As an afterthought, I also think the fact that openSUSE and its users seem to be pathologically unable to create any logo or symbol for anything even tangentially related to the distribution that doesn't look like absolute shit might be holding them back.
As shallow as it might seem, good branding is really important, since it has the power to instantly convey vision or commitment to a project.
But to your point about low-maintenance distros, I wonder how the immutable landscape will look in the next five years!