faab64 ,

Iran released the verified names of 7 "Advisors" killed by last night's Israeli attack against Iranian consulate in Damascus

Iranian sources say that Iran has informed united nations that they have the legal rights to retaliate against any legitimate Israeli targets without mentioning any geographic location.

heretical_i ,
@heretical_i@kafeneio.social avatar

"" is soooo over.👆

"Iranian sources say that Iran has informed united nations that they have the legal rights to retaliate against any legitimate Israeli targets without mentioning any geographic location."

faab64 OP ,

@heretical_i
Well Iran is 1200km from Israel. They don't have much options when it comes to surprise attacks against Israeli positions.

The dangerous reaction would be against Israel in Azerbaijan or Persian Gulf

heretical_i ,
@heretical_i@kafeneio.social avatar

@faab64 I'd like to think Iran won't fall into the same 'trap' Israel just stumbled into by attacking in a non-conflict participating nation.

Then there's this. It's fast:
Operational range: 1400 Kilometers
Maximum speed: Mach 13 – 15 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fattah-1_(missile)

faab64 OP ,

@heretical_i
It's not real. Fattah can't reach anything even close to those speeds. But even that means upto 30 minutes for Israeli air defense to prepare and shoot them down.

Azerbaijan, UAE or Bahrain are a whole different story

argumento ,
@argumento@hispagatos.space avatar

@faab64 @heretical_i

Even if Iran can reach and hit Israel directly, I don't think they'll risk a nuclear response from Israel.

Iran can keep arming and aiding its regional allies, and let them take revenge, which is a more likely response. Otherwise, they can bomb Mossad installations in Iraq or elsewhere, as they have done in the past.

Russia just posted more troops in Syria, near the Golan Heights, which can serve as deterrence from further attacks, since it's unlikely Israel will risk...

argumento ,
@argumento@hispagatos.space avatar

@faab64 @heretical_i

...hitting Russian forces. Israel and Rusia (and the former USSR) have a very long history of cooperation (Israel didn't follow the sanctions against Russia), and now Israel can't afford further isolating itself.

faab64 OP ,

@argumento
Russia doesn't even allow Syria use their S300s against Israel, or protect their allies in the war against ISIS and AlQaeda
@heretical_i

faab64 OP ,

@argumento
Russia will not do shit for Syria. Don't count on it.

They can barely manage Ukraine right now.
@heretical_i

heretical_i ,
@heretical_i@kafeneio.social avatar

@faab64 The Ukraine Hot War is over except for the 'fat lady singing'. Even US Army warwonks admit it. Covert asymmetrical warfare is the next step for them. Not so manpower taxing for Russia's military. https://www.ausa.org/publications/russo-ukrainian-war-strategic-assessment-two-years-conflict @argumento

argumento ,
@argumento@hispagatos.space avatar

@heretical_i @faab64
Attrition wars can take years, and Ukraine just reduced the recruitment age, so the conflict there can keep going for at least this whole year, if not longer.

Although I agree Ukraine is on the back foot, and won't be able to go on the offensive again.

heretical_i ,
@heretical_i@kafeneio.social avatar

@argumento Covert war... think Crocus attack. Think CIA Chechen dirty war. My understanding from msm US news reporting last year is the funding is already available via the pentagon "Black Budget". Overall goal for nato and the west is regional destabilization, anyway. 'Hot wars' are expensive to fund. Satchel bombs, etc, are cheap, and demoralizing for civilian populations. @faab64

faab64 OP ,

@heretical_i
Russia has lost almost all it's oil refineries and storage facilities in 100km range of Ukraine border.

This war will go on forever and now that NATO have given the green light to use their weapons against Russian mainland, things will go from bad to worse for Russia.

Ukraine is in a worse situation, but doesn't mean Russians are not bleeding badly
@argumento

argumento ,
@argumento@hispagatos.space avatar

@faab64 @heretical_i
Well, they did station more troops there, that might work as a deterrent. I don't think Russia would enter a war neither for Syria nor for Iran, in spite of them being close allies. Much less against Israel, that has a long story of cooperation with Russia/the Soviet Union. The USSR was among the first countries to recognize Israel, and it allowed Czechoslovakian arms shipped to Israel in 1948.

I think that Russia will keep play both sides, but try to avoid a bigger war.

heretical_i ,
@heretical_i@kafeneio.social avatar

@faab64 I just calulated it at mach 13/1200 km = 13 minutes +-. Iron Dome barely works reliably on standard missiles.

Anyway, it's all bad. Bright side is we're one step closer to Israel's suspension or ejection from the organization that allowed for it's creation.

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