Brandon Sanderson's theory on why the film industry is floundering (YouTube Short) ( www.youtube.com )

Edit: Here's the exact same clip on the standard YouTube Watch page.

courtesy of zagorath

Brandon Sanderson the fantasy author

For those uninterested in watching a youtube short (sorry), the theory is pretty simple:

COVID and the death of theatres broke the film industry's controlled, simple and effective marketing pipeline (watch movie in theatres -> watch trailer before hand -> watch that tailer's movie in theatres ...) and so now films have the same problems books have always had which is that of finding a way to break through in a saturated market, grab people's attention and find an audience. Not being experienced with this, the film industry is floundering.

In just this clip he doesn't mention streaming and TV (perhaps he does in the full podcast), but that basically contributes to the same dynamic of saturation and noise.

Do note that Sanderson openly admits its a mostly unfounded theory.

For me personally, I'm not sure how effective the theatrical trailers have been in governing my movie watching choices for a long time. Certainly there was a time that they did. But since trailers went online (anyone remember Apple Trailers!?) it's been through YouTube and online spaces like this.

Perhaps that's relatively uncommon?
Or perhaps COVID was just the straw that broke the camel's back?
Or maybe there's a generational factor where now, compared to 10 years ago, the post X-Gen and "more online" demographic is relatively decisive of TV/Film sales?

kandoh ,

There's just a lot of competition for your attention these days.

I can't even remember the last time I felt boredom. The sort of boredom that motivates you to just go out and look for something to do.

There is so much in fact, that I've started putting artificial constraints on things that hold my attention. Phone apps lock after 60 minutes of use, only one episode of a tv series per-day, etc.

I love watching movies at the theatre, but it's got a lot going against it. It's expensive, it's full of other people, occasionally the movies suck, and traveling there and back is a pain since we stopped investing in transportation infrastructure.

NuXCOM_90Percent ,

I mean... yeah.

We've seen this exact pattern happen in other industries. Bookstores were largely massacred by amazon et al. Which meant that the major publishers no longer controlled what we could buy (at a reasonable price). So rather than stand in an aisle and skim the Warhammer 40k books or see what had a cool cover, we read online reviews and even started reading (gasp) self-published books... in large part because other aspects of technological advance meant those self-published books could still be professionally edited.

And... that was awesome because it meant we got a constant feed of new voices rather than just the people who had enough connections to get a publisher's "slot".

And while there is very much something to be said about a nice crisp hardcover (just look at how ride or die I am on Michael Sullivan's kickstarters...), the vast majority of my books are ebooks that I read on my (as of late) onyx boox. Which is basically the hardcover and mass market paperback model of olde.

And we saw the exact same happen with PC gaming. I don't know the exact steps that led to it (and now realize I really want to) but in the late 00s/early 10s we rapidly noticed our stores that had became aisles were rapidly becoming single shelves on a rack that was mostly the latest Warcraft expansion.

And at first that sucked. I remember rushing to Gamestop the day that KOTOR 2 released only to have to basically fight the goblin at the counter to get the one copy they had and the number of times I had to explain that I did not want Halo instead. But, once we no longer had the ability to browse in stores, we saw various digital distribution platforms rise up and we started to have games like Warlock that shockingly launched at 30 USD instead of 50. And, much like above, we started to see a lot of new voices in a way that was reminiscent of the golden age of the 486 where you might buy access to an FTP server on a BBS because you liked a game that dev/studio had put on one of the 101 game CDs.

And we are seeing the same with film. COVID took away theatres. So a lot of people either started focusing on tv/netflix for a more convenient version of the big budget stuff. Or they went basically "indie" which led to the massive youtube/twitch boom. Or they realized that they could get "good enough" with a medium sized TV, some blackout curtains, and a soundbar (or a 5.1 setup if you are fancy). It wasn't quite as good as a movie theatre but you also had fewer people screaming along with the movie or ordering grubhub in front of you.

Which is why I very much think that movie theatres as we know them are going to be gone before 2028 (maybe even 2026). And it will be replaced with a very limited selection of "alamo drafthouse" level theatres that people rent for events and watch parties. Instead of "Hollywood" deciding that everyone wants to watch Mission Impossible 20 in theatres, it will be enthusiasts deciding they want to buy screen time to show the new Sailor Moon OVA and either selling tickets on their own or crowdfunding it.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Good insight there with the gaming industry, hadn’t thought of that (as I haven’t been a gamer for a while).

In the end though, this buttresses Sander’s point I think, which is that having the theatres protected their industry for longer. The theatre isn’t just the shop or shelf but the whole product, experience and marketing activity rolled into one.

JimSamtanko ,

I’ll add the overwhelming amount of canned and processed Star Wars and Marvell slop that’s been pushed on us.

CitizenKong ,

That's just a symptom. We'd get other slop if it wasn't for Star Wars and Marvel. Hollywood only knows how to make mega-expensive movies anymore, that are watered down and derivative because they have to cater to the biggest possible audience to recoup investment. Unfortunately, audiences also have a lot more content to choose from, for less money.

JimSamtanko ,

Fair point and well said. I really wish they would consider those of us that want actual content. Less expensive movies that are more character driven.

CitizenKong ,

I mean, TV series have pretty much become that. I just wish there were more mini-series that are self-contained instead of promising stories fizzling out by season 5 or getting canceled prematurely.

Poop ,

Movies are too long for one sitting and I find they condense the story to the point it is skimming the surface. TV shows and miniseries are able to flesh out worlds and characters over hours, not minutes. They just need to write the stories beforehand so the season creep doesn't start. Make a sequel if you need to do more seasons or tell a different story in the same universe.

jordanlund ,
@jordanlund@lemmy.world avatar

I'd add... there USED TO BE... multiple movie review TV shows that reviewed movies BEFORE THEY CAME OUT(!) I know, shock, right?

Siskel and Ebert really invented the format with "Sneak Previews" / "At the Movies" and I remember watching it on Sunday nights to see what would be coming out the following Friday.

Then they left to have their own show,
the old "Sneak Previews" show was taken over by Jeffrey Lyons and Michael Medved, and "At the Movies" was run by Rex Reed and Bill Harris.

So, at one point, we had THREE movie review shows running simultaneously with 6 different, competing opinions.

And, like I say, these were all reviews of UPCOMING movies.

We don't have that anymore.

  1. Studios aren't allowing early reviews, they embargo the reviews until launch day.

  2. There are tons, and tons of online review sites, but they don't have any special access, and can't see the films until everyone else does, which is too late to build any hype.

JimSamtanko ,

Well said. And what a nostalgic trip. Thanks.

Deebster ,
@Deebster@programming.dev avatar

curtesy of zagorath

fyi, you mean courtesy - curtesy is an old legal term.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Cheers.

You know that’s an interesting one. As a speaker/writer of “Queens English”, I sometimes find myself reaching for the US spelling online just not to fit in (eg color) … and I think that kinda happened here, and I honestly didn’t know curtesy wasn’t the US spelling (not that I have any hard precedent to cite).

Deebster ,
@Deebster@programming.dev avatar

I guess it's the King's English now. I'm always careful to avoid spelling things the US way, because as a programmer there's some things (yup, like color) that I type more often in the US version than international English and muscle memory's a sticky bugger.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

I guess it’s the King’s English now.

I’ll probably say “Queen’s” until the day I die. Liz has probably earned that much.

Zagorath ,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

I think the change in business model from theatre-exclusive for a long period of time to direct-to-streaming or fast-tracked streaming is related, which IIRC he/Dan mentioned in the full podcast. But I don't think this theory about trailers is correct. I've never known someone to get excited for a movie based on seeing the trailer before another movie. They find out in the news or on social media, and see the trailer on YouTube.

Streaming is just not as profitable as theatres, but it's a much more convenient way for people to watch. I've seen some people make suggestions on how to make the theatregoing experience better to entice people to go, but the biggest thing IMO is just the fact that it's on streaming early at all. From a personal perspective, I hope they don't do this, but I do think it would benefit movies' profitability to lock in much longer theatre-exclusive periods.

But also, less crappy studio-run films pls? Almost nothing Disney is putting out these days is worth seeing, because it's all lame remakes and sequels. We need studios to be brave and just trust good filmmakers to make good films, not constantly try to chase industry trends.

Reverendender ,
@Reverendender@sh.itjust.works avatar

Before YouTube and social media, and for quite a few years after their advent, theater trailers were THE way to get a glimpse at an upcoming movie, and usually the ONLY way.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Yea I agree. Like I said in the OP text, there may have been a long drawn out transition that is only hitting hard enough now, especially because of age demographics. If true, you’d expect that we’ve reached the point where the internet generations (millennial and younger) are the majority of the potential cinema going audience.

Which feels right.

It seems to me that 90s kid millennials and their young children are the current “mainstream”. And boomers have just shifted out of dominance in the past 5 years or so. The pandemic may have masked this shift TBH and we may have been talking about it more if it weren’t for the pandemic.

Zagorath ,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

It seems to me that 90s kid millennials and their young children are the current “mainstream”. And boomers have just shifted out of dominance in the past 5 years or so

Once again, poor Gen Xers get ignored.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Ha. Yea. Having a boomer generation does these sorts of things. Like both X and Y (millennial) gens have also transitioned sharply from being young (and “stupid”) to now actually old and ridiculed by younger gens. The dominance of the boomers gen in size allowed their perspective over X and Y to culturally persist.

Zagorath ,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

Yeah but at least we (millennials) exist in popular culture and the public discourse. You never even hear about gen X unless it's someone pointing out how you never hear about them.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Or you sometimes hear about shitty they apparently are as people. Truly left behind.

Zagorath ,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

Perhaps, but that would still mean Sanderson is wrong here in attributing the blame to straight-to-streaming, when it’s actually due to the rise of social media. Which has meant that for my age group (young millennials, going through teenage years through the mid-to-late ’00s to early ’10s) it’s been true the whole time we’ve been paying our own way to the movies.

Zagorath ,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

Perhaps, but that would still mean Sanderson is wrong here in attributing the blame to straight-to-streaming, when it's actually due to the rise of social media. Which has meant that for my age group (young millennials, going through teenage years through the mid-to-late ’00s to early ’10s) it's been true the whole time we've been paying our own way to the movies.

Zagorath ,
@Zagorath@aussie.zone avatar

Here's the exact same clip on the standard YouTube Watch page. (Just change the /shorts/ to /watch?v=, or use the YouTube-shorts block extension to do that automatically.)

Subtracty ,

I definitely think the cycle has been broken. I'm less likely to see a movie in theatres (expensive) and so I don't see trailers on the big screen. Watching a trailer at home makes me question: Is this worth going to see on a big screen, or can I enjoy it on my TV all the same? And if I decide thatI can wait until I can get it at home I forget all about the movie until it appears on streaming or a am reminded of it and seek it out on the high seas.
I think covid broke the camels back, as you mentioned. Our generation has been more decisive about movies/tv because their are so many options. With so many great things vying for my attention, I appreciate the ability to just turn something off if it doesn't suit my taste.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

With so many great things vying for my attention, I appreciate the ability to just turn something off if it doesn’t suit my taste.

Which is sanderson’s point I think. This is what books have been like for a long time. Film industry probably just needs to adapt.

cmbabul ,

I don’t disagree with him on the point that the old model has been broken but I think it’s more complex. I think it was Matt Damon that said steaming has hurt the creative side of the industry because dvd sales can’t make the budget back for risky project anymore. That’s not the full issue either though. Theater experience has been going down and there’s a billion other ways to get entertainment in a social way now. This all leads to studios desperate to keep the spice flowing to only back what they believe are sure returns on investment while simultaneously trying to cut costs by reducing or at least limiting the compensation to creatives. There aren’t as many risks getting taken and producers are reclaiming the power that had long been surrendered to directors and writers.

We’re almost back to the old studio system, if we ain’t already there

Donkter ,

I think it's always been a fight by producers to reign in the power. Right now there's a huge shakeup to the industry and almost no one has figured it out so the industry falls back on "safe" money tied up in producers and companies. If anything this shift should be better for independent creators as the Internet allows for more of a democratization of resources so it will probably swing back.

Also, I think this is probably a classic problem of confirmation bias, cause we have plenty of studios producing cheaper movies, A24 comes to mind. A lot of great directors and writers are taking risks on high-budget streaming series, people like Apple, Amazon, and HBO are throwing wads of cash at 1/2 season flops that are cool ideas, some of which hit big.

On top of that, we look back with rose-tinted glasses at the "glory days" of film when directors had more power than studios etc, but I would bet a lot that pound for pound the industry wasn't nearly as proportionately experimental as it is today. Maybe we're in a lull compared to recent years (maybe) but overall the trajectory is pretty steadily upwards.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Another factor I’ve heard is that investment types and thinking have taken root in the film industry and established a baseline gross profit margin as an expectation compared to the past that was more happy to break even.

It makes sense because it’s also the story of the times I suspect, and there’s likely a lesson to be learnt that how we useful market dynamics can be some aspects of civilised life may be best left effectively non-profit.

cmbabul ,

It wouldn’t surprise me at all, that thinking has infected everything.

maegul OP Mod ,
@maegul@lemmy.ml avatar

Yea. A basic heuristic I picked up a while ago was “was this better before the accountants got involved”. I got it from someone telling me their profession was clearly better before accountants ruined it.

zipzoopaboop ,

The fact that there's barely any movies worth watching anymore is a real problem for theatres. There's 2 movies this year that I might watch

Cethin ,

The most recent one I watched was Dune part 2. Before that it was Dune part 1. I have almost zero desire to see what's being put in theaters over the last decade or so. It's almost all the same crap.

zipzoopaboop ,

I'm in the fence about furiosa and Deadpool 3. Last theatre movie I really enjoyed was everything everywhere all at once

jlow ,
@jlow@beehaw.org avatar

Yeah, Everything is sooo good.

keyez ,

A24 keeps releasing movies just like EEAAO, just suffering from this problem where you may not be hearing of them or seeing the trailers. I have an Alamo Drafthouse near me and have seen 9 movies in theaters this year, including rereleases and only 1 I haven't enjoyed, dune was the only "remake" or adaptation.

reddig33 ,

Theater death will only get worse as studios are now allowed to own the theaters.

The additional problem is that studios are allowed to own streaming channels. So instead of content being sold to the highest bidder on an open market, it’s rushed out of the theater and onto the streaming channel where the studio makes the $$. And if it isn’t an initial successful property, no one else is allowed to buy it or show it.

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