hrefna OP , 20 days ago @iinavpov My background is mathematical modeling, I assure you I know what it means when someone predicts a 30% chance of something happening. His model is not "transparent," it is the opposite of transparent. I cannot replicate his model if I sat down with the same data and toolkits. Contrast with Drew Linzer (https://votamatic.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Linzer-JASA13.pdf) or Sam Wang (https://github.com/Princeton-Election-Consortium). We could also chat about his bizarre COVID takes, his use of right-leaning language, or his more classical punditry.
@iinavpov My background is mathematical modeling, I assure you I know what it means when someone predicts a 30% chance of something happening.
His model is not "transparent," it is the opposite of transparent. I cannot replicate his model if I sat down with the same data and toolkits.
Contrast with Drew Linzer (https://votamatic.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Linzer-JASA13.pdf) or Sam Wang (https://github.com/Princeton-Election-Consortium).
We could also chat about his bizarre COVID takes, his use of right-leaning language, or his more classical punditry.