My vote would be Fedora, too. I've been hopping between distros for 16 years now. Funnily enough, I switched from Arch to Fedora.
And it just works, no broken dependencies or breaking a sweat when you forgot to update for two weeks.
If you can get used to the concept of an immutable file system (as discussed by @Guenther_Amanita) + flatpaks, it is really a smooth system without hassle. You should upgrade to the next version every 6 months - worked flawlessly for me the last two times (you should do backups before obviously).
Lack of AUR could be a thing - how much do you use it? I would say, that is the only weak point for Fedora regarding your requirements.
For me, it's the perfect balance between recent packages , stability, and user experience.
Please let us know what you decided and why - I am curious to hear about your reasons!