@wdlindsy I'm skimming so maybe I missed it, but I don't think any of those articles addresses abstention. How many people voted Stein who would have otherwise not have voted? As I said, I've yet to see a decent study of that.
As for this year, the strategy appears to be the final one in your final link: send the election to Congress.
Anyway, I still think the initial article in the thread is mediocre. There is a good story to write on this (maybe by a Florida 2000 Nader voter?) but this ain't