Housing Bubble 2: Return of the Ugly

OsrsNeedsF2P , in Mom Takes Her Adult Son Apartment Hunting & Realizes There is No Way He Can Afford To Live On His Own — ‘Millennials Are Not Lazy’

And her son wasn't the only one struggling. Jess received a call from her eldest daughter, who was complaining that her husband was going to have to quit his job to take care of their kids because of how expensive childcare was. They were spending more on daycare than what he was earning.

Obviously the solution is to ban abortion

sunzu , in Mom Takes Her Adult Son Apartment Hunting & Realizes There is No Way He Can Afford To Live On His Own — ‘Millennials Are Not Lazy’

Moms of millennials are still taking them apartment shopping?

Or they forgot to swap the generation on this one?

qarbone ,

It's called 'having a person in your life who worries too much'. I'm a millennial and I'm getting close to this point, with how often my parent keeps asking me about finding a better place to live when I'm scrounging to find places that won't cost an arm and a leg

sunzu ,

facts but let's be real... there are gen x and boomers who are in the same boat competing with GEN Y & Z for the same shiti apartment stock lol

undergroundoverground ,

I'd guess that it was to prove a point to someone who wouldn't accept the world wasn't how they declared it to be, despite being wrong.

I mean, not all of them but some boomers are beyond impossible with this stuff. I think there's a real denial in many of them because so many saw their wealth expload simply for buying a dirt cheap house or having a job you now need a degree for and all the real chances of slary progression have been taken away.

I think it makes people start wondering where its coming from and, rather than think about that, they decide that things are fine or else they'd have to start thinking about one particular generations insatiable greed.

SirSamuel ,

Millennials aren't lazy, they're taking their kids apartment shopping

Gingerlegs , in Mom Takes Her Adult Son Apartment Hunting & Realizes There is No Way He Can Afford To Live On His Own — ‘Millennials Are Not Lazy’

Lol

mydoomlessaccount , in Costco Plans to Build 800 Prefab Apartments Above Its Newest Store

Ah, dang. I knew I shouldn't have wished for more mixed-use housing on that monkey's paw. My bad, guys. This one's on me.

tyler , in Barcelona to ban vacation apartments in bid to make city ‘livable’ again

I wonder what you do if you already have one booked. I’m going to Barcelona later this year, but we’ll be in a hotel thankfully. Just wonder what would have happened if we hadn’t gone with a hotel.

ManosTheHandsOfFate ,
@ManosTheHandsOfFate@lemmy.world avatar

Well since it's not happening until 2028, people will have plenty of forewarning.

Supervivens , in This decades-long trend in home prices has been 'flipped on its head' amid a big shift in the housing market

Paywall

Tylerdurdon ,

Payblur

sunzu , in Costco Plans to Build 800 Prefab Apartments Above Its Newest Store

And we come full circle.

Att his point... Whatever just fucking build housing.

skeezix ,

This isn’t housing. This is a captured customer base.

Last laugh: will be a drug den

JJROKCZ , in Costco Plans to Build 800 Prefab Apartments Above Its Newest Store

I’m not against this, every time I go to Europe and see people living above the storefronts I think it’s a great idea. Now… I will say I’d rather have the thousands of small business stores rather than these massive box stores but the cat is out of the bag already in the us

KeraKali ,

Definitely love this idea, make it with a nice courtyard with plenty of green in and around the structure and it'd be great.

MutilationWave ,

I feel like this could get twisted to the dark side by let's say Walmart. Live above Walmart, work at Walmart, buy everything you need from Walmart then get cremated there. Probably while on food stamps because they still don't pay enough.

Zachariah ,
@Zachariah@lemmy.world avatar

If all the staff work there, it makes organizing a strike much easier.

MutilationWave ,

To continue in my dystopian vision, it would also make things like shutting off the heat to the apartments in retaliation easier too.

jonne ,

Yeah, people like Elon Musk are trying to revive the 19th century concept of company towns. Move your employees to the middle of nowhere in Texas, suddenly they're renting your houses, buying stuff from your store and basically never leaving. Quitting/getting fired suddenly involves uprooting your whole family to a completely different state on short notice.

sunzu ,

Company's towns ain't a new concept

Drusas ,

I used to live above a grocery store with a food court and a handful of restaurants. It was fantastic aside from the occasional middle-of-the-night (or day) fire alarm.

AA5B ,

My town has this! A really nice walkable “Main Street” of shops and restaurants, many with apartments above. It’s a great thing to have

Etterra ,

Isn't Costco employee owned?

JJROKCZ ,

I don’t really see how it’s relevant?

blindbunny , in Crime wave incoming

I don't blame them. Society has otherized them to the point that they don't want to be a part of it anymore. Arm the homeless for their safety because they're about to be forced into slavery.

Zorsith , in Crime wave incoming
@Zorsith@lemmy.blahaj.zone avatar

If you see someone committing the "crime" of being homeless and sleeping outside, no you didn't.

EvilEyedPanda ,

And get them a coffee and a donut.

9tr6gyp3 , in Believe it or not, there’s a housing surplus—but not for people who can’t afford a home, study finds

**PAYWALLED YET AGAIN **

BubbleMonkey ,
@BubbleMonkey@slrpnk.net avatar

It isn’t paywalled for me, so here’s the text in full:

The long-bemoaned housing shortage may not exist after all. Rather, there’s a shortage of cheap rents and affordable homes, according to a new study. 

The peer-reviewed study, published in April in the academic journal *Housing Policy Debate, *found that between 2000 and 2020, the U.S. had a surplus of 3.3 million homes—defying conventional wisdom that the nation is facing a housing shortage. 

“We’re sort of an outlier in our analysis, and partly it’s because we’re taking this longer-term perspective,” Alex Schwartz, one of the study’s authors and chair of the master’s program in urban policy at the New School, tells *Fortune. *

The study examined how fast the housing stock grew between the first two decades of the 2000s and compared it with the number of new households formed during that time period. Schwartz and his research partner, Kirk McClure, professor emeritus of urban planning at the University of Kansas, argue that many current studies that examine housing stock—which find that there is a national shortage—don’t go back in time far enough and therefore overlook the large number of homes that were built during the housing boom that stretched from 2000 to 2007. 

“The housing bubble that we experienced was a big growth in prices, but also a big growth in production,” McClure tells Fortune. 

The collapse of that formerly prosperous real estate market triggered the Great Recession. The study also included the subsequent recovery from the Great Recession that lasted from 2012 to 2020, the year of the pandemic. 

Capturing such a long stretch of time makes sure the research doesn’t overreact to short-term ups and downs of the market, McClure and Schwartz argue. “We massively overbuilt the number of housing units we needed, and we are still here in 2024 trying to absorb that massive overbuild in housing,” McClure said.  

From 2000 to 2010 the U.S. had a surplus of 4.6 million housing units, while in the following decade there was a shortage of 1.3 million fewer units than population growth would demand. All combined, that nets out to a surplus of 3.3 million homes from 2000 to 2020.  

The findings contrast with a plethora of research that points to a widespread shortage of new homes being constructed. Earlier this month, the housing website Zillow published an analysis that showed in 2022 there was a housing deficit of 4.5 million new homes. While a more recent survey from Realtor.com estimated that from 2012 to 2023 there was a shortage of 2.5 million homes.

However, these studies prefer to measure the construction of new homes, while McClure and Schwartz look at vacant homes. That on its own is a complicating factor. As the two cite in their paper, the physical condition of the vacant homes isn’t fully known. Some apartments may be sitting empty because a stubborn landlord refuses to lower the rent; others because they serve as a vacation home for an affluent family, while some may be entirely dilapidated and therefore uninhabitable—doing little to solve the housing crisis. 

A housing surplus that still prices out many

But the new finding about overall housing supply levels, which Schwartz says was a surprise, offers some nuance to one of the major problems in the housing market. 

“The issue is not so much about aggregate shortfall of housing units, but rather a mismatch between the cost of housing and the incomes of households,” Schwartz said. “Most especially among the lowest-income households, where there really is a mismatch between what they can afford and the number of units that are affordable.”

After this study, economists might debate the level of housing supply available in the U.S., but the core issue appears to remain the same: affordability.  

The researchers found a shortage of housing that low- and very low-income families could afford. Low-income families were defined as those with incomes between 30% and 60% of the median in a given market, while very low-income families were those making less than 30% of the median—roughly equivalent to the poverty line, according to the paper. 

McClure tries to distinguish between households making around $45,000 a year, which might be on a tight budget, and those making less than $22,000, which are the poorest in the U.S. When assessing the rental markets in 381 metropolitan areas and 526 small towns, the research found that there was an average shortage of about 7,700 units that the very poorest households, making under $22,000, could afford, according to the study. 

For those households, which require government assistance to find housing, the absolute highest they could afford to pay for rent is $550. Building new homes and apartment buildings can’t address the shortage for the absolute poorest. McClure explains that no private developer can build a new home or apartment that would be within the price range for the poorest of the poor. “Even if you could build the unit for $0, there is absolutely no way a private developer can build a unit at that [$550] price and survive,” McClure says. “Just the property taxes, insurance, and utility costs are north of that number.” 

So the answer is to help them afford the housing that is available. McClure and Schwartz recommend offering more Section 8 housing choice vouchers that subsidize rent payments.  

“In many circumstances, it is best to make use of existing stock rather than pay the very large sums needed to add stock to an already ample market,” the paper reads. “Helping low-income households rent existing units is much less costly than building deeply subsidized units with rents affordable to low-income households.” 

Building new homes can reduce prices in the long term

But that’s not to say McClure and Schwartz are against building new housing. Cities and towns should look to build “a wider array of housing types,” according to Schwartz, such as smaller units or higher density housing

The reason new housing inventory will need to be built, even during a surplus, is because rents and home prices can’t be expected to come down on their own. “It’s very unlikely to think that existing households on their own would just reduce their sales price unless they were required to for some reason,” Schwartz said. 

Building more housing is also seen as an effective way to lower rents. A seminal piece of research from NYU’s Furman Center found that building more homes actually lowers rents

New housing developments often raise the fears of gentrification; that existing residents will get priced out of ritzy new apartments in formerly affordable neighborhoods. The Furman Center research contends that the law of supply and demand holds true in the housing market as well. 

A widely cited example from 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand, found that when about three-quarters of the city was rezoned to allow for denser housing construction, housing supply increased 4%. Meanwhile, rents for three-bedroom apartments dropped 26% to 33% compared with similar areas, according to a working paper from May 2023.    

Other studies have found the effect of new housing isn’t usually as stark as the Auckland example. More often than not, overall rents do still rise when new housing is built, but not as quickly as they would have otherwise. 

McClure doesn’t disagree with that research, but notes that it doesn’t address the poorest of the poor. “Alex and I are not looking to lower $2,000 rents to $1,800—that little difference is not enough,” McClure says. “We are truly trying to find ways to rent apartments to people who cannot afford more than $500 a month.”

9tr6gyp3 , in "The number of new homes completed and available for sale is at the highest levels since 2009"
Justas , in US new home sales plunged unexpectedly last month | CNN Business
@Justas@sh.itjust.works avatar

Many buyers are hoping for a market capitulation.

HootinNHollerin , in Pro predicting CRE crash could trigger a sell-off in residential RE

It’s basically my only hope of buying a house so time to be saving.

Also this seems pretty severe

Commercial-real-estate foreclosures jumped 117% year over year in just the first quarter

stoly , in Some homeowners are doing surprisingly badly, even as their homes grow more valuable than ever

This is a nothing burger. They even say that the people who are struggling got into too much home to begin with. They made up a whole article about people buying houses that are too expensive for their incomes.

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