The frequency & magnitude of extreme #wildfires has DOUBLED in the last 20 yrs due to #ClimateChange, acc/to a study released Mon.
The analysis focused on massive blazes that release vast amts of energy from the organic matter burned. Researchers pointed to the #Australia#fires of 2019 & 2020 as blazes that were “unprecedented in their scale & intensity.”
The 6 most extreme fire years have occurred SINCE 2017, the study found.
“It’s absolutely in keeping w/what #ClimateChange is doing to fire #weather around the world. #ClimateChange is making fire weather more extreme & more frequent….”said lead author Calum Cunningham….
…The new study found extreme #wildfire events have increased 2.2-fold since 2003. Extreme #wildfires have severe #ecological & societal impacts, leading to deaths & #biomass loss while emitting high levels of #carbon.
Acc/to the study, burn severity, which is a measure of these impacts, has increased in more regions than it has decreased.
Cunningham said the research began as a response to #climate skeptics who challenged whether there is a growing fire crisis if area burned globally is in decline. Despite the uptick in media coverage surrounding #wildfires, he said there is not yet scientific literature to demonstrate that extreme events are changing.
“We’ve had this paradox where the amt of burning on #Earth is declining …& yet we are having #fires that are more extreme, more damaging,” said Stephen Pyne, fire historian & prof at Arizona State.…
Cunningham & team analyzed data from orbiting #NASA satellites, which collected 4 fire measurements per day over 21yrs. The results astounded him.
“I was expecting to see increases, but the rate of the increases surprised & alarmed me because we’re looking at quite a short period of time,” he said.
John Abatzoglou, a fire researcher at UC, said the focus on #ExtremeFires is critical bc they often supersede fire mitigation efforts.
“…hot, highly energetic fires…are the sort of fires that are very difficult for fire suppression to have the ability to control & stop,” he said.
Acc/to the study, as nighttime #temperatures increase, #wildfire intensity continues to stay strong through overnight hours. This poses a problem for firefighters who rely on that window for a break in the blaze….
@Nonilex elsewhere in my feed today is @GottaLaff posting about mass shootings being statistically down, counter to perception. Statistics are always problematic - the defition of "extreme fire" and "mass shootings" are steps instead of a continuum.
I like @kathhayhoe's analogy of rolling the dice but now there are more sixes in your hand.
How many situations resulted in fires that simple didn't happen 100 years ago? It's impossible to know. But hurricane intensity is easier to chart. Tropical storms fizzle out over cooler waters, but now they're more likely to become a catastrophic hurricane. Same with mass shootings erupting because guns are so prevalent.
The arc of the [whatever] universe is long, so stop arguing about short-term statistics.