The horizontal position of the solid colored circle is the percentage (further to the right means higher) and the opaque color band is the margin for error.
No, the fascists won. A short and victorious Civil War with minimal casualties where all rightoids are executed follows shortly hopefully, but I don't think average Joe is down for that sadly 😔
He wasn't particularly keen on Biden 2020, so I wonder how much influence he really has with him personally. He could rally the troops for an intervention though.
An individual poll might be but agreggate polls definitely can show a trend. The trend is not good for Biden. He took all the wind out of his sails last week. I'm in the anyone but trump camp but how can anyone in good faith argue with an undecided that Biden has another four years in him?
Records are great but elections are about the future.
One of my former wives told me to just at least look for a little optimism, so here goes...
I think you could make an argument this might be “rock bottom” for a Democratic campaign given the media narrative over the past week.
But Trump still can’t hit 50% or get over the hump to a majority. So the one possible good takeaway is that this would indicate that if we could get our shit together, there’s hope.
A new New York Times/Siena poll finds Donald Trump leading Joe Biden nationally among registered voters by eight percentage points, 49% to 41%.
Among likely voters, Trump leads by six percentage points, 49% to 43%.
Overall, 74% of voters view Biden as too old for the job, an uptick of eight points since the debate.
Nate Cohn: “In each case, it’s a three-point shift toward Mr. Trump since the last Times/Siena survey, taken immediately before the debate.”
“Historically, a three-point shift after the first debate isn’t unusual. In fact, it’s the norm. Over the last seven presidential elections, the person generally considered the winner of the first presidential debate has gained an average of three points in post-debate polls
A majority of every demographic, geographic and ideological group in the poll — including Black voters and those who said they will still be voting for him — believe Mr. Biden, 81, is too old to be effective.
The poll offers early empirical evidence of what many Democrats have feared: That Mr. Biden’s faltering debate performance has further imperiled his chances against Mr. Trump this fall.
After the debate, 42 percent of voters view Mr. Trump as too old for the job, an increase of three points from a week prior that was driven heavily by Democrats.
Mr. Trump has made appeals to machismo a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign, making his first public appearance after his felony conviction related to paying hush money to a porn star a visit to a U.F.C.
The share of voters paying a lot of attention to the campaign was jolted up 9 percentage points in the wake of the much-discussed debate.
In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error.
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