hrefna ,
@hrefna@hachyderm.io avatar

I regret to inform everyone that I am back on my BS.

wikicliff ,
@wikicliff@fosstodon.org avatar

@hrefna
Oh, good. For a moment I was afraid you were back to ActivityPub. (Please tell me that isn't ActivityPub! 🤪)

hrefna OP ,
@hrefna@hachyderm.io avatar

@wikicliff Lol. It is 100% not AP.

hrefna OP ,
@hrefna@hachyderm.io avatar

@wikicliff (it's worse. much, much worse)

wikicliff ,
@wikicliff@fosstodon.org avatar

@hrefna Eeek. I think the last modeling I did was with Play-Doh, and advanced modeling was not eating it. 😜

Is it something like a simulation with lots of things interacting? I used to think about these things back in the day when I wanted to write a better Dwarf Fortress simulator. Otherwise I have no idea what you are doing.

hrefna OP ,
@hrefna@hachyderm.io avatar

@wikicliff Ja. It's a model with about 3000 variables that are all dependent on each other.

The short version is that it is attempting to predict the outcome of the presidential election using a set of priors and then sharpening that information with additional polling.

The slightly longer version is it is an attempt to implement my take on Linzer's paper:

https://votamatic.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Linzer-JASA13.pdf

wikicliff ,
@wikicliff@fosstodon.org avatar

@hrefna That does sound like an interesting model to play with. Unfortunately this 500 character margin is too small... 😜

From a technical/simulation side one also has lots of interesting choices. I might start with prototype object-oriented code, but I also like Entity Component Systems. (I wonder if a lot of ECS-style coding could be adapted for modern GPUs turning nasty/slow control flow into data.) Of course I'm sure you've gone lots of steps past that already. Hope you have fun (or Fun)!

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