jordanlund Mod , 24 days ago (edited 24 days ago)

Yup, this is why we follow it over time.

It went from pro Biden, to waffling back and forth, to pro Trump, to waffling back and forth, and now, here we are!

Let's check the usual suspects:

Arizona: Tie, Biden+2, Trump+2-+4 Waffling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

Nevada: Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/

New Mexico: No useful polling.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/

Georgia: Trump +5/+6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

North Carolina: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

Pennsylvania: Biden +1/+2 to Trump +2 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Michigan: Tie to Trump+1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

Wisconsin: Biden +2/+7 to Trump +1 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/wisconsin/

Minnesota: Tie, Biden+2, Trump +3/+5 Waffling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/minnesota/

What this looks like mapped out:

https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/648a9077-ec86-422e-a776-b5ace900795b.jpeg

This actually is an improvement for Biden who had been losing several of these.

If Trump takes either PA or MI, it's game over. He only needs one of them to win.

After that, Trump needs any 2 of the remaining 4 states to win and Biden needs 3/4.

If Biden takes Wisconsin and Minnesota, and Trump takes Arizona, that means it will all come down to New Mexico and we have ZERO useful polling out of New Mexico, absolutely none.