@rbreich there's more to that story involving the change in reference model used to predict mortality from the Imperial College model (which predicted over 1,000,000 fatalities in the US) to a novel approach using curve fitting developed by University of Washington IHME which predicted the 200,000 number. Both Fauci and Birx went on a media blitz promoting this new prediction e.g. Fauci was on NPR.
Many experts questioned the methodology and accuracy of this new model at the time. IHME quietly abandoned the model over the summer and switched back to a conventional compartmental model.