So it all comes down to “do Republicans want to win badly enough that they can suppress their racism and misogyny and vote for a woman of color”. Republicans like winning, but NEVER bet against racism and misogyny with that crew.
Also, a large fraction of the base WILL vote for Trump, and only Trump, whether he’s on the ballot or not, which hurts Haley. And there’s no evidence that the R’s have won over a single new voter since 2020, when they lost.
This all turns on how badly Biden does with HIS base, and that is currently pretty worrying. Democratic voters like unproductive petulance at least as much as Republican voters like racism and misogyny.