jackofalltrades , 
I opened the first IPCC report, released in 1990, and copied their scenario graph for CO2 emissions.
I marked the latest data with a red dot. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 were 40.7 GtCO2 (= 11.09 GtC).
Whatever you think about the IPCC you must admit their business-as-usual calculations were pretty robust.
Edit: previous version of this post also talked about methane, but here story is not as clear, see down below: https://mas.to/@jackofalltrades/111731258956894444