Trump will be sentenced based on his conviction in the NYC election interference case (Where the jury found he paid off a porn star to hide his affair from the public, in violation of either NY or US election law.)
The sentence could be anything from nothing to years and years of prison. It's up to the judge. One man. Poor dude. I would not want to be the "decider" on this one!
This is the decision of a judge, so who will he look to, to know if he made a good call? Who is he talking it over with?
He'll want the respect of other judges, of "great legal minds" he'll want everyone to say he did a good fair job.
Everyone won't say that, and he must know this. But I think the kind of people who's opinion will matter to him would be disgusted with "nothing" -- and critical of anything that seems vindictive or anything but cool blooded.
@futurebird@callisto@benroyce It could simply be that under originalism the founders really didn't believe in democracy and the constitution was mere virtue signaling. Such is the solipsism of MAGA justices!
some trivia i learned from my days living in the #hudsonvalley
(i ran into into #PeteSeeger ("If I Had a Hammer") a lot, a wave and a smile. no joke, he would always be in town doing errands, as well as his local little concerts and appearances in local festivals, well into advanced age):
@futurebird he should either be locked up for his functional life or none at all. See erdogan , they turned his "cell" to a luxury political war room where he received guests to build his support while being a "victim". Those people don't experience things like prison like powerless people do.
@futurebird
What a great idea, and why not both? The month of contempt NOW, because the trial is over, and the two years, despite it being a first conviction because he shows aggression rather than contrition.
After today's SCROTUM ruling, do you still think he will get "Community service, Parole, Other?" What IS "other," anyway? A parade down 5th Avenue where he can shoot randomly at guys standing in the street?
In limited polls like this, it's better to be specific.
I don't think prison is possible. I guess we'll find out in another week or so. Maybe today's ruling will anger the trial judge and he'll give Trump prison time--but the judge could have given Trump prison time for violating the gag order 9 times and he didn't.
@futurebird Turns out about 2/3rds of people who voted on this have more faith than me in our institutions. Cause while I would want one of the above (considering our carceral justice system), I expect he will receive no real sentencing beyond some monetary penalty. The courts have definitely eroded my trust in them over the last several years.
@futurebird I accidentally misread this and clicked the wrong thing. I wish we could change our response within a short period or something on polls. :sadness:
@futurebird re: "verdict tomorrow" - I thought sentencing was July 11th; has that changed/am I missing something? I admittedly have not been paying super close attention 😅
@futurebird I voted for some prison because Judge Merchan has been obnoxiously fair throughout this thing. If this were some trust fund brat doing something similar, and was equally unrepentant, I think that's what he'd do.
Can you see Trump doing community service? I can't. He would use it as another opportunity to grift while he tells his followers that he's working on behalf of them.
@futurebird community service, but it's the option he hates most but still physically capable of. more time will be added the more he refuses and fucks around.
I think a substantial number of hours of community service is both the most likely and, actually, the most fair for this particular offense (along with a huge fine). For Trump, I think actual manual labor (picking up trash, cleaning at a homeless shelter, etc.) would be more punishing than prison - where he would get special treatment.
@futurebird I don't think there's a judge in the US that wants to deal with sending a former president to prison, and all the weird issues that raises. I fully expect minimal consequences, because that's how our system works for (allegedly) rich white men.
@futurebird I hate to say this, but I suspect that his sentence will be nothing; a stern talking-to followed by a fingers-crossed promise to straighten up and fly right.
If that is the case might as well dismiss all the other charges.
I could be wrong about prison. But I find this unlikely. The judge would not have many friends in his own profession if he makes this call. This is a Judge Cannon move.
@futurebird I'm hoping I'm wrong, but I'm not feeling optimistic. My hope would be that TFG gets from Judge Merchan the same treatment as any other convicted felon, particularly one who is egregiously unrepentent and aggressively disrespectful and threatening. But. We shall see.
There are things he could do to stay out. But he's not doing those things.
He's pushing the limits of the contract. You are right that he never had to go to prison, but he's testing the limits of the system and there are limits.
Tipping their hat to the power and respectability of The Justice System is the price the great and 'good' must pay for special treatment.
If they want to thumb their nose at the power of government AND expect to be treated better than us plebs they need to control that government first.
To hand out such favors to Trump is to cede power for no reason. So unless it's His Government he's in real peril of prison for the aggregate of the charges and I think he knows it.
@futurebird I would hope for some prison time but I do not feel the “intestinal fortitude” is alive and well within our judiciary. It would great to have trump spend some quality time in prison with Bubba, discussing daily events.
I would make him go in right now. But, I don't think the judge is brave enough to deal with the fall out from making that call.
He has done nothing to suggest softening the sentence. Every sign he'd do it again. No "it was a mistake" or "it was my first time running a serious campaign and I have learned"
No, he has been convicted of being in contempt of the court. So let's see that contempt in the sentence.
@futurebird What they mustn't do is give him just a little prison time. A month starting now would might win him the election.
... or maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the only people buying his "help, help, I'm being repressed" line are cultists who will definitely vote for him anyway. Maybe the inability to campaign would let people slow down and think about what he's done.
@futurebird ... and he's totally a flight risk. If they tell him, "eight years, report next week", he'll fly to Scotland and declare himself President in Exile.
@futurebird@peterdrake He has said if he’s facing prison time he definitely would not fly to Russia. So he’s definitely considering it.
For the sentence, I think it won’t be jail time. I could be wrong, but this being his first criminal conviction (😡) means he is not getting anywhere near the max. I could be wrong. I want to be wrong. But I am assuming all we get from this is priors that will make his next convictions result in harsher sentences.
@futurebird When Microsoft was on trial in the 90s I believe they were actually performing a strategy of pissing off the judge so much (lying to the court, etc) that when he finally reacted like a human and snapped back at them they could claim to the press/appeals courts that the judge was biased (and it worked, they effectively got the whole thing thrown out on appeal).
To be honest I'm not sure I'm right about Microsoft. But I feel pretty certain Trump is doing this.
Although, I think people underestimate how complex it will be for him to untangle and suppress the cases even with the power of the president. I think it can be done but it will not be simple and it may not even be bloodless.
@futurebird Of course in this case the judge "snapping" might just refer to— as you brought up in your earlier post— the judge using their normal discretion to give a sharper sentence (such as selecting jail instead of probation) when the defendant is distinctly non-repentant, as would be normal practice. This judge has been AFAICT extremely level headed. But right wing media will cast a level-headed judge going "because of how you acted, you get this sentence" as the judge singling Trump out…
He will appeal no matter what. An appeal might reduce a sentence, but the judge is out of hazard now of being totally overturned as long as the sentence is something someone has gotten before.
@futurebird I genuinely think Merchan will make the call without considering the consequences to himself. He has shown himself to be pretty objective so far.
It seems unlikely that Trump wouldn't get bail though, but that's just because of what happens in comparable cases (or what passes for comparable here).
@futurebird I honestly don’t have hope about justice being done here. Two years seems low given the crimes, but I have no frame of reference. I also am struggling with the fact that so many people think this buffoon is a good leader.
About 25% of convictions of these charges result in prison. But in none of the similar cases did the defendant end up in contempt of court. For example tax cheats tended not to go to prison... but a woman who stole 30k from her boss went in for a whole year.
Is this more ugly than stealing some money? Stealing an election? Making us wonder what would have happened if they didn't do this?