My mistake. They weren't supposed to be estimates, they were supposed to be actual figures, and rather than say "we haven't collected enough data" or "we don't want to give out the actual data" the decision was made to use an outdated extrapolation measure and which was then reported as fact, or if you prefer, allowed to be interpreted as fact.
That's why I was sceptical.
But another comment suggests that China might actually be struggling, and it's that which is the cause of the downturn in usage.
I'd rather it wasn't that. Recessions suck and it's the wrong people (regular citizens) who suffer.