rottingleaf

rottingleaf , 18 hours ago

Yep, but they weren't going to win globally, though locally we'd likely have some of the following, depending on the point in time where the assassination happens:

1. German version of Hirohito, only it wasn't a monarchy, so likely the new dear leader would be a figurehead in a western puppet government, kinda similar to how it really happened, but without apologies, without reparations, without big trials and with formal and aesthetic preservation of the German Empire, and of course they'd be known for nice cartoons, cool language and really weird engineering (OK, this part happened irl, so nvm) ;

2. German version of Atatürk, with his NSDAP 2.0 rebranded (same as with Kemalists being slightly rebranded Young Turks), which is totally not NSDAP, and lots of stupid people would praise them for fixing the mistakes of previous incompetent and criminal leaders (including Holocaust, which was committed by a totally different party and totally different state, but still didn't happen, and if it happened, then they deserved it, and we'll do it again), ah, and of course the German Empire keeping Silesia, East Prussia, northern Schleswig and maybe even Austria, and continuing analogies, I'd expect Sudetes and Danzig and whatever too ;

3. Something similar to the "Fatherland" movie, not in the sense of Nazis winning, but in the sense of society and, again, crimes against humanity ;

4. Some peace without WWII starting or around early 1942, highly improbable seeing how eager they were to do it all, but - then maybe a very slow Mexican duel of a Cold War.

rottingleaf , 18 hours ago

You are not that naive to think it's his murder that caused WWI, yes? It's well known that all sides had been preparing for world war.

Serbia accepted all parts of the AH ultimatum, except for one, which was a complete violation of sovereignty.

There were no significant negotiations over this, because that ultimatum was not intended to be accepted.

Germany and Russia and France and Italy all mobilized without all these things we hear today about new red lines and negotiations and compromises in Ukraine and elsewhere. Humans have not changed, it's just that war was certain to happen. The archduke's murder was not, but it was very convenient since he was a rather peacemaking figure.

rottingleaf , 18 hours ago

Turks in practice won. They lost parts of their empire they would be unable to control for long anyway. They murdered everyone they didn't like in the parts they liked and had their sovereignty over those recognized by "civilized" countries. And the world after that war made them useful for everyone else.

Japan, well, wasn't too happy with its share in the outcome of WWI, but clearly won.

rottingleaf , 2 hours ago (edited 2 hours ago)

Serbia accepted all parts of the AH ultimatum, except for one, which was a complete violation of sovereignty.

There were no significant negotiations over this, because that ultimatum was not intended to be accepted.

My comment was specific enough, go fuck yourself.

EDIT: Also using tired metaphors like "powder keg" in the context of WWI does the opposite of making your argument stronger. Argumentation is about logic, not about conforming to style. You might also want to lose that smug tone, it's equivalent to spending your opponent's goodwill on something unconnected to the subject. You might call the situation where everybody wants war a "powder keg", yes, but that doesn't really matter, war already was in the air for a few years before the assassination. In newspapers, in diplomacy, in preparations for their own grand victory by all big powers. Since Balkan wars (Ottomans losing trust in British world order), Bosnia and Herzegovina (South Slavs realizing they are food), Russo-Japanese war (ruining Russian friendship with Germany and Austria).

rottingleaf , 18 hours ago

Well, such moments in politics show us that rats do not, in fact, jump the ship first.

Still two groups of very shady people pitting a senile man (also a pro-Soviet politician in his younger years and probably a crook, but let's forget this) against a mentally impaired man (who could get a few life sentences were he not that important) look disgusting.

rottingleaf , 18 hours ago

He's just glad they used Monica instead. More pleasant, humane and all that.

rottingleaf , 18 hours ago

I highly doubt that, staging something like this would be an insanely dangerous move, a slight miss from the shooter in such a scenario would be lethal, and given other people at the event seem to have been killed, it seems clear that lethal rounds were used. Trump may be a fan of ridiculous stunts, but he’s also pretty self interested; I do not think he would risk his own life for such a stunt.

He's mentally impaired from neurosyphilis by now. How can people believe he's the only person making decisions there?

If someone else planned this, then him not dying means his popularity rising, him dying means him becoming a martyr and his side's popularity rising.

I'm not claiming it happened this way or any specific way.

Just a very rare event to say something certainly, but this definitely changes the situation for a lot of money, if we express power in money. That means somebody could have made an effort of the same magnitude.