Russia’s economy ‘in for very tough times’ despite improved growth outlook, IMF managing director says ( www.cnbc.com )

Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/8866314

In late January, the International Monetary Fund more than doubled its forecast for the pace of the country’s economic growth this year, raising it from 1.1% in October to 2.6%.

Despite this, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva sees more trouble ahead for the country of roughly 145 million.

“What it tells us is that this is a war economy in which the state — which let’s remember, had a very sizeable buffer, built over many years of fiscal discipline — is investing in this war economy. If you look at Russia, today, production goes up, [for the] military, [and] consumption goes down. And that is pretty much what the Soviet Union used to look like. High level of production, low level of consumption.”

Gradually_Adjusting ,
@Gradually_Adjusting@lemmy.world avatar

Things got worse? In Russia?

hydroptic ,

Unprecedented!

SamsonSeinfelder ,

White House briefing February 25, 2022 (Day 2 of the war)

Deputy National Security Advisor: Daleep Singh

Ultimately, the goal of our sanctions is to make this a strategic failure for Russia; and let’s define a little bit of what that means. Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done. In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.

hydroptic ,

I wouldn't declare this a strategic loss for Russia yet. Extreme right wing parties are on a meteoric rise across Europe, and a very large percentage of them are explicitly pro-Russian and literally funded by Russia (see eg this well-sourced opinion piece). Russia represents an ideal for these people, and they aren't a fringe anymore but 20–50% of the population depending on the EU country

deft ,

US too. Look at the NRA and the cultural implications of it. That's just one bit too.

Putin is much different from the leadership before him on a lot of points but one big one is his relationship with the Eastern Orthodox religious system in Russia. I often wonder how that parallels or finds itself tied to the Evangelical Christian alt right weirdness stuff you see in America

iopq ,

Guns are not legal in Russia, so not sure what you're talking about

deft ,

How is that relevant at all? lol

iopq ,

How is NRA relevant?

deft ,

Maria Butina is the only name you'd have to look up to understand

photoncollector ,
@photoncollector@mastodon.social avatar

@deft @hydroptic
The leader of the Orthodox Church, is an (ex?) KGB agent who became very rich, through illegal tobacco dealings arranged for him by Putin.

deft ,

Didn't even know that holy fuck. Lol

MrMakabar ,

If they do not conquer Ukraine, then they lost them as friends. In 2009 in a servey 93% liked Russians. Even 2019 77% of Ukranians had a positive attitude towards Russia. That is basically the other way around today.

They lost Armenia, when they betrayed them in their fight with the Azeris.

In Europe it is 20-50% depending on the country liking Russia and the rest hating them. Not just in Eastern Europe, but also in the West.

In Central Asia a lot of countries are moving away from Russia. They hear Russian politicans talking about restoring the Soviet Union and they do not like that.

0x815 OP ,

@SamsonSeinfelder

The sad truth is that it is a failure for Russia in the very long term, for entire generations. There will be no big crash imo, but the current sliding into backwardness will continue for a very long time, even when the war is over.

photoncollector ,
@photoncollector@mastodon.social avatar

@0x815 @SamsonSeinfelder I agree. I see no prospect of a sudden collapse in Russia, just a glacially slow deepening of cracks that are already visible. I don't see any chance that the Russian population will 'rise up' and change things. The Russian mentality is deeply rooted in stoicism, and the inevitability of suffering. I see one possible future in which Russia becomes a 'slavic' version of North Korea, but that is only one possible future. Any change which does take place will be very slow.

MrMakabar ,

Wagner happened. It failed, but it is the kind of even, which could change Russia very quickly. Due to sanctions and massive losses in Ukraine the bases for big changes is being laid.

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