But it’s very rare for these kinds of crimes to elicit jail time to begin with
True, but his constant violations of gag orders and other examples of contempt (both in the colloquial and legal sense of the word) has made probation pretty much out of the question, even WITH the kid gloves.
It's a moot question if he wins in November (which is unfortunately looking likely right now) though, since the appeals process won't be done by then and he and his fascist sycophants will find a way to give him the power to pardon himself for state crimes.