Yeah, that's gonna be a 1:10, maybe 1:20 chance of happening from here out.
Basically, Biden's lost.
However, everything I'm seeing him do is the opposite of what he should be doing. He's trying to court Republicans. He'll never get them. He's lost support across the entire Democratic base. He's losing them.
But yeah, I agree with your assessment of 5%. He needs to be +5% going into November to win.
I thought I remembered RCP making some questionable calls in 2022 with people thinking they were trying last minute to skew polls to help republicans. And I found this review when I went looking for that memory.
