I was really surprised to discover that even Harris is polled as out performing Biden, especially among black voters, independents and suburban women. And she's distanced herself from Biden on Israel in the past, so she really fixes a lot of the problems with the Biden admin. Plus she's probably less squeamish on abortion.
I think the main wild card here would be whether or not her nomination galvanized racists and bigots to come out to oppose her, but my gut says the energy created within the Democratic party by Biden leaving would still overwhelm bigoted backlash.
She would be a disappointing first woman president, but I suppose we can't really be precious about that.
100% true and why I was so against Biden and the DNC letting CNN run the debate...
Biden supporters told me I was wrong then, now they tend to agree
But a poll is a poll and this one seems fine:
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters. Surveys were conducted either online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. For results among registered voters, it is plus or minus 3.7 points.
Unless this like when trumpets and Hillary supporters started claiming polls don't matter...
Hillary supporters said it in 2016, and polls were right and it was a coin toss...
Trumpets said it in 2020, and polls were right and trump lost...
Which is why I'm so concerned Biden supporters are saying it in 2024.
And I don't understand why if CNN should never be trusted, Biden and the DNC handing them the keys to the debates isn't a mark against Biden and the DNC and the type of decisions they're making...
For those who don't read articles, here is the paragraph from the linked article that really drives the point home.
“I would like to see CNN evolve back to the kind of journalism that it started with, and actually have journalists, which would be unique and refreshing,” he said. Then he suggested a model: “Fox News, in my opinion, has followed an interesting trajectory of trying to have ‘news’ news, I mean some actual journalism, embedded in a program schedule of all opinions.”
Among the full US public, Biden’s favorability rating stands at just 34%, with 58% viewing him unfavorably. And while many of the Democratic names bandied about as possible replacements for Biden are less widely disliked, none would start with more public goodwill – instead, they are less well known. Harris has the widest recognition – and is also deeply underwater, with a 29% favorability rating, 49% rating her unfavorably, and 22% saying they have no opinion or haven’t heard of her. Roughly half of the public has no opinion on Buttigieg (50%) and Newsom (48%), with about two-thirds (69%) offering no opinion of Whitmer.
Whitimer is looking like the best bet that the DNC would support, and since her kidnapping attempt, shed at least take the threat of fascism seriously.
Here's Trump's numbers to compare:
The events of the past several months have done little to shift Trump’s image either way. Since April, Trump has been found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records at his New York hush money trial and had a debate performance widely viewed as a win (76% of voters who watched or followed news about it say he did the better job in last week’s debate, while only 23% say Biden did). But his favorability rating remains deeply negative: 39% have a favorable view of Trump and 54% an unfavorable one, about the same as it has been since last fall. The pool of double-hater voters – those with unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump – remains about the same: 18% fall into that category, and they break in Trump’s favor, 41% to 31%.
In a matchup between the presumptive major-party nominees, voters nationwide favor former President Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April, and consistent with the lead Trump has held in CNN polling back to last fall.
Biden’s campaign has insisted he will not drop out of the race, and while some Democratic insiders have privately discussed the possibility of replacing him as the nominee, any path forward would be both logistically difficult and politically risky.
And a generic congressional matchup in the poll suggests a near-even contest for the House of Representatives: 47% of registered voters nationwide would choose the Republican candidate in their district, 45% the Democrat.
Among Biden’s backers, 31% say the most important difference is around honesty and integrity, while the top response among Trump’s supporters is fitness for the job (24% say that).
The president’s central challenge in his reelection bid remains winning over skeptical and persuadable voters, and the poll suggests neither Biden nor Trump have won them over yet.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from June 28-30 among a random national sample of 1,274 adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,045 registered voters.
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