jordanlund Mod , 3 months ago "National head to head polls" Which is meaningless since our elections ARE NOT "National". States like Washington, Oregon, and California are going to Biden. Full stop. States like Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana are going to Trump, full stop. So the ONLY polling that's worth following is in the states which may be questionable and, frankly, there aren't a lot of them. Arizona - Trump +7 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/ Georgia - Trump +6 to +7 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/ Michigan - Tied to Trump +3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/ Nevada - Trump +6 to +10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/ New Mexico - Biden +8 but from August, not useful. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/ North Carolina - Trump +9 to +10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/ Pennsylvania - Biden +1 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/ (this one has been flipping back and forth) Virginia - Biden +4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/ Wisconsin - Trump +3 to +4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/ Here's what that looks like on a map: 293 to 245 Trump. https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/c11a8f30-a4ad-4f0f-9eca-ffc9cff42252.jpeg Biden CANNOT win without Michigan and Wisconsin, two states that Clinton infamously neglected to campaign in and lost. Getting them, with this equation, puts Biden EXACTLY at 270.
"National head to head polls"
Which is meaningless since our elections ARE NOT "National".
States like Washington, Oregon, and California are going to Biden. Full stop.
States like Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana are going to Trump, full stop.
So the ONLY polling that's worth following is in the states which may be questionable and, frankly, there aren't a lot of them.
Arizona - Trump +7 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia - Trump +6 to +7 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan - Tied to Trump +3 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Nevada - Trump +6 to +10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico - Biden +8 but from August, not useful. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
North Carolina - Trump +9 to +10 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/
Pennsylvania - Biden +1 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
(this one has been flipping back and forth)
Virginia - Biden +4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Wisconsin - Trump +3 to +4 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Here's what that looks like on a map:
293 to 245 Trump.
https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/c11a8f30-a4ad-4f0f-9eca-ffc9cff42252.jpeg
Biden CANNOT win without Michigan and Wisconsin, two states that Clinton infamously neglected to campaign in and lost. Getting them, with this equation, puts Biden EXACTLY at 270.