Also if the single port that is exposed has vulnerabilities, then scanning the other ports might not be necessary. If the vulnerability on the opened port allow some kind of access, even without escalating privilege (i.e no root access) maybe localhost queries could be made and from there maybe escalating on another service that wouldn’t be exposed.
For sure, but this is a separate topic. The existence of a firewall is kind of independent of the security of the service listening on the port that it's expected to listen on. If there is a vulnerability in the service, the existence of a packet filtering firewall most likely won't be able to do anything to thwart it.
Finally on your initial question I’d argue if the firewall rules are equivalent then it would be equivalent but if they are a bit more refined than “just” open or close a port, e.g drop traffic that is not from within the LAN
Fair point! Still, though, I'm not super convinced of the efficacy of a packet filtering firewall running on a device in preventing malicious connections from itself, were a service running on it to become compromised. The only way that I can see it guaranteeing protection from this scenario is if it drops all packets, but, at that point, it's just an offline system -- no networking -- so the issue essentially no longer applies.