During the #Munich conference I was asked why I am so gloomy. Well, somebody has to tell it like it is, so here’s how it is: Things are not going well
It is good practice to evaluate things honestly - with all their gloominess. And if we don't shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In #Ukraine, in the rest of #Europe and possibly globally
#Ukraine is starved of ammunition and forced to pull back, #Europe is ⏩
↪ facing challenges which might test Article 5, and global instability emerges because autocrats are emboldened by #russia's action and our cautious response. This is not pessimism. This is fact
Baseless optimism is a form of self-deception, it is demobilising us. How can we expect to convince the public to spend more on defence, take a stronger stance against #russia and support countries on the eastern flank if leaders won’t admit there is an urgent need?
↪ because tomorrow might be too late. We need a push, a jolt, a shock to wake us up. The war is not over, it's far from won, the enemy is very much alive and our European future is at stake
I have no doubt that the West has the capacity to help #Ukraine win this war. That is a fact. It is also clear that #russia’s industrial power is no match for the united West. But...
We don't lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support #Ukraine and maintain our ⏩
↪ collective security. #russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy #Ukraine and reestablish the #russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this?
Currently we are an open book to our adversary - clear red lines of non-engagement, disagreements over continuation of assistance and an optimistic blindness to increasing risks. We show no urgency in ramping up our readiness
Strategically the goal should be to change #putin's calculations. Disrupt the field. ⏩
@JSharp1436 in point. If I would be a nihilist I would start a fundraiser to bribe an Kaliningrad iskander commander and it's fsb counterpart. We will not wake up until dead puppies and nuked population centers. Nope. Below that we will suck up and throw all to the wolves :(
The FM wanted to "disrupt the field", and my recommendation is for Lithuania to target Kaliningrad to really upset putin in the run up to his election and hopefully derail it as much as Lithuanianly possible.
@JSharp1436 the FM of Lithuania? Interesting. I would say go: go for it! Good idea! But we all know what the 'escalation management' faction will say :( And based on this Lithuania has to bow :( Election day is the day - if I were part of the #axisofevil I would take that chance. 3x attacks. (P. S. As DE therefore I hope that the 'Steadfast defender's will stay in the field... But of course they will not). In Sep we will know it (sat pictures).