Tropical disturbance Invest 95L in the central Atlantic is likely to develop into Tropical Storm Beryl in the next 48 hours and evolve to Hurricane status in ~4 days.
Tropical disturbance Invest 95L in the central Atlantic has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 with sustained winds of 35 mph. Won't be long before it is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beryl and Hurricane Beryl. Early forecast models show it strengthening to a Cat 4 hurricane.
Sea Surface Temperatures are relatively high in the path of Tropical Depression 2, which will create conditions ripe for rapid intensification of TD2 into Hurricane Beryl within the next 48 hours.
As expected, TD2 is now Tropical Storm Beryl, with sustained winds of 50 mph.
From https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/290836.shtml -
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are abnormally favorable for strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification.
Peak intensity conservative estimate = 110 mph in 60-72 h.
After 72 h, the storm is expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause some weakening.
Tropical Storm Beryl has been on a steady strengthening trend since it formed yesterday; sustained wind speeds have increased from 35 mph to 65 mph in the past 18 hours.
Its structure is more symmetric and compact; Beryl is expected to rapidly intensify given the low wind shear conditions.
For 2024, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with -
17-25 named storms (average is 14)
8-13 hurricanes (average 7)
4-7 major hurricanes (average 3)
The primary drivers -
La Niña caused reduction in wind shear over the Atlantic Basin
Above normal sea surface temps in the tropical Atlantic region
Hurricane Beryl continues to strengthen, now packing 85 mph winds.
Beryl has all the ingredients favorable for continued rapid intensification over the next 24 hours - low wind shear, deep layer moisture and over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. Some weakening is forecast after 48 hours due to westerly vertical
wind shear.
Hurricane Beryl is strengthening more rapidly than NHC predictions. It is already a Cat 3 hurricane with wind speeds of 115 mph at 8:00 am EDT..
The Windward Islands (Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada) will feel its destructive force later tonight into tomorrow morning.
Max. winds are predicted at 130 mph in 24 hours; that number will very likely be updated upwards.
An AF and a NOAA recon aircraft have reached Hurricane Beryl and are making measurements, as they crisscross through and around the eye of the hurricane.
Both aircraft have measured wind speeds of 125 mph. See graphs below from the AF300 mission.
The fingerprints of Climate Change are all over Hurricane Beryl and over the forecast for the above-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year.
Sea-surface temperature anomaly (deviation from norm) is breaking all-time records this year after a record year in 2023.
Heatwaves, drought, floods, storms, sea-level rise, and glacial melting are all linked to increased amount of greenhouse gases like CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere.