Are you assuming that this is the probability with which he may be elected, or the probability that Christo-fascism will take over once he is reelected? Because once he's in, all the groundwork has been laid, there's no "if" at that point anymore.
No, there's still multiple possibilities to stop him after that, things like military coups. Though I do not really want to discuss that, so don't bother asking. It doesn't really matter, because our best and most important is right in front of us, and that is what matters.