But if this helps, 🧵via Stephen Fowler, a Georgia reporter and voice of reason in many cases, reports: 1/…
New CBS News post-debate polling shows — stop me if you’ve heard this before — no statistically significant movement, and an essentially tied head to head race still, both nationally
Even in expanded ballot test — which doesn’t include the Libertarian Party nominee that’s actually on most ballots and does include Stein/West, who are not, Biden’s w/in MoE behind Trump
@GottaLaff People who respond to you as though they haven't read what you've written......haven't. 😜 Hope today is a bit better as the day progresses. It's still wildass fools over here. I add a calming cosmos bloom
@GottaLaff So read a recent poll (polls are dumb) that the ONLY Democrat who trounces Trump is Michelle Obama, and she's never running. Biden does better than any other Dem against Trump.
If you are truly anti-Trump, anti-Nazi, anti-fascist you vote for Biden. You pull your head out of your fantastical Edenic butt and vote for the candidate who is not gloating about imprisoning his enemies with complete immunity.
I'm never giving money again to Julian Castro or Tim Ryan. Clearly they both lost their last races, so when did they become experts at how to win? Biden was ruled a loser after NH primary (I was a Warren voter), and yet he beat Trump by 7 million votes in the general.
@GottaLaff I'm pretty skeptical about polls for a couple reasons: 1.) The way the media is funded currently there is a strong financial interest in having a horse race because it keeps people clicking 2.) When the abortion amendment was on the Ohio ballot, we had record turnout to pass it. I'm not sure the polls are considering how big of any issue reproductive care is for American women.
& the lag is from Biden supporters who might not vote
The story of this election has been+appears to still be “can/will Biden’s diverse coalition he cobbled together in 2020 show up again in 2024,” with slippage in any one demo (Black voters, moderate anti-Trump Rs, etc) easily dooming his chances.
So far, it seems “No,” but talking to voters (and those who for now are non-voters) they indicate it’s possible that some come back to the fold, especially because it’s only just now July
Plus Trump has a ceiling he’s consistently hitting while third party candidates aren’t gaining traction either.
The takeaway here isn’t that Biden is somehow winning (or that Trump is leading), but more so that, much like Trump’s conviction/charges, Biden’s age and poor debate performance seems to be priced into the electorate’s decision to vote/not vote for him.
Political polls are kinda like predicting day to day weather in the throes of climate change.
We’ve never been here before and we have no idea how it will play out
@GottaLaff I am actually doing better and feeling more hopeful.. it will be a slog to get there but I think,l at least at the moment - we got this... hoping your week will be cooler than ours... so far we still are having crisp cold mornings - currently 46 here with a low of 41......
@GottaLaff yep, as I said, nothing of this matters and polls are heavily biased towards trump because of age group. So there is no surprise that they are almost not movable - because these people are mostly elderly who are not gonna flip their alliance at this point.
@GottaLaff thanks for sharing. i read a CNN post-debate poll earlier today. similar results. btw, v.p. harris polled similarly to biden, if she were running. 🌈
@GottaLaff
I haven't believed a poll since 2016.
They MIGHT mean something if they actually polled a broad cross section of voters.
I'm with you. Polls are dumb.
@GottaLaff My own view, for what that's worth, is that TFG is one of Putin's 'useful idiots'. If they get power, he'll have 'an accident'. Do try and keep the rational people in charge.
@GottaLaff , yep, some people aren't even thinking about voting yet. The truth is, we don't know what will happen until it happens. The media acts like they can predict the future because it sells. Personal anxiety drives negative forecasting, too. Take a breath, people! Do what you can do now.