Most probably the US government will not make it through the ongoing climate catastrophe in its current form. The US leadership is far too irrational and operates on a maximalist logic for pretty much everything.
I assume that a combination of water shortages, epidemics, mass immigration and energy crunches will trigger a political crisis in the southern part of the US. The union might survive this crisis, but the damage will be done and some years later down the line, the US will balkanize. During this turbulent period, there is a possibility that some parts of the US become socialist, and from that point onward, the continent becomes locked in a few decades of struggle similar to the warlord era of China after which some socialist faction gains total domination after a bloody civil war.
Alternatively, it is possible for a military coup in the US, during which the US does not balkanize. The resulting state will most certainly not be socialist, and likely face a lot of internal resistance for years to come. This military junta will eventually be forced to give up power (as most military juntas have trouble keeping power forever). The state that comes after will also likely not be socialist, as any military junta will probably continue to interfere in the democratic process. It is difficult to imagine exactly how the US could become socialist in a reasonable time frame in this scenario.
Either way, the US will probably not become socialist before 2050. Probably the US will face a major crisis or world war by the end of the 2030s, but the state that comes after a collapse won't be socialist right away, and the situation will take further decades to resolve.
IMO- and to a (marginally) lesser extent the same applies to the rest of the Anglosphere- what remains of the US will perhaps transition to socialism, after having tried everything else, and having put its people and the world at large through such a wringer that they'll have legitimately no other option besides it.
Doesn't sound very optimistic, but it is what it (presumably) is. It'll probably go from one form of fascism to another, balkanization, and even attempting to start WW3 (the rest of the world is going to have a hell of a time containing the US in this regard- by all appearances IMO US, whether in its present regime or in its hegemonic, genocidal ideology, is a ticking time bomb threatening all of humanity, and I fully expect they'll try- and it'll be a matter of whether the rest of the world, or perhaps even the few sensible minds in the US itself, can prevent that or mitigate the damage).
TBH, I don't really make a distinction between 90% of amerikkkans and zionazis. Isn'treal is a mirror image of the US, but owing to the lack of self-awareness, do not recognize what they see as themselves.
The US is fucked more by its bootlicking brainrot than by its awful leadership. Given even the most ideal revolutionary conditions it's far more likely to produce a neo-freikorps regime than anything resembling socialism due to living in their ultra-nationalist, anti-communist propaganda bubble for so many generations. I hope with all my heart that I'm wrong, but I am not optimistic.
It will go fully fascist first, then collapse. After that it might become socialist. Other scenarios are possible, including a civil war, but I see fash->collapse as the most likely.
Oh yes, certainly. I always go with the presumption that there will be no socialist USA, it will be a different country. I just mean the land, middle North America. What is the US today
Complex question. The stage of socialism that China is at? Or when it will fall to a revolution?
I think it's kind of pointless to try to estimate further than the next qualitative change towards socialism (so, revolution), so I'm just going to put my answer for the revolution ETA.
And that is I have really no idea. None of us do, but if you are on the ground involved with an organization and engaging in the work as we all should be, you'll see that things are far worse (conditions wise) than even a year ago. People are struggling and unhappy. Revolutionary tinge is growing.
This election year is going to be hell at the end, and I wouldn't be surprised if things got significantly worse before the next inauguration. We just saw the insane SCOTUS ruling(s). Maybe something big happens in 2025 and succeeds, maybe it happens and is quashed and pushes back revolution for another few years.
The only thing that is very clear is that this cannot go on for much longer. I truthfully cannot see this country surviving status quo for another 10 years. It either will devolve into total, mask-off fascism (more than it is already, talking Nazi shit) or we will get done what needs to get done. But this will end soon.
I mean this respectfully, but here's a thought exercise: What's the actual criteria needed to upgrade Amerikkka from "mask-off fascism" to "[actual] nazi shit"...
Openly committing a genocide? Invading Russia? Arming and paying Ukrainians to terrorize Russians and communists? Brownshirts roam streets in larger cities? Hatred of Marxism? Oppression of non-state-sanctioned journalism? Brutal state oppression of opposition or protest? Perpetual state of war? Subjugating Europe? Leibensraum facilitated by ethnic cleansing? Industrial propaganda machine? Violent ultra-nationalism and military worship? Country held hostage by popular genocidal old man prosecuting a world war?
Now start a timer as you look for the line that hasn't been crossed yet.
Nah you're right. They're already there and have been for a long time. I guess there's no quantifiable measurement after they've hit fascism, y'know? So I just used that instead of saying "oogabooga BIGGER fascism" cause I mean. How much worse can it get? A lot, but also, not really that much considering what things could be. Idk
Deathsquads, genocide, death camps, ethnic cleansing, slavery - inside of the US, without any apearances. Much of that is currently either externalized to other countries or hidden via the MSM.
Remember fascism is the techniques of colonialism being applied on the homeland.