Robert B. Hubbell offers (citing NBC News) a rundown of the Iowa electorate:
∙ White voters account for 97% of Iowa caucusgoers.
∙ Evangelical white Christians account for 51% of caucusgoers.
∙ 66% said they don't think President Joe Biden legitimately won in 2020.
∙ 58% of GOP caucusgoers say they'd favor a federal law banning all or most abortion.
∙ 63% of caucusgoers say they consider Trump fit for office even if he is convicted.
"The signal in the noise is this: Nikki Haley beat Trump in one county—Johnson County. What’s in Johnson County? Answer: The University of Iowa. So, too, with Story County, home to Iowa State University, where Trump won by only 4 percentage points (34% for Trump vs. 30% for Haley).
What’s the lesson? In Iowa counties with younger, more educated voters, Trump loses or barely wins among die-hard Republicans."
@TCatInReality I suspect that those characteristics do often align, though. The Iowa findings point us to something that's true in the wider electorate — that people with more education are trending away from the Republican party, and that this is happening above all among younger voters.
@wdlindsy they are not a true random sample, though, but a self selecting one, and represent perhaps 5% of total Iowa voters. But that is the most positive take-away I can offer...
@gnutelephony I agree. And this raises the question of why the media slaver over and devote huge amounts of energy and attention to the Iowa caucus. I suspect this is more than just following a newsworthy story, but is all about holding a spotlight to those "real" American voters who always turn out to be white, evangelical or conservative Christian, rural, and less than optimally educated.
Sad group of people actually. Love to tell others what to do.
I know there are lots of things they don't know, but it seems to me that the SCOTUS ruling over turning Roe makes it difficult if not impossible for the FedGov to actually ban abortion. They said it was too important to not be decided by the states.
@MylesRyden Careful what you wish for, indeed. The story of King Pyrrhus of Epirus has engraved that insight in our consciousness, such that we now talk about some victories that are pyrrhic ones.
Indeed, I thought that as soon as the decision was announced (although I am no legal scholar and can't claim to truly understand it). Consistently people favor more progressive policies than they do progressive politicians.
As we have seen, the ruling leaves open the probability that people will vote in favor of reproductive rights when such a choice is offered on its own. The GOP may get women's votes by screaming "Crime! Crime! Crime!" but that does not stop them for voting for a single policy that will protect/benefit them.
@MylesRyden Yes. From the outset, the movement to outlaw abortion was coercive, repressive, aimed quite particularly at controlling women and curbing their rights. As good commentators are noting now, given that this is not the path the nation as a whole wants to take, the anti-abortion policies can be implemented only by autocratic rule that tramples on democratic processes.