@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

GhostOnTheHalfShell

@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai

opinionated lurker of the intarwebs.

Used to write code, still do. c/c++, java, php, js, c#, gdscript, gnawed on sql, sparql, unix/windows etc etc billions of years ago.

tech, graphics, anything STEM
anything anthropology, history, linguistics
anything blender, gimp (although i scream using it), audacity
prefers not to be run over by cars

I drink Philz.

I do a (non-monetized) video or so a week on yt.

Tyranny and poverty are everywhere a mainstream economics phenomenon.

This profile is from a federated server and may be incomplete. For a complete list of posts, browse on the original instance.

GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

May 13

#SteveKeen
#SteveKeenAndFriends

5 min video

Mean tweets clips with my cheesy annotations.

https://youtu.be/XMIPgm2cpMA

GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

#mmt #SteveKeen

The remarkable aspect of mainstream economists is their persistence treating the values in ledger entries as actual instances of bank notes (physical paper) as their mental model, then selectively dropping the model.

And they refuse to submit to accounting rules.

https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/why-you-cant-win-an-argument-with

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

This is peeled away when Keen picks apart how a money multiplier would even work. It only applies if banks lent actual banknotes.

In short, their reasoning insists a virtual chair has the same characteristics of a physical chair, although I can think they actually engage in double think with money multiplier, at least I think so with this definition supplied by wiki: 🧵

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

"In monetary economics, the money multiplier is the ratio of the money supply to the monetary base (i.e. central bank money). If the money multiplier is stable, it implies that the central bank can control the money supply by determining the monetary base."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_multiplier

If the multiplier is stable… more sand castles in the sky, I mean simplifying assumptions

🧵

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

Economists build castles in the air. Public policy lives in them. Banks collect the rent.

Or something like that.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

Seriously, stable? The money supply meant here is credit not banknotes. See GFC.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

#SteveKeen

"The Neoclassical (and Austrian) economics vision of free market capitalism is one of an anarchist utopia. When free of non-market distortions—government intervention, unions and externalities—and bereft of monopolies, the Neoclassical model of capitalism achieve “Pareto Optimality”: a point at which no-one can be made better off without making someone else worse off. "

Of course, we've never seen anyone make others worse off for their own benefit.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

Of course, we've never seen anyone make others worse off for their own benefit.

And the alpha male anarcho-capitalist, Peter "technology is an alternative to politics" Thiel, rejects competition and democracy and instead seeks monopoly and his tyrannical rule.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

It works if banks transferred their lent money as actual banknotes.

Since the asset and deposit are generated as a pair, I tend to want to say, it;'s true that "loans" create deposits but only in the sense that a loan-as-the-bank-asset, the liability+asset of the deposit of bank and borrower, and the borrower's liability all add up to zero.

All of it is a coin, there are no heads or tails "first".

🧵

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

The act "loan" creates an accounting entity.

Now put on the hardest nastiest most pickiest math-definition hat you have. Because my weak ass undergrad mind says, nomenclature is sloppy as fuck.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_multiplier#Table

Plus.. em tell me again in case my brain is rotted but multiplier suggest the coef > 1 but that's not what comes out.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

If you have a login at internet archive -- read the few pages before page 94.

The equations governing why banks want deposits. They don't lend from deposits, but deposits do govern their balance sheets. The larger share of total deposits a bank has, the lower the probability value is transferred out of its ledgers. The ability to lend grows infinitely as market share approaches 100%.

Infinite lending at 1 bank.

https://archive.org/details/monetarytheoryof0000graz/page/94/mode/2up

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

Steve's earlier remarks on the multiplier effect. See if his work looks solid here:

https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/using-system-dynamics-with-minsky

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works There's one aspect that bugs me. Graziani's eq p 94 has denominator terms of (1-bank_deposit_market_share) governing lending capacity. This approaches infinity at 1 bank. Amount deposited is < liability of borrower and greater than bank lent and its asset. This says to my trailer trash math assets and deposits grow infinitely..!

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

exactly, but, their asset L = P + I (principal lent + interest paid).

The bank “deposits” P, gains L while borrower get P and is liable for L. Over the lifetime of the loan, the bank now “owns” L worth of money.

Without an external source (aka the debt and deficit) bank owns all money. Because lending is ongoing though, it probably means upward spiral in bank money. Until the economy has a downturn and lending is disrupted.

GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@dlakelan @economics-that-works

But here’s a thought. What is the behavior and system dynamic of 2-5 banks? The bulk of transactions are internal to each and collusion chances are high, especially if stock owners own shares in each (like Vanguard does of grocery, Albertsons and Kroger).

Here, I’d like to see modeling that could run different kinds of collusion scenarios under in goid and bad times (like a supply chain disruption).

breadandcircuses , to random
@breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social avatar

The bad news is — our oceans are heating up very fast.

The even worse news is — climate scientists can't explain why.

The world's oceans are like a planet-sized battery: they absorb huge amounts of heat, which is then released slowly. So far, the oceans have soaked up over 90% of the heat trapped in the Earth's atmosphere by rising greenhouse gas emissions. But recently, the rate of warming has been dramatic.

By February 2024, the world had breached 1.5C warming of surface air temperatures for a full year. But in some regions last year, ocean temperatures were similar to those expected if overall global warming of surface air temperatures reached 3C above pre-industrial levels – suggesting quicker ocean heating than expected.

This rapid heating raises a puzzle for scientists: why is recent ocean warming even greater than models suggest?

"The step-change in ocean temperatures over last year is huge," says Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University in the UK. "The fact we can't simulate these step-change increases and understand why it's happening is terrifying."

What is clear, however, is that ocean warming is already having damaging effects on people and ecosystems alike. Coral reefs are currently undergoing their fourth planet-wide bleaching event, set to be the most extensive yet.

Other impacts are less talked about: from de-oxygenation of the deep seas, to more intense rain in the skies above. All indicate that record ocean temperatures are destabilising the planet.

FULL STORY -- https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240508-how-record-ocean-warming-is-destabilising-weather-and-climate

#Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@breadandcircuses

AMOC looks like it’s heading to a shutdown. That will break bread baskets in both sides of the Atlantic.

I hate to say it, but it’s a foot race between the global economy unraveling on disruptions like that and co2 emissions collapsing and that taking the “animal spirit” out of warming and catastrophic collapse wiping it all away in a decade or two as ecologies falter and collapse.

GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

#ThomHartmann #RichardWolff
#mmt

9 min

5 year old video Dr. Wolff summarizes MMT in a slightly different way, nicely explaining in concrete terms how the gov could retire its own debt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUusyHRBRuA

GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

#JustHaveAThink
#climatechange
#SteveKeen

12 min

Risk assessment needs a revamp.

https://youtu.be/8A8YIc6Ru6g

Tim Lenton and Steve collaborated on another report for which those with pensions or those who have those with pensions can press their funds to respond to. It's their fiduciary responsibility to accurately assess risk

https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/loading-the-dice-against-pension

pluralistic , to random
@pluralistic@mamot.fr avatar

Pining for the fjords

GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@pluralistic

Wait, your feet are nailed to a cage perch?

GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

#SteveKeen
#SabineHossenfelder

Steve’s macro from macro derivations are solid (because mainstream theory of macro from micro is equivalent to saying tennis is just atomic electrostatic interactions)

but still, there’s a different kind of place small scale could effect macro, if they exist

https://youtu.be/lt7a3wjf3qY

randahl , to random
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

I promise, this is not a joke.

As part of his inauguration, president Putin has published a report presenting his goals for Russia in his coming 6-year term.

In this report — and this is golden — Putin expects to raise the life expectancy of Russians from 73 to 78 years… while his soldiers are being killed faster than the printer ink can dry.

This man is completely detached from reality.

(Via Claus Mathiesen of The Royal Danish Defence College)

GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@randahl He’s old. It’s about him. 😅

GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@economics-that-works

#SteveKeen #SteveKeenAndFriends

Streams tomorrow @9 am PST, be there or be square.

https://www.youtube.com/live/j1Ql3AgXwMg

breadandcircuses , to random
@breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social avatar

Mexico is suffering from a massive heat wave, covering virtually the whole country.

According to the "Extreme Temperatures" account, Mexico yesterday experienced the hottest day in May in North American history.
🔥 https://toot.community/@extretemps/112418721980050581

A headline at Time tells us: "Mexico Is Fighting Over 100 Active Wildfires Amid a Heat Wave"
🔥 https://time.com/6976775/mexico-wildfires-heatwave/

And according to Reuters: "Mexico Heat Wave Triggers Exceptional Power Outages, President says"
🔥 https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-heat-wave-triggers-exceptional-power-outages-president-says-2024-05-08/

#Mexico #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis

GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@breadandcircuses

Soon after Texas clears away the flood damage, Summer will be kicking in. Tornado alley has moved East towards Louisiana, Alabama and Florida. And as La Niña emerges, the hurricane season is going to be over the top.

ElleGray , to random
@ElleGray@mstdn.social avatar

Wow he's going to be tired but good for him

GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
@GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

@ElleGray

uh uh un uh

molly0xfff , to random
@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io avatar

"In 2024, for the first time, it finally feels like we have a critical mass of people and platforms who are interested in rewilding the internet to bring back what we lost, and create something new. ... There's a palpable feeling that this just might be the year of the open web."

is this feeling... hope? https://activitypub.ghost.org/day-0/

At various points we revisited our old idea for networked publishing in Ghost and tested a few prototypes, but we were never sure how to make it scale; nor how many other platforms would ultimately adopt it. For all its promise, ActivityPub (like many open standards) seemed to generate products with user experiences that were often confusing and convoluted. But something else happened in the intervening period between 2016 and 2024: People became increasingly fed up with the behavior of centralized platforms, and increasingly hungry for alternatives. The motivation for exploring and understanding new technologies, rough edges included, meaningfully increased. In 2024, for the first time, it finally feels like we have a critical mass of people and platforms who are interested in rewilding the internet to bring back what we lost, and create something new. In the past week alone, we've had conversations with Mastodon, Flipboard, The Verge, Buttondown, WriteFreely, and several co-authors of the ActivityPub spec. There's a palpable feeling that this just might be the year of [begin strikethrough] the linux desktop [end strikethrough] the open web.
ALT
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    • + mastodonmigration, Npars01, pluralistic
    GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @molly0xfff

    Question: if W3C governs ActivityPub, can they wreck it?

    GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @economics-that-works

    Das Geld Syndrom in a nutshell. There’s a reason why every major religion sanctions usury. It is wealth transfer from labor through business to creditors.

    It’s money “destruction” in the sense of purchasing power destruction, the essence of inflation or debasing the currency. It has a lethal consequence of concentrating power.

    The one measure that circumvents this decay is demurrage. Gesell formalized it in the concept of Freigeld.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/Ei07MySGKwk

    GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @economics-that-works

    #climatechange #degrowth 😑 #economics

    This is the face of degrowth by means of climate inaction. Degrowth is not a future, it’s already underway.

    https://youtu.be/-wYOkjVtBY4

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @largess @economics-that-works

    i think option b is in play.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @CassandraVert @largess @economics-that-works

    Look to who is running Xitter.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @economics-that-works

    So if a free market works to optimize stuff by maximizing efficiency, and people are perfectly clairvoyant utility maximizing beings people would have gone vegan in order to maximize agricultural output, defined as max caloric return for humans.

    But instead the lion’s share of output goes to maximizing calories for cows, pigs and chickens. Despite the fact they can convert non edible (for people) organic matter into human calories.

    breadandcircuses , to random
    @breadandcircuses@climatejustice.social avatar

    How bad is the threat posed by climate change and ecological collapse?

    It’s much worse than politicians or corporate media pundits will admit…

    The climate emergency is already here. Even just 1C of heating has supercharged the planet’s extreme weather, delivering searing heatwaves from the US to Europe to China that would have been otherwise impossible. Millions of people have very likely died early as a result already. At just 2C, the brutal heatwave that struck the Pacific Northwest of America in 2021 will be 100-200 times more likely.

    A grave concern is climate tipping points, where a tiny temperature increase tips crucial parts of the climate system into collapse, such as the Greenland ice sheet, the Amazon rainforest, and key Atlantic currents. “Most people do not realise how big these risks are,” said Wolfgang Cramer, at the Mediterranean Institute of Biodiversity and Ecology.

    “I am scared mightily – I don’t see how we are able to get out of this mess,” said Tim Benton, an expert on food security and food systems at the Chatham House thinktank. He said the cost of protecting people and recovering from climate disasters will be huge, with yet more discord and delay over who pays the bills. Numerous experts were worried over food production: “We’ve barely started to see the impacts,” said one.

    “It is the biggest threat humanity has faced, with the potential to wreck our social fabric and way of life. It has the potential to kill millions, if not billions, through starvation, war over resources, displacement,” said James Renwick, at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. “None of us will be unaffected by the devastation.”

    FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair

    #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

    GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @breadandcircuses

    PBS Terra documenting how climate change invalidates our historical measures of flood risk. We are flying blind or at least playing catch up in risk management integrating the effects of a warmer atmosphere. For the effected areas, “100” year floods frequency has increased to 35 years and for the worst effected 8 years. Moreover, large scale maps of risk (ie by state) mask the true risk. This risk change is global.

    13 min

    https://youtu.be/pDIpbXjCtyg

    GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @breadandcircuses

    One point of succor I see is that modernity itself, as a creature of a mild stable climate, will unravel as indicated. Local regions must secure their own self sufficiency in food, water, shelter and energy and prioritize the first three. This priority supersedes every other economic concern.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @breadandcircuses

    Even in the midst of the US housing crisis and parallel to it, solutions come locally.

    cities are changing their zoning laws, but one more magic ingredient is needed to service demand: financing. Banks will never make small scale loans because they can’t profit from it. Cities can provide that service. Ecological restoration and urban greening, permaculture are all means to create resilience in this new world.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell , to economics-that-works group
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @economics-that-works

    File this under the heading economics is not even a dismal science, because mainstream economics isn’t even science. Economics could actually be a rigorous discipline, if orthodoxy can be kicked out.

    “ In contrast to its attitude to private debt, which it ignores, mainstream economics obsesses about government debt. But this volte-face doesn't besmirch its record of being 100% wrong.”

    https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/its-a-mixed-credit-fiat-world-e3f

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @economics-that-works

    "The analysis in this chapter is entirely derived from accounting identities, and it is also completely consistent with the analysis of "Modern Monetary Theory" as laid out by Stephanie Kelton in The Deficit Myth (Kelton 2020). What this chapter adds to MMT is firstly a proof that MMT's analysis of government money creation is derived from a correct application of the rules of accounting, and is therefore better called "Modern Monetary Fact" as a result. "
    🧵

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @economics-that-works

    "Secondly it enables an integrated analysis of both fiat and credit money creation, which the MMT movement itself has not as yet provided, while mainstream Neoclassical economics ignores credit completely."

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @mike805 @economics-that-works

    It goes beyond that and doesn’t need game simulation (although it’s a great teaching tool).

    #SteveKeen has modeled macro from accounting identities which follow closely empirical economic behavior and has debunked mainstreamers for 50 years (as others have).

    The mainstream’s refusal has as much to do with an the established thinkers refusing to budge as it does the immense ideological interests of wealth that uses them to legitimize their dominance.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @mike805 @economics-that-works

    In other words, it take more than proof, which has been on offer for decades, but social mobilization to cast out the mainstream. This is why Keen seeks to rally academics from a broad range of fields to subject economists to academic review, especially on climate.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @mike805 @economics-that-works

    Applied MMT does forward market casting using MMT and machine learning.

    https://www.youtube.com/@MMTMacroTrader

    Accepting proof is not a given.

    "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it ..."

    Non Orthodox economists have contended with this for a half century and longer.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planck%27s_principle

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @msbellows @economics-that-works

    I can try, but you'll have to specify what about Keynes is correct or not.

    The reason I ask is MMT authors like Graziani, picks out parts of Keynes that hold water and other parts that do not.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @msbellows @economics-that-works

    Ah yes. OK.

    Keynes was wrong in the sense that government deficits are private deposits. Keynes was operating in a different monetary world in the sense that the gold standard applied.

    So there should be no surplus (because government is deleting the credit potential of the economy; taxes deletes fiat currency)

    That said, spending when the economy is bad is creating credit.

    🧵

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @msbellows @economics-that-works

    It's only off in the act of generating a surplus will cause a crisis.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @mike805 @economics-that-works

    Applied MMT or at least Doug doesn't operate that way. It'd tell you how to position in the market wrt to the economic cycle and it only forecasts a few months out.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @dlakelan @msbellows @economics-that-works

    If I understand correctly, MMT and Keen by his math, would say that reducing the deficit removes money (credit) from the system, not a good thing if commerce is fading.*

    Here, raising interest could be an option, but I'd say helicopter money into people's pockets.

    • note here I do not think growth should be necessary, because Bractaete system doesn't need, but we don't have it and monetary system needs interest and inflation to "work".
    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @dlakelan @msbellows @economics-that-works

    The first thing to know is where inflation is coming from. Why is business failing to meet demand, or why is demand so?

    Profiteering has driven the last few years of inflation, under the cloak of supply chain disruptions.

    GhostOnTheHalfShell OP ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @dlakelan @msbellows @economics-that-works

    First ask why is active low?

    pluralistic , to random
    @pluralistic@mamot.fr avatar

    Today's threads (a thread)

    Inside: The disenshittified internet starts with loyal "user agents"; and more!

    Archived at: https://pluralistic.net/2024/05/07/treacherous-computing/

    #Pluralistic

    1/

    GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @pluralistic

    If the W3C is compromised, what do we resort to for internet standards? The only option left is to boycott bad decisions, tricky with large “technology is the alternative to politics” whales in control of the medium.

    pluralistic , to random
    @pluralistic@mamot.fr avatar

    Well that's a hell of a chart

    https://www.ft.com/content/dc47c5f3-9bd4-4da0-a5cb-c795efd14c9c?accessToken=zwAGF77R-34okdPcR8Xzm9RNoNOly8eV79FMnA.MEUCIQDlzK8iKXqo2IyOBx3R95kEVglrA1-3Z4mV7SAgvpY71AIgFYrY0LX0A5YB_Wsm5EFBv08XfD1H5letjmzX-ZO_lw8&sharetype=gift&token=959a5d69-00b3-4117-b2cd-5231e1dccc9c

    via @jjn1

    https://memex.naughtons.org/monday-6-may-2024/39413/

    GhostOnTheHalfShell ,
    @GhostOnTheHalfShell@masto.ai avatar

    @pluralistic @jjn1

    In the “you are here p” catagory

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