@kta@hostux.social avatar

kta

@kta@hostux.social

Scientist and software engineer (#python, #go, #c, #rust, #linux, #freebsd, #kubernetes, #geospatial, #computervision, #sql, #foss). I study the intersection of technology, climate change, economics, and agriculture. Stay hungry, stay foolish.

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inquiline , to histodons group
@inquiline@union.place avatar

Can anyone recommend readings on the historical intersection between and ? TY!

(May have asked this before but still looking for leads)

@sts @academicchatter @histodons

kta ,
@kta@hostux.social avatar

Donella Meadows book Thinking in Systems is a good (but dated) introduction to feedback modeling and systems design in ecology. I've always held-out hope that Agent-Based stimulative modeling would advance sufficiently to simulate the behavior of actors governed by these broad systems patterns. And in a way that could include spatial processes in the modeling. Our computers are big enough now.🙂

[1] https://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/
[2] https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-statistics-010814-020218

@inquiline @sts @academicchatter @histodons

rbreich , to random
@rbreich@masto.ai avatar

Your Friday reminder that trickle-down economics is a cruel hoax. Cruel because it's used by the super-rich to avoid paying their fair share of taxes. A hoax because nothing has ever trickled down.

kta ,
@kta@hostux.social avatar

@rbreich well, something trickles down to us. The tax burden.

rbreich , to random
@rbreich@masto.ai avatar

The price of Huggies diapers went up 6% between April- June 2023.

Inflation, right? Wrong.

Kimberly-Clark, the maker of Huggies, reported that the cost to make its products fell by $75 million.They took the money and ran, banking $168 million in operating profits in Q3 2023.

Now, new research shows that corporate profits drove 53% of inflation during the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2023. During the 40 years prior to the pandemic, profits drove just 11% of price growth.

kta ,
@kta@hostux.social avatar

@rbreich The worst part is they've already gotten away with it. Earning per-share for all S&P 500 companies vs US inflation rate. The biggest companies in the US raised their prices to drive record earnings when interest rates were low. Now they will downsize their workforces and slash prices as inflation eases and the fed cools the economy.

[1] https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings

image/png

jackofalltrades , to random
@jackofalltrades@mas.to avatar

I opened the first IPCC report, released in 1990, and copied their scenario graph for CO2 emissions.

I marked the latest data with a red dot. Carbon dioxide emissions in 2023 were 40.7 GtCO2 (= 11.09 GtC).

Whatever you think about the IPCC you must admit their business-as-usual calculations were pretty robust.

Edit: previous version of this post also talked about methane, but here story is not as clear, see down below: https://mas.to/@jackofalltrades/111731258956894444

kta ,
@kta@hostux.social avatar

@jackofalltrades the alternative scenarios used in the early IPCC reporting were quite bad. Business-as-usual is just the null model. I would hope that the IPCC got that right.

What this shows is that we need better alternatives for the null model. And clearer pathways to implement them. Otherwise you'll open this figure again in 10 years and draw another red dot on the business-as-usual line. And we'll get more comments like "we're doomed. lolz".

kta ,
@kta@hostux.social avatar

@jackofalltrades @meena -- We've given the old RCPs up. The new RCPs (which are more actionable) are so different, that we struggle with comparisons with predictions made against the older (AR4) RCPs (attached).

Regarding the alternative scenarios, I do think it's for us to say. All of us -- but climate scientists in particular -- need to play an active role in understanding and guiding the RCPs, so we can facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1385

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