randahl ,
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

Looking at the donations to Ukraine this spring, I am truly impressed. It took Europe a long time to get the aid going, but if we keep up this level, I am confident Putin will lose.

The Russian economy is in trouble, and Putin is both running out of money and Soviet era weapons.

I once saw an interview with a German who lived in Berlin in the last weeks of World War II. She said: "It looked like everything would work out, right until it all fell apart".

Putin will lose this war.

Runyan50 ,
@Runyan50@newsie.social avatar

@randahl @anderspuck Same with the USSR. It had issues, but no notice that it would just dissolve.

WhiteCatTamer ,
@WhiteCatTamer@mastodon.online avatar

@randahl Have they tried sending a drone to Putin’s palace carrying a boombox with the Swan Lake soundtrack playing on it yet?

amici ,
@amici@fribygda.no avatar

@randahl

Considering that Russia didn't have much debt before the war started, I sincerely doubt that "Putin is... running out of money..."

I have little doubt that if Putin needs money he can get it from somewhere, i.e. China. And the problem is that, much like monarchist France's wars in the 18th century, if he thinks that any monetary price is worth the war, then he can keep on heaping on debt until it becomes unbearable and the economy collapses.

The problem is that it can take decades

anderspuck ,
@anderspuck@krigskunst.social avatar

@amici @randahl Decades is probably a too much. There are other factors influencing the economy than the availability of of money, and Russia will run into some serious problems within a couple of years.

randahl OP ,
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

@anderspuck
Also: States cannot increase their debt, if no one trusts their economies to last.

This is the reason Putin is now raising taxes from 13-15 percent to 18-22 percent, even though this is highly unpopular.
@amici

mcv ,
@mcv@friendica.opensocial.space avatar

@amici @randahl

Who would continue to lend money to Putin if he's just sinking the country deeper into debt for a war he can't win?

amici ,
@amici@fribygda.no avatar

@mcv @randahl

People who thinks they'll benefit. China might view the war as beneficial in exhausting and distracting the west, while they gain ever greater influence over Russia. So China might want a longer war.

randahl OP ,
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

@amici having seen Putin steal western assets is the reason China is hesitant.
@mcv

amici ,
@amici@fribygda.no avatar

@randahl @mcv

Russia is in a very serious proxy war with the West. Unless Beijing are planning something similar against Russia, I don't see why they would be intimidated.

They're willing to invest all over Africa even where the political climate is not so stable, and even in Afghanistan. In comparison, Russia does not seem like the worst place to try and get some influence over, although China is of course going to invest and sell to them as beneficial for themselves as possible.

randahl OP ,
@randahl@mastodon.social avatar

@amici I agree with your Africa point. I am only responding based on the political moves China has taken so far.

In the beginning of the war, one could fear, China would support Russia like they supported North Korea in the Korean war. This has not happened.

@mcv

taatm ,
@taatm@mathstodon.xyz avatar

@randahl
I think you need to get into the habit of hash-tagging

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