a felony (people on parole can vote). So unfortunately unless he's thrown in jail, he'll probably be able to vote for himself in Florida.

https://www.aclufl.org/sites/default/files/field_documents/florida_voting_rights_amendment_4_one_pager_august_2022_final.pdf

But hey maybe he goes to jail for something finally. That'd be nice.

Ranvier ,

This would make it far harder for the U.S. Department of Agriculture to add new items, or — as the Biden administration did in 2021 — to offer more support to, for example, buy more fruits and vegetables.

Republican party platform: people in poverty have far too much access to vegetables! This must be capped.

Ranvier ,

So this is how sharknado begins...

But no in seriousness spraying seawater into the air over seawater to reflect more heat sounds interesting. The ocean itself has a very low albido compared to clouds of any brightness.

Ranvier ,

Sympathizers? I mean they started the trump presidency by marching in the streets with torches and there's already been a Reichstag fire. Trump kept a collection of Hitler's speeches on his night stand and rips lines straight from it all the time. I think you can just call them Nazis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite_the_Right_rally

Ranvier ,

It's part of the process. Now the request is before judges who will decide whether or not to issue the arrest warrants. For reference, when an ICC prosecutor asked for an arrest warrant for Vladmir Putin, it took a couple months for the judges to decide and then issue the warrant.

Watchdog readies crackdown on predatory lending after Supreme Court win ( www.washingtonpost.com )

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plans to restart its aggressive crackdown against payday lenders and other companies that offer high-cost, short-term loans to poor borrowers, after a Supreme Court ruling this week resolved a challenge to the federal agency’s authority to act....

Ranvier ,

They are now legal to grow in many states. Unfortunately still not going to find it in a grocery store most likely. I grow my own in the backyard so I can have some at least part of the year. They're perennial, very easy to grow, and produce a ton of berries. Gooseberries were banned for similar reasons, but are now also legal in many states.

Ranvier , (edited )

People really need to take these polls seriously, and some misunderstanding of the win probabilities really contributed to everyone's shock in 2016 and I think their disbelief in current polls.

A 70% chance based on the summation of multiple polls per five thirty eight was Hillary's chance of winning. Considering the end result was an extremely slim electoral college victory only for Trump, that's pretty reasonable. I think the problem here is just a misunderstanding of 70% probability, a lot of people thought that implies something way more sure than it actually does. That's just a slight favoring of Clinton, closer to a 50/50 chance than a sure thing. A 30% chance is like saying, I'm going to get at least three heads when flipping a coin four times. Or pretty close to getting a pair on the flop in poker. It's really not that unlikely, happens all the time.

It was the NY times upshot trying to copy five thirty eight that had some really bizarre math creating numbers way up in the high 90s of percent that clearly couldn't be right and especially didn't help with the false confidence.

It also doesn't help that those win probabilities often get mentioned in the same breath as polling numbers. 70% in a poll is an insane advantage that would translate to a basically 100% win probability, while a 70% win probability is just a slight edge. I think some people that see those numbers close together can't help but unconsciously conflate them.

Another important thing to consider is when polling errors happen, they tend to be correlated with each other, not independent. And it just so happened that the polls across multiple upper Midwest states were consistently underestimating Trump's support. Not to mention a bunch of last minute news events that took place after many of the last polls that could have moved them.

Anyways, it still would be much better to be up in battleground polls than down. We shouldn't be complacent when there's in actuality only a slight advantage, and we definitely shouldn't be complacent when we're down. These numbers should be a cause for major concern.

Ranvier ,

Lol, when this first came out I joked about them skipping ammendments they didn't like. I wasn't actually expecting them to do it. I mean no one who buys this is going to be spending any time reading the thing.

Ranvier ,

No it's pretty lengthy. Washington post does require a subscription which may be why you're not seeing it.

Here's an archived version though:

https://archive.is/B8yAE

Ranvier ,

Yes you're both correct. It was during that three month period (late January to April) after the version with border security got killed by Trump's meddling, where Republicans were trying to push a stand alone Israel aid bill without Ukraine aid, and Biden issued his veto threat to any standalone Israel aid bill. The article the person you're replying to linked was in February, after the border security version one with everything together had failed.

Ranvier ,

Turns out doctors prefer helping people, providing needed medical care, and being adaquately trained. They don't like being thrown in jail. And they want access to obstetrics procedures like abortions for themselves or their loved ones when needed.

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