@ChrisMayLA6@RolloTreadway I was just composing a similar response.. where we are in rural North Yorkshire the farming community and retirees who move here will always vote Tory. Local MP is actively disliked by many but they couldn't bring themselves to vote for another party. However..a lot of WASPI women without pensions and the higher rural cost of living means many older people are really struggling financially..but suspect they will either not vote at all or some may vote green as a protest.
I've heard theorising that the "floor" for a major party is about 20% - that this is the percentage of the population whose vote isn't swayed by facts or events, and who would continue to be loyal if the sun went black.
If this is true, then the drop from 45% to 25% polling for the Tories represents a loss of eight out of ten of their non-hardliner voters. This means that while there isn't much further that they can fall, it also means that the party will now be driven by the need to posture to those hardliners, whose priorities may not be the same as those of the rest of the country.
I'm really scared of that point (where the ageing loyalist base can no longer sustain the party) to be honest.
In the US, over the period 1992 and 2014, the average age of a Republican voter went up by almost 20 years. In other words, it was the same cadre of ageing boomers voting for the same cadre of ageing candidates.
When that ended in 2016, it didn't end in the party becoming more reasonable - it ended in the party being sufficiently hollowed-out that its worst impulses could take it over.
Recently I think Sunak has been leaning in that direction. When he took power he was the consummate "man in a grey suit", the very epitome of the Conservative archetype of dull, uncharismatic but competent centre-Right rulership. Contrast that to where he is now, rambling about "wokeness" and "gender ideology" while ignoring economic realities.
Sunak strikes me as a survivor - a man who'll say or do what it takes to stay relevent. I don't think he's made this shift for personal reasons, I think he's done it because he realises that pandering to their worst impulses is what the party base want.
@RolloTreadway When a category of people feel entitled to power because of their inherent superiority they can find ways to subvert and maintain the legal appearances of democracy as a bulwark against their removal. So the actual minimum percentage required in such a highly stratified country can shockingly small. @passenger@ChrisMayLA6@stuffjolikes
@RolloTreadway@ChrisMayLA6 I find myself in the strange position of wondering if her views would be different if she did go to church.
I understand from friends who do that CofE has changed somewhat in the last two or three decades. They've moved far more than many old institutions on acceptance of women and people of colour in leadership roles, supporting queer people, accessibility, directly running poverty support schemes, etc. They're just far more about social justice than they were.
It must be quite disorientating to find oneself so distanced from what was a core part of oneself. I suspect Starmer would like to capitalise on that and may believe he's doing so by looking so much like a moderate Tory. But as your example shows, it's often easier to move to a minority party than to The Other Side - again, due to identity.
@RolloTreadway Not sure how it shakes out there but overall it makes a definite difference here, even in a state sure to vote solid blue. The bigger that vote is as the day goes on the more encouraged people are to vote in states they thought were hopeless. 2016 was decided buy only 84kish votes over 3 states. Here every vote truly does count. @ChrisMayLA6