swlabr ,

106 comments

only 7 top level comments

Thank you lord for this feast you have blessed me with.

Soyweiser ,

How much worse it must be for the people in the lemmieverse (are we calling it that?) who don't have accounts on awful.sys directly. The neuralink is life extension (unless you are a monkey) that proves Ray is right person is still going at it.

self Mod ,
@self@awful.systems avatar

oh I’m not at all surprised. part of why we ban early and often is it’s very easy for posters like that to flood threads with utter bullshit, beyond anyone’s amusement but their own, much faster than anyone can respond with anything approaching the truth (because writing truth takes time, but being a big pain in the ass fanboy for a telephone psychic takes no time at all)

Valmond ,

Can someone explain why this level of hate?

I mean dude wrote a book about exponential progress (it works well in computers IMO) and tried to predict a lot of stuff. I read that lots of his predictions was "sort of" correct too?

Edit: thanks for nothing I guess. Downvotes and scorn lol.

Edit2: omg is reddit incels leaking or what?

froztbyte ,

you could just have read downthread for actual details before posting, y'know. that waaaah edit isn't helping

V0ldek ,
@V0ldek@awful.systems avatar

searches for who tf this is

Wikipedia:
https://awful.systems/pictrs/image/ff27eebc-2d4a-45cd-912f-f67479cdde45.png

Lol, this is the most passive-aggressive way of saying "known for absolutely nothing of value to anyone or anything" I've seen.

reallykindasorta ,

His synths are still legendary

AllNewTypeFace OP ,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

Synths are to him what linguistics is to Chomsky

Varyk ,

Kurzweil has been right on tons of his predictions.

What a shitty, ignorant title.

jonhendry ,
@jonhendry@iosdev.space avatar

@Varyk

Name ten.

Varyk ,

Easy peasy:

  1. Computers would beat humans at chess(happened in 1998)

  2. Digital information explosion(The information on the internet rapidly becoming too much for the entire world to read)

  3. Medicine becoming information technology(genomic, sequencing and crispr)

  4. The inevitability of direct human computer interfacing (neuralink)

  5. Life extension(cryonics/neuralink)

  6. AI becoming a major industry(AI)

  7. Computers built into eyeglasses(google glass)

  8. Cpu processing speed explosion(Moore's law)

  9. PCs would be able to answer questions wirelessly (search engines and the internet)

  10. Exoskeletons render the disabled able (3d printable prosthetic limbs)

There are many, many more correct predictions by this guy

pikesley ,
@pikesley@mastodon.me.uk avatar

@Varyk @jonhendry Neuralink? How's that going? I presume extremely well with no problems, I haven't got time to check right now

Varyk ,

Why did you think it was working well with no problems?

One of the first successful human-cpu interfaces?

You hecka optimistic.

I mean, it's pretty crazy how well the design did work considering it's the first of its kind.

The latest thing I saw, a bunch of the wires are becoming detached from the very first prototype, which of course is being worked into the subsequent models.

mawhrin ,
@mawhrin@awful.systems avatar

you do not have much medical knowledge, do you?

self Mod ,
@self@awful.systems avatar

Literally the first human-cpu interface?

I wish I had the confidence of a techbro who thinks any of the BCI tech in neuralink is new and isn’t just a set of techniques that have existed for decades and have a shitty track record

the only thing neuralink seems to add is wireless control, which doesn’t work, partially due to impossible bandwidth and compression requirements, but mostly because it’s a project driven by Musk’s whims

Soyweiser ,

partially due to impossible bandwidth and compression requirements

It still amazes me they publicly posted a request for help with these compression req which are physically impossible to achieve. Nobody with a CS degree is anybody near the leadership of neuralink. In other words, you are downplaying how impossible the requirements were.

jonhendry ,
@jonhendry@iosdev.space avatar

@Varyk @pikesley

Not the first, actually a late entrant.

I worked in a lab using implanted brain-computer interfaces 14 years ago.

Other labs using the same system had monkeys controlling robot arms, and a human controlling a computer.

self Mod ,
@self@awful.systems avatar

I seriously don’t know where these fuckers have been that they’re supposedly excited about implanted BCIs now that musk’s doing a monstrously shitty one, but somehow they managed not to ever read about any of the previous research into this that had the same outcome as neuralink (basic, inaccurate computer mouse control) with the same major caveats (the electrodes become unusable in short order due to scarring and can’t be repaired), except that the neuralink version is unnecessarily risky* cause startups gotta go fast

[*] and the risk here is that something truly fucking awful will happen to the patient, because it’s the fucking human brain and they’re treating it like a submarine made of secondhand carbon fiber, including the ignored track record of failed lab tests before disaster struck

Amoeba_Girl ,
@Amoeba_Girl@awful.systems avatar

Literally the first human-cpu interface?

Pretty sure keyboards are older

blakestacey Mod ,
@blakestacey@awful.systems avatar

Some of Kurzweil's predictions in 1999 about 2009:

  • “Unused computes on the Internet are harvested, creating … human brain hardware capacity.”
  • “The online chat rooms of the late 1990s have been replaced with virtual environments…with full visual realism.”
  • “Interactive brain-generated music … is another popular genre.”
  • “the underclass is politically neutralized through public assistance and the generally high level of affluence”
  • “Diagnosis almost always involves collaboration between a human physician and a … expert system.”
  • “Humans are generally far removed from the scene of battle.”
  • “Despite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion”
  • “Cables are disappearing.”
  • “grammar checkers are now actually useful”
  • “Intelligent roads are in use, primarily for long-distance travel.”
  • “The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition (CSR) software”
  • “Autonomous nanoengineered machines … have been demonstrated and include their own computational controls.”
skillissuer ,
@skillissuer@discuss.tchncs.de avatar

“Humans are generally far removed from the scene of battle.”

if you have budget for that, against an enemy that doesn't

blakestacey Mod ,
@blakestacey@awful.systems avatar

"Humans are generally far removed from the scene of battle" (if you don't count the people that the drones are blowing up)

AllNewTypeFace OP ,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

To be fair, this can be made true by the simple expedient of redefining who counts as “human”

blakestacey Mod ,
@blakestacey@awful.systems avatar

Some of Kurzweil's predictions in 1999 about 2019:

A $1,000 computing device is now approximately equal to the computational ability of the human brain. Computers are now largely invisible and are embedded everywhere. Three-dimensional virtual-reality displays, embedded in glasses and contact lenses, provide the primary interface for communication with other persons, the Web, and virtual reality. Most interaction with computing is through gestures and two-way natural-language spoken communication. Realistic all-encompassing visual, auditory, and tactile environments enable people to do virtually anything with anybody regardless of physical proximity. People are beginning to have relationships with automated personalities as companions, teachers, caretakers, and lovers.

Also:

Three‐dimensional nanotube lattices are now a prevalent form of computing circuitry.

And:

Autonomous nanoengineered machines can control their own mobility and include significant computational engines.

And:

ʺPhoneʺ calls routinely include high‐resolution three‐dimensional images projected through the direct‐eye displays and auditory lenses. Three‐dimensional holography displays have also emerged. In either case, users feel as if they are physically near the other person. The resolution equals or exceeds optimal human visual acuity. Thus a person can be fooled as to whether or not another person is physically present or is being projected through electronic communication.

And:

The all‐enveloping tactile environment is now widely available and fully convincing. Its resolution equals or exceeds that of human touch and can simulate (and stimulate) all of the facets of the tactile sense, including the sensing of pressure, temperature, textures, and moistness. Although the visual and auditory aspects of virtual reality involve only devices you have on or in your body (the direct‐eye lenses and auditory lenses), the ʺtotal touchʺ haptic environment requires entering a virtual reality booth. These technologies are popular for medical examinations, as well as sensual and sexual interactions with other human partners or simulated partners. In fact, it is often the preferred mode of interaction, even when a human partner is nearby, due to its ability to enhance both experience and safety.

And:

Automated driving systems have been found to be highly reliable and have now been installed in nearly all roads.

And:

The type of artistic and entertainment product in greatest demand (as measured by revenue generated) continues to be virtual‐experience software, which ranges from simulations of ʺrealʺ experiences to abstract environments with little or no corollary in the physical world.

And:

The expected life span, which, as a (1780 through 1900) and the first phase result of the first Industrial Revolution of the second (the twentieth century), almost doubled from less than forty, has now substantially increased again, to over one hundred.

self Mod ,
@self@awful.systems avatar

Kurzweil really is indistinguishable from a shitty phone psychic, including the followers who cherry pick “correct” predictions and interpret the incorrect ones so loosely they could mean anything (I’m waiting for some fucker to pop up and go “yeah duh Apple Vision Pro” in response to half of those, ignoring the inconvenient “works well and is popular” parts of the predictions)

o7___o7 ,
@o7___o7@awful.systems avatar

the underclass is politically neutralized...

Jesus, Ray, phrasing

Amoeba_Girl ,
@Amoeba_Girl@awful.systems avatar

“Unused computes on the Internet are harvested, creating … human brain hardware capacity.”

Neuralink

“The online chat rooms of the late 1990s have been replaced with virtual environments…with full visual realism.”

VRChat

“Interactive brain-generated music … is another popular genre.”

Algoraves

“the underclass is politically neutralized through public assistance and the generally high level of affluence”

Obamacare

“Diagnosis almost always involves collaboration between a human physician and a … expert system.”

Asimo

suction ,

You are dumb

Amoeba_Girl ,
@Amoeba_Girl@awful.systems avatar

Thanks!

sc_griffith ,
@sc_griffith@awful.systems avatar

brain-generated music

???????

swlabr ,

“In the future, there will be brain-generated music”, said Ray Kay, to a young disciple.

“But Master Ray, isn’t music generally brain generated?”, the disciple asked.

“No, you fucking idiot. You fucking buffoon. How dare you question me,” replied Ray. It was then that the disciple reached enlightenment.

jonhendry ,
@jonhendry@iosdev.space avatar

@Varyk

Cryonics is a grift, nobody is going to be cured of death by future Dr Jesus.

AllNewTypeFace OP ,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

The pioneers of cryonics ended up as a very rich soup

BigMuffin69 ,
@BigMuffin69@awful.systems avatar

Only plebs pay for e-girl bathwater. I prefer to drink 30-year aged billionaire bisque (chilled of course)

Amoeba_Girl ,
@Amoeba_Girl@awful.systems avatar

Absolutely amazing post, thank you so much. So that's one correct prediction and nine on a spectrum from wrong to meaningless!

V0ldek ,
@V0ldek@awful.systems avatar
  1. Sure, I'm not even going to verify this one since it's so low stakes.
  2. This is ill-defined.
  3. Again ill-defined, and I need dates on this, we've been sequencing DNA for like 50yrs at this point.
  4. Lol, Neuralink kills monkeys, there's zero indication of its "inevitability".
  5. Lol^2, none of that shit works mate. Name one person whose life was extended with cryonics.
  6. AI is ill-defined, plus dates please.
  7. And how well did that go?
  8. First of all, that's called Moore's Law after the actual guy who made this prediction, you can't credit someone else than Moore for Moore's Law, wtf. Second, this hasn't held for at least a decade now; we've been focusing on completely different things than raw CPU speed to actually increase compute.
  9. "Answer questions" there is a load-bearing term. Did he mean search engines? Is this deriberately vague?
  10. I'm sorry? First, a 3D printed prosthetic is not an exoskeleton, what kind of a logic leap is that. Second, citation needed on "3D printable prosthetic limbs" actually being in use right now on any scale.
blakestacey Mod ,
@blakestacey@awful.systems avatar

"Computers will be really good at chess" was already a trope in 1960s science fiction. HAL 9000 is canonically so good that he was instructed to throw the game half the time so that his human opponents don't get bored. The Enterprise computer is so good that Spock being able to beat it — Spock — is a major plot point.

suction ,

If you think those are impressive, you’re very very stupid

AllNewTypeFace OP ,
@AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space avatar

I think this has been satisfactorily established by now

Soyweiser ,

I predict you are going to have a bad time here. And that is far before 2045.

(Edit: I hear you think, but predicting after a thing has already happened and keeps happening, that isn't really predicting now is it. And Varyk was enlightened).

Varyk ,

Haha, see, one prediction and it's already wrong.

That's why kurzweil is so impressive with all of his correct predictions.

suction ,

He’s been as right as Alex Jones has been

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