Oh cool, a bunch of soldiers whos only military experience is goose stepping in front of their glorious leader and filling up balloons with shit to float over South Korea...
They're the global equivalent of the stereotypical trenchcoat wearing, wannabe-nazi bullies that leave flaming bags of shit on people's doorsteps and couldnt spraypaint a swastika if they had a gun to their head.
I hope Kim rations them extra pants, cause given their track record, they're going to be filling up more than balloons.
The military treaty states: “In the event that any one of the two sides is put in a state of war by an armed invasion from an individual state or several states, the other side shall provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay.”
Russia send the NK troops forwards in human waves, mostly under armed with all of the rusty waves. The NK troops surrender when given the chance. Russia waits for the surrendering NK troops to get the Ukrainian troops out of cover and then opens up with artillery and FPV drones on both the Ukrainian troops and NK defectors.
That, or depending on how mistreated they were in North Korea, the soldiers surrender immediately because I'd have to assume Ukrainian prisons/jails/whatever are nowhere near as bad as just living in North Korea.
I believe this is a possibility, esp. considering how openly Ukraine will accept surrenders/defectors. Russia may be a shithole for a lot of people, but Ukraine doesn’t have a huge amount of benefit to offer most Russians (to surrender/defect) compared to North Koreans. Ya, know, aside from the freedom from chattel military slavery… but most in NK have it much worse than Russians, so the appeal would be greater.
Trump will 100% try to negotiate Taiwan for more money for himself. Decades of defense spending of a ludicrous amount of money will be for naught. Taiwan will be gone, and Ukraine's funding will dry up between the US and a good swath of Europe (ironically minus The UK!) taking a hard turn right.
I thought about that for a long time, and, honestly, it seems that Russia may have stolen China’s thunder there by invading Ukraine. As a result, the whole world (mostly) super-hates and has united against Russia with untold billions of weapons and aid to Ukraine.
What’s China to think of their Taiwan plan, now? Well, I think it’s obvious by watching what they’re doing, what they’ve been doing.
Although they’ve become more aggressive in the South China Sea, what with building all their fake islands and atolls in order to claim some sovereignty to the waters. But most of what they’re doing merely amounts to harassment and bullying of surrounding nations. And while there’s been a good amount of somewhat-incendiary talk re: China’s intentions towards Taiwan, they’ve actually done very little to accomplish that goal, as of late. They’re being careful, weighing their options, and proceeding slowly but surely.
Will Taiwan become the next place invaded? A new flashpoint? I don’t think so, or, at least, not for a while. The Ukraine War, Russia’s almost-collapsed economy, and their need for aid of all kinds has put China into an uncomfortable position, and they seem to be reprioritizing. Also, Taiwan has had a defense buildup for several years, and they’re far more capable of defending themselves than before.
If China makes any serious move against Taiwan, IMO, it will be a while from now.
Idk. We've choked China out of AI supremacy. All of our mega GDP makers rely heavily on TSMC. Heavily.
I mean, entirely.
Like Biden throwing billions at chip manufacturers. Tensions in the South China Sea are ridiculous. The stakes have never been higher, and it's right in what they see as their back yard. Taking down TSMC cripples the US economy, causes a worldwide kerfuffle (especially with tensions from Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Palestine, Israel/Iran, US/Israel, US/Ukraine, US/Iran relationships.
I get what you mean that you've been thinking that for a decade. Ive been seeing it for as long. But it's gotten real with the AI bubble and tech sanctions. If it doesn't burst before 2030, there's no way China doesn't act. Frankly, I'm betting on less than 6 months.
All of China’s actions that you have described, I see as a dissipation of the united effort against Taiwan. Like I said, I’m not saying it won’t happen, I’m just saying it won’t happen really soon. China actually gives a huge shit about their international reputation. And they don’t want to that damaged fighting a war they can’t win. They will wait to move on Taiwan until they can be reasonably assured of a victory. And that won’t happen anytime soon.
China is also quite adept at fighting economic wars (like the US), and that’s what they’re going to do with AI. Just with money and sanctions and diplomatic bullshittery.
Id put money on it happening before 2031. Like lots of money.
But Xi outright told Biden he and to invade Taiwan. This year. Verbatim. I guess I'm saying he'll lose a lot of public respect. Not that that's as valued there as it is in the US, but it's still reflect globally very weak and that's just not what global superpowers do. They don't make clear threats empty.
2031? Maybe. If the Ukraine war ends soon, it would give them a couple of years before they started up their bullshit. So, yeah, maybe. (Edit 2) I’d say it’s much more likely of Russia walks away with favorable terms, even less likely should Russia end up with an embarrassing loss…
But the stuff with AI it’s not some thing they could win with their military. Not even by taking over Taiwan (which I’m not convinced they can). Economic pressure that they can weild certainly would be more likely to help them achieve their goals. It just takes a lot longer.
Edit:
They don't make clear threats empty.
Oh, yes they do. All the time. China is a lot more talk than they are action, and they always have been. That’s why I am skeptical about them invading Taiwan anytime soon.
I put a hard barrier past 2030 because of the China Reunification thing. It's a big thing for Xi. If he doesn't attempt he'll look like a no-balls fearful leader, or something. Idk.
And I say 2024 because he balls'd up around Xmas 2023 and said, as I mentioned, verbatim, "We will invade Taiwan this (next) year"
Agreed and same toward you. Apologies if I came off as dismissive.
I think we felt the same in probably 2022. I think the recent tech supremacy race and the weird things like the US ordering Apple closing up shop in China, ordering all US companies (Nvidia) to not sell them the good stuff, and the efforts to separate specifically Chinese nationals from US higher education programs that delve into high end tech stuff is... Telling. And then... Shit like this?!
I won't ignore the possibility of propaganda creating the divergence in where we probably agreed 2 years ago and where I am now. But I feel there's enough economic proof and to me, historically it's always seemed like money talks.
But I digress. Agree to disagree. I'll be happy if I'm wrong lol.
I've been looking at it through the lens of this obscure joke from an old David Cross standup back in like 2003. Sad how relevant some of it still is. Highly recommend the whole special. It's aged great. Not sure if that playlist is in the correct order, so... Tough sell. :)
Then we got the leaks saying the Chinese Military is Fubared by corruption down to the warehouse workers.
Russia could at least limp into Donbas when their Kiev assault disintegrated. If China tries to invade Taiwan and their missiles don't launch, it will be a stupidly expensive, deadly, embarrassment. Just ships and planes littering the ocean floor.
Xhi needs to be confident that his navy won't get pulled into Taipei ports by tugboat like Russian Tanks in the cornfields.
Xhi needs to be confident that his navy won't get pulled into Taipei ports by tugboat like Russian Tanks in the cornfields.
If you start following the news coming out of the tensions in the South China seas, you'll see that China is indeed confident despite the US's enormous presence/teaming up with Japan to protect Taiwan...
China starting it like that had been my firm suspicion for years, but after the past year or so, I've changed my mind. They still could be the ones to trigger it, but there are so many more players now. Russia could start it (or have already done so without us realizing it yet). Israel could start it. China could start it over island territories that they have no legitimate claim over--oh wait, that includes Taiwan.
Update: South Korea says it will send actual, meaningful numbers of troops into Pyongyang within thirty-one days, bringing a formal end to conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
Only when crashing into the ocean, thousands of miles short of its target
Edit: seriously, though, it’s pretty clear that they can build nuclear warheads (how many and what size is unclear), but their problem is getting the bomb to its target.
Rocketry is hard. It’s uber-expensive, and it requires a great deal of trial-and-error. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had gotten data, etc, from Russia and China like some guidance (or even rocket plans), but NK’s best physicists and aerospace engineers are both: not that great, and working entirely alone with a budget that is a minuscule fraction of anyone else who has tried this.
They’ve been trying to launch an ICBM successfully for almost 2 decades. They haven’t had much success yet.
