kevinrothrock ,
@kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange avatar

In a new Substack post on the Ukraine War, Emma Ashford warns that "the substitution of escalation for critical thinking continues apace in Western capitals," with pressure "now focused less on specific systems and more on riskier forms of escalation." https://open.substack.com/pub/emmamashford/p/escalation-is-not-a-substitute-for?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=yxtq

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@kevinrothrock

i cannot support this language of the west "escalating" anything

logically they aren't: all escalation has already been done. by russia. answering in kind is not any sort of escalation

i don't think it is her intent, but i think speaking of western "escalation" only feeds into FSB disinfo narratives

kevinrothrock OP ,
@kevinrothrock@infosec.exchange avatar

@benroyce Nafistas are incapable of seeing it any other way.

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@kevinrothrock

any other way besides the reality? of course. because we live in reality

invaded . any response in defending ukraine is justified

period

speaking of "escalation" in regards to defense against is merely trafficking in absurdity

and anyone who thinks along these lines, of the west "escalating," are not necessarily suspect, but at the very least, delusional airheads who have zero idea of the stakes here

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @kevinrothrock
Have you read 'On The Beach'?

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@GreenFire @kevinrothrock

no

i thought it was a gregory peck movie

why?

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @kevinrothrock
Because you seemed to be minimizing the risk of escalation with a nuclear armed adversary.

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@GreenFire @kevinrothrock

if we allow russia to achieve its objectives by threatening nukes, this means they will continue with the threat

additionally other authoritarian regimes will copy the strategy: it works

furthermore more states will get nukes because ukraine gave up there's

result: a world with lot more nuke threats and lot more nukes, increasing the chance of nukes being used

so russia may use nukes, yes

it's just that giving into the threats means an even greater chance of nukes

fisherstudio ,
@fisherstudio@infosec.exchange avatar

@benroyce @GreenFire @kevinrothrock It’s not as though we haven’t already tested this theory. I think you are correct. Not FSB

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@fisherstudio @GreenFire @kevinrothrock

if any western weapons are used on russian territory, russia said it will nuke the west

problem is, plenty of western weapons have been used on crimea

so at the very least, this proves that russia does not consider crimea to be russian territory

putin is a "genius"

edgeofeurope ,
@edgeofeurope@mastodon.social avatar

@benroyce @fisherstudio @GreenFire @kevinrothrock I'm still amazed thay we're all afraid of a man who, with one of the largest armies in the world, has been incapable of taking Ukraine, with a much smaller army, at the start mainly equipped with Soviet era weapons. Putin doesn't scare me at all. But don't give him too much time.

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@edgeofeurope @benroyce @fisherstudio @kevinrothrock
If not for this I'd certainly agree.

Russia possesses a total of 5,580 nuclear warheads as of 2024, the largest confirmed stockpile of nuclear warheads in the world.

Everyone should be scared of that imho.

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@GreenFire @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio @kevinrothrock

we should be scared of it yes, and adjust accordingly

but not scared in such a way that we give russia something for threatening to use them

that just means more nuclear threats. from russia and every autocrat

by threatening to use nukes, russia defined the terms of its war on ukraine: it must lose

any other outcome and our future is nuke threats 24/7. because they proved it works

the world must learn the value of threatening nukes

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio @kevinrothrock
My argument is that Joe Biden and his advisors are dealing with the nuclear threat effectively. Putin's on the ropes and his orcs will most likely be forced to withdraw from Ukraine shortly after this fall's election depending on how it goes.

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio @kevinrothrock
I'm also excited to see how this Peace Conference goes next month too. There might be some pleasant surprises from that. In fact I think that Joe Biden is withholding allowing our weapons to strike Russia outside the Kharkiv region as a bargaining chip too.

All of the criticism that he gets makes him have less political capital though so maybe we shouldn't expect too much.

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@GreenFire @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio @kevinrothrock

sure but why do you continue to center this topic on biden

the proper lens to view the war on ukraine is larger than the usa

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio
Europe has just been too slow on Ukraine and there is no way that they are going to build a defense industry in time to have much impact beyond this new drone warfare.

I have been psyched that they've started to step up finally as these fake polls have scared them into thinking Trump might take power again here though. I am quite excited to see how the next few years go after these elections are over.

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio
If elections go well this year, I think we may have the authoritarians on the run for a spell.

edgeofeurope ,
@edgeofeurope@mastodon.social avatar

@GreenFire @benroyce @fisherstudio Trump losing these elections is far from the end of it, in my humble European opinion. The whole GOP is poisoned, it's going to take a lot more than that, even if he should choke on a McNugget tomorrow.
But I digress.

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@edgeofeurope @GreenFire @fisherstudio

additionally, the right is on the rise in europe

so even with our (american) continuing problems, which you are correct are not going to magically vanish, the threat continues to mutate and shift elsewhere and abroad

this is not a straight up world war, but it is a global battlefield now of disinfo corruption and bigotry

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio
I just posted a while ago about Don Junior and crew being down in El Salvador for the inauguration of a far-right president to a second term.

We are definitely in a global "war" over a liberal world order versus authoritarianism imho.

benroyce ,
@benroyce@mastodon.social avatar

@GreenFire @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio

and the shifts in west #africa towards #russia. not good

the concerns with patronizing attitudes towards africa are valid, and they are sick of #france and the #usa

understandable

but west africa might learn the hard way what russia represents. it's certainly worse than the west

but i am not too concerned

many african countries played the west and the ussr off each other in the cold war to get concessions from both. a continuation of that game is fine

GreenFire ,
@GreenFire@mstdn.social avatar

@benroyce @edgeofeurope @fisherstudio
My biggest fear is that Putin is our generation's Mussolini and Xi is an analogue of Hitler we may have to deal with.

I feel that we have some major issues to deal with which is why I'm trying so hard to get as many Democrats elected as possible this year since I trust them a lot more than our alternatives.

I worry about Europe, but try not to put my two cents in about because it can impact how my comments on the USA are interpreted.

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