In the event that Trump is in prison, or has a heart attack next month, or whatever, you'd see a depression among MAGA voters in the election. They wouldn't be enthusiastic and plenty of them would stay home. Trump gets really big turnout in these types and total votes would go below 2012 Republican numbers. For instance in 2020 Trump got 74 million votes. In 2012 Romney got 60 million. In 2008 McCain got 59 million. It's not that 14 million people shifted to the right after 2012, it's that they all came out to vote.