A new study has come to my notice estimating the #co2footprint of #climate simulations within the 6th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6*).
It is sobering to learn that the carbon footprint of the European consortium alone was that of around 200 Germans.
While preparing for CMIP7 we need to embrace the challenge of running only necessary simulations and being clever about data storage.
Today 11th May, members of @scientifiques_en_rebellion@ScientistRebellion joined the protest against a project of a mega-pond in the Puy-De-Dôme, to denounce water grabing #NoBassaran. We urge public authorities to urgently redirect agriculture towards more water-efficient and local practices
"Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative #IPCC, foresee at least 2.5C of global heating, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit would be met.
Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck."
well, it seems 100% of #Mastodon respondents (49 accounts) predict #Earth will experience greater than 2 C heating (71% of you see more than 3 C) by 2100. You may call us pessimists. I call us, like most #IPCC scientists, realists.
Major bad #ClimateCrisis news just published in today's #Guardian - "Exclusive: Planet is headed for at least 2.5C of heating with disastrous results for #humanity poll of hundreds of scientists finds - World’s top #climate scientists expect #GlobalHeating to blast past 1.5C target.
Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the #planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.
Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( #IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met."
Numerous experts said they had been left feeling hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.
“I think we are headed for major societal disruption within the next five years,” said Gretta Pecl, at the University of Tasmania. “[Authorities] will be overwhelmed by extreme event after extreme event, food production will be disrupted. I could not feel greater despair over the future.”
Two graphs below show a shocking rise in ocean heat content. Plus, as a result of this increase, we get heartbreaking news about the death of beautiful and life-sustaining coral reefs...
As the global sea surface temperature set a new record high on Monday at 21.17C, following months of above-average temperatures, scientists are raising the alarm about a potential fourth mass coral bleaching event.
Derek Manzello of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it was likely that the entire Southern Hemisphere would experience bleaching this year.
“We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet,” the ecologist said.
These important ecosystems exist in more than 100 countries and territories and support at least 25% of marine species. They are integral to sustaining Earth’s vast and interconnected web of marine biodiversity, and are sometimes referred to as “rainforests of the sea” for their ability to act as carbon sinks by absorbing the excess carbon dioxide in the water.
Unfortunately, coral reefs are disappearing at an alarming pace.
For the first time in recorded history, the 180-day running mean for the global surface temperature just crossed 1.70°C above the pre-industrial 1850-1900 #IPCC baseline.
Scientists including the #IPCC have long warned that climate change makes wildfires escalate out of control. #ChileBurns
New study shows: “Favored by extreme weather conditions, fire activity has dramatically risen in recent years in this Andean country.”
#IPCC’s Working Group I Technical Support Unit is looking for a Data Scientist to develop the long-term curation of open-source software for use in WGI AR7.
Wow. Jag Bhalla offers one of the most sensible, thought-provoking, and wholly convincing articles I have ever read.
Title: "Climate Optimism Is Dangerous and Irrational"
Subtitle: "Overly-confident math models based on unrealistic assumptions are used to avoid crisis-consistent climate policies and to protect global elite privilege, while abandoning our duties to the planet’s most vulnerable."
It includes these section headings:
‣ The IPCC’s Official Modeling Malarkey
‣ The Worst Offenders: The Economists
I hope you can take the time to read the entire article. It's very long, extremely well-researched, and completely devastating.
This is near the conclusion...
Climate change is not just going to be “apocalyptic,” it’s already apocalyptic.
It’s just that the apocalypse is not something that happens to the entire world at once. Instead, the apocalyptic events are experienced mostly by the world’s poorest people (who, incidentally, have contributed the least to creating the problem). Who, witnessing the scale of flooding in Pakistan last year, could possibly say that the climate crisis is not “apocalyptic,” unless you regard Pakistanis as unpeople whose well-being simply doesn’t factor into the equation? 33 million people were displaced, and millions of homes destroyed.
When white Western elites publish books with titles like "It’s Not The End of The World" or "Apocalypse Never" or "False Alarm", what they mean is “it’s not the end of the world for people like me,” “apocalyptic conditions will never be experienced by my sector of society,” and “those of us who are among the world’s richest do not need to be alarmed.”
Of course, even these are false comforts — the mansions of Malibu are flammable, after all.
Climate change reports from the UN's IPCC can be fairly alarming, stern warnings about the urgent need for our society to change direction — except it turns out they are NOT as alarming as scientists wanted them to be.
Fierce negotiations between countries working to protect their financial and political interests ultimately “watered down” a landmark climate report released last week by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to a series of recent reports and investigations.
The findings highlight what activists have long warned is hampering meaningful global action to curb rising temperatures — namely, that vested interests are preventing nations from cooperating when it comes to how, exactly, they plan to reduce their emissions and fund efforts to adapt.
Climate scientist Kevin Anderson offers a blistering diatribe about the IPCC's disregard for inequality, their "colonial attitudes", and their overall timidity toward the scale of the climate crisis.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) synthesis report recently landed with an authoritative thump, giving voice to hundreds of scientists endeavouring to understand the unfolding calamity of global heating.
What’s changed since the last one in 2014? Well, we’ve dumped an additional third of a trillion tonnes of CO₂ into the atmosphere, primarily from burning fossil fuels. While world leaders promised to cut global emissions, they have presided over a 5% rise.
For over two decades, the IPCC’s work on cutting emissions (what experts call “mitigation”) has been dominated by a particular group of modellers who use huge computer models to simulate what may happen to emissions under different assumptions, primarily related to price and technology. I’ve raised concerns before about how this select cadre, almost entirely based in wealthy, high-emitting nations, has undermined the necessary scale of emission reductions.
In 2023, I can no longer tiptoe around the sensibilities of those overseeing this bias. In my view, they have been as damaging to the agenda of cutting emissions as Exxon was in misleading the public about climate science. The IPCC’s mitigation report in 2022 did include a chapter on “demand, services and social aspects” as a repository for alternative voices, but these were reduced to an inaudible whisper in the latest report’s influential summary for policymakers.
The IPCC offers many “scenarios” of future low-carbon energy systems and how we might get there from here. But with few if any exceptions, they maintain current levels of inequality between developed and developing nations, with several scenarios actually increasing the levels of inequality.